San Francisco 49ers 2021 Fantasy Football

San Francisco 49ers 2021 Fantasy Football featuring Geoff Lambert

Intro 00:05
You’re listening to the good old boys fantasy football podcast. Now here’s your host, Kevin, Derek and Alex.

Derek 00:13
Alright! Welcome and ladies and gentlemen to another episode of the good ol boys fantasy football Podcast. I am Derek and I am joined as always, by your co host, Kevin and Alex. We’ve also got a special guest coming to us tonight. That’s Geoff Lambert. He’s gonna be helping us break down our team of the week. That’s the San Francisco 49ers guys, let’s head on over that way. The 40 Niners coming off of a little bit of that Super Bowl hangover. This past year, they definitely were bitten by the injury bug. I know last year when we’re going through that we talked several times about the fact that who was bitten by the injury bug more the Broncos or the 49ers and it kind of kept coming down to that toss up going through. So they definitely had some some things not bounce in their favor. Let’s go ahead and start where we always do and that’s over in the running back room. Alright guys, let’s go and talk about Raheem Mostert, where he most hurt last year finished as running back 48 204 Rush’s 521 yards with two touchdown 16 receptions on 19 targets for an additional 156 to the air and one touchdown. Your thoughts on Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert RB San Francisco 49ers

Kevin 01:23
that everybody’s breakout and darling broke their neck was what happened last year. And it wasn’t you got hurt. I mean, that’s not his fault. But man oh man, he was the hot pick the way that he ended 2019 everyone was was really kind of pumping on that train there that he had cemented himself is kind of the the lead back he got paid. Coming into the 2020 season and then the poor guy just couldn’t get right just couldn’t get healthy. Even when he was healthy and playing. He was still only averaging about 45% of snap share which led the backfield while he was in, but he’s explosive. He has that big play ability. He’s also 28 years old, not as many miles on his resume, but he’s still there. On top of the fact that San Francisco likes to use that to back system right with the head. Tevin Coleman the head, remote start obviously Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson and jerk McKinnon There we go. Sorry, monster, do you still going to be the lead when healthy. Um, that being said, He’s without knowing when those big plays are going to come. he settles into middle to low RB to territory just because of how that timeshare split up. I like the kid I’m rooting for him. I hope he gets healthy and is able to do some really cool things there in San Francisco, 880 rushing yards, probably seven touchdowns. And then on the receiving end, you’re probably looking at about 65 targets, 4550 grabs, and you might squeeze another touchdown or two out of them. So it just doesn’t. It’s not explosive. He’s not a guy that I have to have on my roster. But he does have that allure, right, there’s still people who are holding out hope. So if you’re in a dynasty League, you still might be able to get some decent money for him. Before the season starts are decent money, decent compensation formed before the season starts. But if you can’t stay healthy, again, it’s gonna be pretty much the end of his NFL cycle, I don’t think that he’s going to be relevant if you can’t stay healthy this season.

Alex 03:37
So I’m going to start this off by saying that, you know, there are teams where you kind of want a piece of their offense, you kind of want a piece of you kind of want a piece of like their wide receiver room or whatever it is. This is a team that I don’t want any shares of their running back room because of the running back by committee that they that they employ. They’re in San Francisco and it’s it’s again to what Kevin said, it’s nothing against any of these individuals, it is everything against a system in which they play. So that That to me is is a giant red flag that pops up that will make me think twice about drafting a San Francisco running back or you know, making a deal to get a Ricky moster or, you know, Jeff Wilson and or whoever else is putting on a Niners jersey on Sunday, which There seems to be a big number of them, as we saw last year, so while I think Mostert is probably the safest of the place for the niners running backs, for me, it’s do think twice about it when I’m when you know, I’m not picking in Raheem Mostert territory, but I Kevin, I agree with you in your stat projections for him, but I don’t know that he’s a guy for me that it would take some convincing in order for me to hit the draft button on Raheem Mostert, I would probably use up my entire clock thinking about that one.

Geoff 05:19
Yes, I don’t know this is by design or not but I’m actually a Niners fan. I don’t know if y’all knew that ahead of time or just happens to be just a big fat coincidence, but Raheem mostert he, you guys kind of said I just want to echo the same thing. He’s kind of he is what he is. He’s a big play running back. That’s not going to be a volume guy. Especially in this offense. You know, Jeff Wilson will come in and spell him you know, to Michael hasty will come in at some point and spell him. Wilson is actually the better receiving back on this team. So if they are playing from behind for whatever reason that be Wilson on the field, more than likely, they prefer Wilson in the redzone over old rocky moster. So it’s just a mess. And it’s something that I don’t want a piece of events, and I don’t want a piece of it. And I’ve said this the last couple of years. If you’re going to draft a running back for the 40 Niners always go with the cheapest one, whoever the one is getting drafted the latest. And this worked out a few years ago. It was Matt Brieda had a great season. You know, last year it was a couple years ago it was running most or when he had that great you know, beginning of the season. So always go to the cheapest guy just pick the cheapest guy and just hope that he ends up getting a chance on the field because he’s gonna be good that offense is built to run and you can put me back there that can probably get four yards per carry it’s just it’s just that good of it. But the problem is is none of them are getting the volume so if there’s injuries or anything else take the cheapest guy you know hasti had a few games last year where he was relevant. And then the top all this off to as a fan. They are rumored to be looking at drafting running back so let’s just add one more running back into the mix there just to make it even more of a headache.

Derek 06:50
Geoff, you brought me around on that one I was firmly out on the niners and now I think I’ll you’ll be looking at the cheapest one available potentially adding him as maybe a fifth fifth running back onto my roster type of thing. Yeah,

Geoff 07:02
for free basically you get it for free and then they they’re gonna give you three or four good games cuz they’re gonna be some injuries. They’ll get thrown in there for a couple games and they’ll give you some value for a couple games. And that’s really all you need from that fifth running back or six running back.

Alex 07:14
Yeah. Geoff with your with your Niners fan hat on if they do go running back. Who do you want?

Geoff 07:21
Well, so the best running back in the in the draft i think is Najee Harris, but that’s not who I think is the best fit. I think it’s Travis Etiente. And then Travis etn is the the one cut hole, he hits the hole and just goes, Harris likes to dance a little bit too much. And randomize it dance a lot in this offense don’t don’t do quite as well. Travis etn is the is the one cut runner that could hit a home run. And you know, he gets that little bit of space and he can take it to the house and I think he’s the perfect fit for this offense.

Kevin 07:47
I completely agree with that quick trivia question for everybody listening. How many career 100 yard rushing games does again most have? I have a stat page pulled up in front of me and I still don’t know the answer.

Alex 08:01
It’s not a lot. I’m gonna get zeros. I’m gonna get zero because I dammit.

Geoff 08:07
Just one

Kevin 08:09
is one and part of that speaks to the offense. Right? We’ve, we all hit on that part of that speaks to the offense. And part of it is he was not used at all for the first three seasons of his career. But in 2019, had his lone 100 yard rushing game he’s had a lot of his big games have all been at 90 rushing yards where he falls into the end zone a couple times. And that’s kind of where you’ve seen that, but it is not a he’s not a volume driven running back. And that always scares me when you’re talking fantasy relevance is because it’s so unpredictable.

Derek 08:46
Where do you Where do you guys still ultimately see him finishing that on this year? Do you see him as a running back finish on the running back to do you see him as RB three? Like, where are you looking at him finishing and more. So where are you finding the value for him in the draft,

Geoff 09:00
he’s definitely a low end flex for me. I mean, I don’t want to miss my RB two for sure. I don’t wanna miss my RB three. He’s either low inflex. He’s a guy that you’re in the midst of by week hell, maybe you got an injury to one of your other starters and you need somebody he’s a home run hitter, he can literally pay off his value in one run. I mean, we saw it last year a few times where he got one run when 70 yards for a touchdown. That’s it, it’s all you need from him give me a seven yard touchdown run. And that’s all I need from you. And he’s that kind of guy that can give you that one big play but no one that I want to put a light on each and every week.

Alex 09:32
I think he finishes the high end RB three. And, and as far as draft value, if you’re looking at a high end RB three, maybe high to middle RB three. I don’t know that he cracks into the top, you know 25 Top 24 if you will, for RB two territory. So for me at that point for an RB three That’s questionable, I’d say seventh round in that area that feels kind of comfortable to me. But again, like I said earlier, I’m not comfortable at all like with, with a San Francisco running back and hitting the draft button. So I definitely wouldn’t consider it before the seven. And even then it would still be kind of iffy. For me.

Kevin 10:24
Now, Alex, I’ll echo that I think you’re seeing him go with the back end of the fifth to the mid six is kind of that range where you’re seeing him go. I think, for me, that’s a little too early, I would like to venture out into some other areas. Even if I have to pump positions right? Now, I’m not going to be tied into any one position in the sixth round. So if I need to punt and try and find some value at wide receiver, I will, I would start I’d start looking at him probably, I don’t even know if I’d look I’m in the seventh Alex just because of being so inconsistent. If he’s a by week guy, a guy that you’re, you know, thrown a lot because of in whatever, like, man, I might glance at you in the eighth round. But that doesn’t even mean I’m gonna like put you anywhere in my queue yet, like so that’s the problem that I’m coming up with him is it’s not against him. But because of how that system works is he’s almost on draftable it on my board, because I just refuse to pay up that high to do it. And there is no scenario where I’m gonna be drafting with a group of guys, whether it’s 11 others or 13 others or 15 others where he falls to, you know, the ninth or 10th round where I would perceive that to be value. That’s just not happening.

Derek 11:46
No, I think you’re spot on there. I mean, you look at last year, he was the 56th pick off the board, which put him back in the fourth early fist type of type of territory and was drafted as this 24th running back off the board as well. So with him not delivering on that he will slip but I don’t think he’s going to slip near to the point where I’m going to draft him either. I’m probably about where you’re talking Kevin. The seventh I might start looking just depending upon how the draft is gone. But realistically, I’m probably not going to pull the trigger until an eighth or ninth round type of deal on that. And that’s only if I’m putting them on my my roster as a fourth or fifth running back on there. Let’s go ahead and move on over to uh, Jeff Wilson, Jeff Wilson finished at running back 30 last year 126 rushes 600 yards, seven rushing touchdowns, 13 receptions, 28 targets for 133 and three guys your thoughts on Jeff Wilson Jr.

Jeff Wilson Jr. RB San Francisco 49ers

Kevin 12:43
For me, this is the niners running back that I’m keeping my eye on the most and it’s not necessarily because of timeshare, or perceived output. It’s because of the value. Jeff Wilson is a guy that you can get way late in the draft for a perceivable output of mid to bottom and RB three type upside depending on what goes on. He’s probably flying into more that Flex Zone even outside of the RB three territory but you’re getting him at a 1112 round in some cases discount to working moster and your production levels not too far off. So much to how Geoff spoke about earlier, find the 49 pack that’s the cheap and try and target him. I’m not sold on Michael hasty being the answer in San Francisco even though he might get some run. But Jeff Wilson is a guy that I’m keying in on as a late round running back just to help bolster up the kind of the the bottom end of my lineup help rounded out to help shuffle the deck a little bit, maybe he’s a nice trade piece later on. If Mostert does go down all the different things that you can use them as, but it’s the value that you get for 12 you know, maybe even as low as 13/14 round pick and being able to get, you know, top tier or top, you know, rb for bottom end RB three type production. I perceive that as value so that’s where I’m jumping in.

Geoff 14:19
Yeah, I’m with you. 100% on on Jeff Wilson and being the cheap guy that you want to target because he does have the upside. Like I mentioned, he’s a better pass right? route runner than then Ray mustard is he’s the guy they put in there when they need to catch up and you know, they do that. And he’s also their goal line guy. I mean, I think in 2019 he had 27 rushes but he had four touchdowns he had I mean like he had minimal rushes but he still had four touchdowns. Even last year. 126 rushes he still had seven touchdowns. He’s the guy in the red zone that you that you you get you know they get in there whenever they need them because Ramos is not a big guy. You know Jeff Wilson just finds a way to get into the endzone. He has a nose for the endzone and he has that upside. You know If most or does go down and Wilson’s getting the volume, I think he might be the better better overall running back with the receiving ability, the touchdown you know redzone ability, you know, most big play guy but I think Jeff Wilson has an overall NFL running back is is better overall.

Alex 15:16
Here’s the other thing that I think you need to take into account when evaluating Jeff Wilson and that is he is on a one year basically prove that Neil. And there is nothing like the motivation of approve that deal for these guys, especially running backs in this league that that will bring out some extra extra motivation each and every Sunday to make sure that he gets paid come next year after this contract is done. So yeah, I think if you are going to to target a running back and again, yeah. For me in the San Francisco running backs, it’s it is, you know, I can’t do it. But if you are going to target one of them that Jeff Wilson, I think is the guy that you’re going to want to keep your eye on. And to Kevin and Jeff’s point, you’re going to get him late, he’s gonna still be there when you finally decide to pull the trigger on that one.

Geoff 16:11
Yeah. And to go on to that, that prove it deal thing. They actually I think they signed him to that pruvit deal this year because he was a restricted free agent. So that alone says that they you know, they let MacKinnon walk they let Tevin Coleman walk they didn’t even try to sign those guys. They did go out and sign Jeff Wilson. So there is a good chance that he gets some, you know, piece that offense. You know, even if Ramos replays the entire season. I think he’s still part of their plans.

Derek 16:37
Yeah, no, I agree with that. And you look at last year, he definitely had some pop right like four different games where he was finished as a running back one on the week. To Kevin’s point where we talked about are he most or only having one career game of over 100 rushing yards. Jeff Wilson did that twice last year in 2020. So I think that he is going to have some really good play this next year, I think you’re going to be able to get some value on it. Again, though it does slightly worried me from the standpoint that the 40 Niners are going to just ride the hot hand with Shanahan system. But he’s a guy that you can get late enough in the draft that that probably won’t matter because you’re going to be able to get him as a running back five or running back six for your roster. If you’re playing in a super deep league. There’s a good chance that he’s going to be sitting on the board incredibly late in those drafts

Kevin 17:28
Geoff I’m gonna pick your dynasty brain here for a second. I was offered Jeff or I was offered a mid second round pick and the 2020 rookie or 2021 rookie draft for Jeff Wilson the other day. How fast do you smash yes or do you counter with something better?

Geoff 17:46
So you you have a second round pick or you have guestbook Jeff

Kevin 17:49
Wilson I have I was offered a second round pick form

Geoff 17:54
I smash accepts Okay, I think yeah, I think if you have Jeff Wilson go ahead and take a second round pick I think the the upside in the values definitely there if you’re good at drafting rookies, and you scout them Well, I think second round pick you can get some some tremendous value and Jeff Wilson is good as he could be in this offense he’s never going to reach his full potential so I think yeah, I think you smash except on that one and you take the second round pick.

Derek 18:21
I like it. Oh guys any desire to talk about JaMycall Hasty.

Alex 18:27
I think from from a dynasty standpoint, he has some value in that he is young I mean, he was rookie last year and still working his way in but for you know, a redraft league there’s all go back to the same point that I keep making as I’m a broken record talking about the niners running backs. No, but for for for dynasty purposes. He’s got some value in that you can sweeten the pot in a deal. You know, if you’re trying to make a deal, you’ve got a JaMycall Hasty, you might be able to sweeten the pot and in whatever trade you’re trying to make there because the allure of a second year running back is so great, especially on a team that likes to run the football but i don’t i don’t know that he actually gets much much run barring an injury like we saw last year with with moster orb Wilson. Wilson was hurt for a little bit there too, wasn’t he? Yeah,

19:26
I think

Alex 19:27
yeah. So barring an injury, you know, he doesn’t have much in the way of it, but I do think there is some dynasty value to him and that he can be a pot sweetener for a deal. Or a guy that you stash away and maybe wait and see how things play out throughout the course of a season. But for a week in week out guy, no. Yeah, I

Geoff 19:50
agree. I think dynasties is the only place he has value and he’s the other three running backs. He’s only one that Shanahan actually drafted. So you have that we know the Shanahan’s going back to his father. They Like to draft these random running backs and make them into superstar so maybe he wants to prove it with hasty and make him a superstar. This, you know, drafted him so late and you know, I think actually he may have gone on drafted now that I think about it. So you know he’s good and dynasty redraft, I wouldn’t even consider him.

Deebo Samuel WR San Francisco 49ers

Derek 20:15
Let’s go ahead and move on over to the wide receiver room. And we’ll start off with Deebo Samuel who had a injury shortened here last year, finished 97th as far as the wide receivers are concerned, 33 receptions 44 targets, 391 yards, one touchdown, guys, your thoughts on Deebo Samuel

Geoff 20:34
Deebo is great when he’s healthy. And that’s what I’m going to say really, it’s going even back to his college day. So every year we have a friend of the podcast Come on. And he’s he’s a doctor and he goes over some of the injury histories of some of these guys. And one of the guys he kind of put a red flag on on Deebo Samuel, you know, coming into the league is he has some injuries, even going back into high school, he had some injuries. So if Deebo can find a way to just stay on the field, he is an excellent, excellent player. And I think that that stigma of the injury is going to make him a super value. If you want to risk it, you know, you’re going to get him really late. Why receiver four or five range. And I think the upside is definitely especially with some of the guys that left I mean, we lost a born I think is born I think led not last year, but the year before let us and in all our receiving categories, and he’s now with the Patriots. So he’s now gone. So that’s really Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are the two receivers gonna be the main guy, obviously, George Kittle. Still there as well. He’s the real receiver. But Samuel, if you say healthy, I think he’s an excellent late value pick because people just put that injury label on him.

Kevin 21:40
I really like the way that San Francisco intentionally finds ways to get Deebo the ball when he’s healthy. You know, between the jet sweeps and coming out of backfield, all the different motions stuff that Shanahan has shown with Deebo. And again, when healthy his ability to just be that big body in the middle and and come down with the ball. I like what he provides in that aspect. I think he does, he has I think he has top 30 potential, I don’t know that I’m quite ready to say he’s a top 24 wide receiver to guy but I do think he has top 30 potential based on his health. But again, for the value. As Geoff said, there’s a lot of value there. He’s a guy that you need to flag and at least keep an eye on him. See how your roster shake out. See if that makes sense. He still holds he still hold some of that name cloud, he’s a young guy. So in dynasty leagues, people are still looking to make moves forward thinking that he’s gonna bust out and do those different things. So Deebo has value, but you need to be patient, don’t jump the gun and take them in round five when you don’t need to take them in round five, sit and wait and wait and wait because I use going in front of him in dynasty and redraft format right now. And that’s okay, sit back and wait and get the value out of Deebo. Because I do see him being able to come down, you know, again, health health, you know, being there is summed up 775 to 80 catches, I can see him with, you know, somewhere in, you know, around 800 yards receiving seems to be about right, he’s not going to be the big deep play guy that’s more IUT. But he’s a chain mover he can get open and find the gaps in the zone. And at that point, you’re banking on some touchdowns and using them to help fill in for by weeks,

Alex 23:41
the niners will find ways to get the ball into his hands. And that is attractive when it comes to fantasy value because they’re looking to get him involved in the game. From from a pure receiving standpoint. I mean, he’s he he’s one of those names that and I apologize, Kevin, if he made this point, but he’s he’s a name that brings such big expectations with it. But then when you actually look crunched the numbers, it’s not backed up and you know, be that because of injuries that he’s only been in the league for two years, you know that that’s a name that you’ve come to in those expectations. Now that that that’s just from previous years, could be poised to have a great year this year. As long as Jimmy Garoppolo is throwing the football there and by throwing the football I mean turning around and handing it off to the bevy of running backs and not throwing the football. Again, I think the biggest issue down there in San Francisco for these for these receivers are talented, talented guys, that can do a lot of things, but they’re only as good as the guy throwing the football which point that I make over and over and over again. But you can’t rely on Jimmy g To be, you know, consistent enough and for the passing game to get going and be established, and to be featured there in San Francisco. So while I like Deebo Samuel, I don’t know, again, you know, there’s one guy on this Niners offense that I really, really would target. It’s not in the receiver room and it’s not the running back room. So

Derek 25:26
it’s okay.

Alex 25:26
Yeah, yeah, it’s also not in the quarterback room, I guess I should clarify that. But for Deebo it just it perhaps the light bulb goes on, perhaps he can stay healthy for the entire season. But it just it I I would stay away. And if I had shares of vivo in a dynasty, I would look to move it because I think there’s still that name recognition and people are still in this mindset of he could still right like there’s the he could still and if you can flip that for something good than that. And that’s great. Because I’m not sure that he could still

Derek 26:03
he’s a guy that’s gonna be a value in the in the draft right? Like he’s the guy that if you can get him in the right spot, could be a tremendous value play for your team and for your roster construction could do some made some very big, big things. Now, you look at like last year where he came off as a top, you know, 36 wide receiver he was drafted wide receiver 34 and that’s not at all where you’re going to take him there’s a lot of chances that you’re going to take him be able to draft him very similar to where you were able to draft Brandon AIU last year which was wide receiver 72 overall, if you can get Deebo Samuel down there in that range he will outperform that ADP by probably an easy 2030 slots and so with that type of deal that’s a guy that you’ll be able to put on as wide receiver four or five onto your roster and be able to put as a feeling type of guy for you know a bye week something like that that you will be able to get you some tremendous value

Geoff 27:00
yeah I think if you I don’t have ADP in front of me but I think if you’re looking at that range where you’re talking about getting Deebo Samuel if you look at the guys that are probably around him in the receiver rooms he has the most upside I bet of all those guys I think he has the potential to be a top you know wide receiver to where some of those guys in that same range are either you know at the end of their careers or older guys or they’re you know, they’re guys that we’re not so excited about Where’s Deebo has that upside at least Well guys,

Brandon Aiyuk WR San Francisco 49ers

Derek 27:27
Brandon Aiyuk had a bit of a breakout there in his rookie year finished as wide receiver 33, 60 receptions. 96 targets 748 yards, five touchdowns. Your thoughts on Brendan Eich Well, first

Geoff 27:42
I’m going to say that I was wrong. On draft day, I was very, very upset that we took Brandon iua because we won we had two first round picks we passed on CeeDee Lamb with our first pick. And then we pass on Justin Jefferson with our second pick and we took Brandon Aiyuk I was very upset but you know what he came out he played well. And you can really take what you said about Deebo and getting those manufactured touches and just copy paste it with Brandon Aiyuk he’s basically Deebo Samuel light. He did the same thing jet sweeps he got those little quick screen passes. He did a lot with him. And he’s kind of the same he’s not quite as the big bulky Deebo Samuel kind of guy but he’s definitely in that same sort of mold where you know it fits Jimmy G’s style because he is very conservative doesn’t throw the ball on the field so you know what throw it to you or pass a brand or you can let him do his thing. And it you know, he was he was awesome last year you know for our for our team without him we wouldn’t have won the four games that we did win so he definitely proved me wrong. I was very upset that we drafted them to begin with.

Kevin 28:41
Yeah, I think I think he quietly had a very solid rookie year right obviously the version a lot of other noise Jefferson had his amazingly great year see lamb showed to I guess he showed improvement consistently as the year went on. It’s kind of the big name guy. And then you had Jerry Judy who is making headlines because he just couldn’t catch the ball and everyone was just clowning on him all season long so I you can quietly very relevant fan season partly due to injury right the guys were injured around him he kind of got thrust into that starting lineup but he did well with it and the niners absolutely they craft plays to his strong suits. And it’s not just running a nine route. He is more talented than that, I think is he’s going to be the guy that you have to pay up for. Which is probably why I’m going to fade him a little bit is because he’s he’s the one that is going to cost the most amount of my investment to get him on my team. But if if you’re damned and determined to have you know, one of you know, one of the San Francisco wide receivers and you don’t feel like waiting on Deebo cuz you He’s not staying healthy. You know, take a stab at it you got Jimmy g we’ll find him more we’ll find him they will craft plays around it and they can’t go to Georgia or kill every single place so they got to spread around somewhere even those target shares probably only ended up 17% or so.

Alex 30:19
So a couple episodes we did that segment where who do who do we think is going to have the sophomore slump and you know, Brandon our username did not come up in that but I feel like we probably should have considered him for having a sophomore slump and again nothing it’s nothing against the player. everything to do with everything else going on around him I think with a healthy Deebo Samuel Are you doesn’t get featured as much I think with a healthy George Kittle or you doesn’t get featured as much and I think that that’s going to be kind of the trend as we move into 21 here is a healthy Deebo Samuel healthy George Kittle all of a sudden I you sees his production go down a little bit and and yeah, I mean, shoot we had on that who’s gonna have a sophomore slump? I think we all had Justin Jefferson, because those numbers are astronomical and unattainable. For a second season. They’re practically unattainable. I’ll be shocked if he gets to them again. But for Brandon, I use those numbers won’t be attainable because of a healthy Deebo Samuel, a healthy George Kittle. And Jimmy Garoppolo. who hates to throw the football more than five yards. So that to me is cause for pause on Brandon IU, I think in in dynasty, he does have the value again, young guy that could be a pot sweetener when it comes to redraft league. So yeah, Kevin with where he’s going, versus what you kind of expect to get from him. It that that doesn’t add up that weight doesn’t balance. And that to me is again, another way that I’m staying away from a San Francisco receiver. Because it just the way that this offense is constructed and with pieces that are coming back. I’m not I’m not sold on it.

Geoff 32:20
I was gonna say I think you know, you talk about the healthy Deebo Samuel healthy George Kittle. But I think even more important, a healthy defense. I mean, we saw what they did their Super Bowl run, Jimmy g handed the ball off 150 times, it seemed like I mean, they didn’t throw the ball at all, because defense kept them close, they handed the ball off. So I mean, if they’re if their defense is healthy, and they’re able to keep those games, you know, tight, it’ll be all running backs.

Derek 32:44
I hear what you guys are saying however, little thought exercise here. So if you’re talking about and even going back to 2019 on their Super Bowl run, right, the niners still threw the ball 500 times over the course of the season last year was actually a slight tick up because they were playing from behind a little bit yada, yada, yada, right? So they’re going to throw the ball probably at least 500 times this coming year. And we’re talking about, you know, I not, maybe not necessarily get into targets with Deebo coming back and with Kittle coming back, and drastically eating into the target share those types of things. But where I want to have this thought exercise is to throw the ball 500 times, how do you see this target share breaking down? Where does Brandon ioq fit into the second target third target and where do you see those kind of overall targets going? As far as how many he’s gonna get?

Geoff 33:33
I think it’s George Kittle. And then Deebo and Aiyuk like neck and neck.

Alex 33:38
I mean, they’re like gonna be right there with the same amount of targets, neither one of them’s gonna have more than the other it’ll be right in that same range. I would put it to you that I think it’s George Kittle Deebo running backs Brandon IU and that to me is is the issue is that the running backs will get used so much in the passing game, that I you won’t see the football coming his way because of that. So that That to me is where kind of the breakdown goes is Kittle obviously number one Deebo number two running backs their collective event. Brandon, I you

Derek 34:12
I was just saying I get what you’re saying. But if you look at last year, right, the wide receivers commanded 50% of all the targets their running backs commanded about 25% and tight ends commanded about 25% I don’t know that you’re gonna see much difference of a ratio there.

Alex 34:27
Yeah, yes, because they didn’t have George Kittle for all of last year. So throw the throw last year’s numbers out there if you can’t, you can’t use last year’s numbers.

Derek 34:36
Okay, just this is this is the point I’m trying to make though. If he’s if they’re gonna throw the ball 500 times. And George Kittle sees 25% of the target share. I don’t think that that’s anything that you know, that’s outrageous, right? Like you’re talking 125 plus targets go into George Kittle which I think is going to be in the range right you’re here you can pencil him in for what 125 to 150 targets over the course of the season. Yep. Okay, you’re still does those wide receivers are still probably going to see somewhere in the same similar neighborhood of, you know, probably 250 targets total going to them.

Geoff 35:11
And if you’re thinking it’ll be, I think it’ll be evenly distributed. I think they both limit each other’s upside. I think they’re both going to be sort of, I don’t know when that sort of middle tier, you know, behind George Kittle just fighting for those for those those targets, but they’re neither one of them is going to be unless one of them gets hurt. If they’re both healthy all season long. They’re both going to be kind of in that same range.

Kevin 35:31
I concur. Kittles is going to be 23% of target share, Deebo and I you are going to be somewhere in that 16 17% range each. And then you’re going to have it balanced out with a cast of characters, whether it’s Jeff Wilson, whether moster sees a little bit of passing work whether they’re trying to get Michael hasty into the game a bit more and using him on top of the fact of you know, they run more than just two receivers. So there’s there’s a little bit more depth there, you’re gonna see some, you know, all sorts of different things. Going back to Geoff’s question about ADP and kind of what’s going around him earlier, and I just pulled this while we were shooting the breeze and you absolutely nailed it. So ATP for redraft league sprinting is going at the very back end of the seventh round. So 711 is his current ADP. around him. You have Jarvis Landry, Devin Singletary, Chase Edmonds, Wayne Gallman. Jamison Crowder, and then you go down a little bit further and you see Robbie Anderson T. Higgins, which I think those guys are a little bit too low. But that’s you know, we’re not talking about them. So as far as upside goes, I think you nailed it, Geoff, like the guys that are going around him I at least has the upside that you’re drafting there. And if you’re trying to get some a roster that has some splash to it, where you can get some Blitz some big playability he’s going to be the guy that clearly represents that in that kind of grouping of players that are going to be around the back end of the seventh you know, mid seventh or mid eighth grade 100%

Derek 37:05
Very cool. Let’s go ahead and move on over into the tight end room. Let’s you guys have any other wide receivers on this team. You want to chat up

Alex 37:15
Is there somebody we need to keep our eyes on that? That’s waiting in the wings there?

Geoff 37:19
Honestly, I’d look at the depth chart I don’t even know who’s behind these two guys anymore. I think we have jajuan Jennings i think is the guy we drafted last year and of course we got Jalen Hurd coming back from injury I don’t know what he’s gonna be like he looked like he had some promise but he can’t stay healthy i mean he’s like the epitome of can’t stay healthy he’s had to back to back he’s an injury so who knows what he’s gonna be so I but besides those two guys, I don’t even know who else we have on our roster right now.

37:45
So you’re saying the niners should go receiver early?

Geoff 37:49
Yeah, they should but they won’t they’ll go D line because that’s what Lynch has done every single year that he’s drafted. He’s gotten D line in the first round every single year.

Alex 37:57
Put some respect on that Hall of Famers name Yeah.

George Kittle TE San Francisco 49ers

Derek 38:00
Let’s go ahead and move on over to the tight ends and George Kittle also in a injury shortened year still finished tight in 1948 receptions 63 targets 634 yards and two touchdowns. Your thoughts on George Kittle

Geoff 38:14
I mean, what about Georgia total? I mean he’s to me he’s the number one dynasty Titan I mean, now Kelsey, redraft is probably the number one redraft Titan. But if you’re looking at dynasty, I think it’s kiddle. He’s younger. You know, he has a longer career ahead of them. He’s done what he’s done with with Jimmy crapola. So if they get any kind of upgrade at quarterback, you know, what’s he going to be like? I mean, think he had Nick mons was was his best year he had Nick mount as his quarterback. So, you know, the tight end room as we’re calling it, it’s just one guy. I mean, it’s just George Kittle. And then just know that nobody else we need to worry about so yeah, George Kittle. You know, he’s gonna go in the top three rounds in most, you know, I won’t own any of my league selling draft. I didn’t that early, but he’s gonna go super early. Because, you know, he’s he’s George Kittle. And he’s basically a receiver playing tight end.

Alex 39:01
But do we need to re retrain how we look at him, right? Like we need to, we need to kind of refocus how we look at Travis Kelsey. Right? he is he is a wide receiver. Right? Do we need to retrain how we look at George Kittle he’s not just he’s not a tight end. He is a receiver and he in tight end premium leagues, he is the, you know, the best to have along with with Kelsey. So are you drafting a tight end? Or are you drafting a receiver who’s wearing a you know, a tight end tag on him? That That to me is where you know, we need to be maybe looking at things a little bit differently. I agree. I did. George Kittle is for all intensive purposes. There’s tight end one tight end one a when he’s healthy, and then the rest of them and that’s not always the case that for how we’ve you know, we’ve talked on this show about our tight end tears because there is such a discrepancy between the top of the top and then kind of that middle pack. And then the rest of them, you know that that’s kind of how we how we’ve evaluated on this show. And Kittle to me is up there, you know, injury or not, I still think he’s worth the flyer, because he is a receiver, he’s not a tight end, he’s a receiver that is classified as a tight end.

Geoff 40:21
I agree 100%. With that, I think the only issue that I have with his tight end as a receiver is the fact that he’s still labeled a tight end. And if he gets hurt, good luck replacing it with anybody that’s going to be anywhere close to that value, you’re going to have to find some, you know, bum Off the Wire, because you’re not going to get you know, another good title in there. So replacing nafees healthy all year and you have that production. At tight end, it’s a humungous advantage. But when you don’t have it, it’s such a disadvantage, because now you’re left with some guy that just hope catches a touchdown every once in a while.

Alex 40:53
I’d also say but that’s that’s the case with everybody else who doesn’t get qlc or kiddle. You’re the guy who you hope hope yo there into the end zone, everyone. Yeah,

Kevin 41:03
I like kettle kettle, when we did our 2020 preseason rankings. I believe I kill number one over calcium guys, correct me if I’m wrong there, but I was super high on him coming into 2020. Because of all those things, he he lines up outside, like they put him in the slot at times, like again, they are very good. Kyle Shanahan is very good about putting guys in positions to be successful. And when you have some limitations at the quarterback position, and your team is relatively based off of defense is one, two and three on the priority list. You have to be able to scheme and Kyle Shanahan can do that, which is why these guys are still fantasy relevant, because quite frankly, I don’t know of another coach that could get as much out of Deebo Brandon, or George Kittle, then then koushin and getting out of them. So he’s still taught to, he’s gonna go in that second or third round, it’s just a matter of, are you choosing to, to invest that capital into a tight end or not? And that’s kind of dealer’s choice, right? I can, for the longest time I argued against it. And I’ve kind of been working on retraining myself to at least formulate a good argument for heading into the season to, you know, provide some insight of, you know, what are the benefits of taking Titan that early because if you’re going to it’s one of those two guys, you’re not doing it for Darren Waller or, you know, anybody else after what Mark Andrews or anybody else, like you’re doing it for Kelsey and for kettle. And then after that, you’re just waiting until the 10th 11th 12th round and picking up whichever guy you have to fill your roster out with. So I like it a lot. I like his attitude. I like his swagger. like these. He’s fun to watch, he enjoys playing the game. Like he’s not. He’s not all serious all the time. Like you can see him smile and having fun. And I appreciate that. And I will, I will say kettle number one tight end for 2021 I will I will stake my claim now.

Geoff 43:13
All right, good stuff. I think too. You know, going back to the kiddo being a likable person, just I wanted to say this real quick. But we did a poll, sort of a March Madness sort of bracket where if you could have one NFL player in your fantasy football league, who would it be? And George Kittle was the winner of that because everyone wanted George Kittle because he’s just I mean he’s I think he’s made comments to the press a few times about you know, scoring a touchdown first fantasy football you know owners and stuff like that where he actually knows the community and it’s just pretty cool to see that

Jimmy Garoppolo QB San Francisco 49ers

Derek 43:43
alrighty guys, let’s go ahead and move on over into the quarterback room and you got Jimmy g also an injury shortened season finishing as the quarterback 39 last year what are your thoughts on Jimmy g

Alex 43:57
pass which is something he doesn’t do often

Kevin 44:00
part of it’s the system it’s not again part of it’s not the guy like there was a lot of fanfare what he won his first nine is that is that right? So when he came over from New England he won his first nine Yeah, um, there’s some he wasn’t utilized as much but others he did in pretty convincing style by by being able to move within the pocket not necessarily run like a Lamar Jackson or even like Joe Burrow did before he got hurt, but he was able to Brady esque manipulate the pocket, find some time fun, you know, dump off to the right receiver, so I’m not huge on him and fantasy again, because of the system. I expect the niners to get healthy and be leading most of these games. And if they are, we all know what will take over that game and that’s going to be they’re gonna play airtight defense and they’re going to run the ball down your stinking throat which is great for NFL success. It sucks for fantasy football. So because of that, Jimmy Garoppolo is You know he’s on the lower the lower end of my QB two rankings just because of the utilization that you’re going to get out of the guy you’re not going to see 30 touchdowns out of Jimmy Garoppolo like you’re hoping for you know 23 to 26 touchdowns and that quite frankly would be a fluke and probably means the niners aren’t winning as many games as they should be if he’s thrown for that many so it’s based off the system nice enough guy super likable but fantasy output wise he’s a guy that I’m fading Yeah, I’m

Geoff 45:33
failing him as well. I think I’ve been saying it all offseason and I’m still gonna continue to say it and just kind of will it to happen but I don’t think he’s gonna be our starter week one. I think they’re gonna make some kind of move. I think there’s been rumors have been trading him to the Patriots. He’s only owed i mean he’s owed a huge contract $28 million I believe this year, but only three mil dead cap so if if they can find anything I mean, there was Deshaun Watson rooms for a while we tried to get Matt Stafford that didn’t happen because the Rams just stepped in and blew out the water with some crazy deal that was just didn’t make any sense. But we did try to get him so we are trying to upgrade the core position. We even call it about Teddy Bridgewater of all things when I just think he’s just Jimmy g light. But, you know, I’ve been hoping to get Donald I you know, we have the connection there with Salah You know, he used to be a defensive coordinator. Now he’s the head coach of the Jets. If he drafts Justin Fields, or Zach Wilson, maybe he trades start with Donald. And then we just cut Jimmy g because like I said there’s only three mil dead cap, he’s $28 million against the cap. So I’m still holding out hope that he’s not our quarterback, but if he is our quarterback in fantasy, I want nothing to do with him. And it goes more. It’s more than just the fact that he doesn’t throw the ball enough we run the ball, we play good defense. It’s also the fact that he has one season that he’s been healthy the entire season. And that’s it. I mean, he but the Patriots, he played like six games and he still got hurt. So he got hurt when it came to us that you know the first year he got hurt for the entire season. He got hurt last year, the one season that he was healthy all year long with the Super Bowl, but that’s it other than that he’s always been hurt. So I want nothing to do with them in fantasy football.

Alex 47:10
So here’s a question to the group. Jimmy G. Does he finish in the top 24 for quarterbacks that puts him at QB two range? Does he finish top 24 for quarterbacks in 2021?

Geoff 47:24
assuming he’s healthy, all 16 games and he’s playing for the 40 Niners? I think yes, because I do think that our offense will be good enough that he will have enough stats to put him in the top 24 i think i think Derek Carr as much as we give crapped their car I think he finishes in the top 20 for pretty much every year so he can be Derek Carr, at least

Kevin 47:43
I wrestled with. The Niners are what we expect them to be he’ll he’ll, it’ll be right there like 2223 24 like, I don’t think he’s gonna blow the doors off of it, but he can do

Alex 47:55
I wrestle with it. And I don’t I don’t know that I see him. I think I’d see him on that 23 to 25 maybe even 26 range, you know, like that, that to me. And if you’re having that discussion about a quarterback, then you know, look elsewhere. Well, yeah, that’s, that’s a day if you’re having that discussion about a quarterback. Will he be QB? low end QB to territory? Yeah, then you don’t you don’t need to worry about picking him up.

Geoff 48:28
superflex qB three, I think is the best. I’m doing what Jimmy G.

Derek 48:32
Yeah, I can definitely get behind that range for it. actually kind of where do you see the line on on Jimmy G. Right. Like, put it right there. As far as the quarterback above below. Who do you see him kind of riding around

Kevin 48:46
their car and Drew Lock? Okay.

Alex 48:48
Yeah, I’d say drew lock is in that area. I’d also say that we were just looking at it too. Yeah, Donald’s kind of in that that area? Yeah, I

Geoff 49:01
think I’m with you. I think drew Locke is probably I’m pulling up the last year’s thing just to kind of see, you know, Daniel Jones ish, maybe a little bit lower than Neal Jones because he’s got some rushing upside. Yeah, I mean, he’s at Dalton, you know, because he’s now the starter in Chicago. Maybe he’s any Dalton. Yeah, that’s those are the where I kind of put him in that range.

Derek 49:25
So y’all brought up drew Locke a lot going through their fantasy wise you got to take one of the two of them who are you taking drew locker Jimmy g

Geoff 49:33
drew lock drew lock for me. He still has some upside there. I think you mean G is what he is. He’s never gonna be anything else. I think drew lock at least has that inkling that maybe what we saw at the end of last year is the real drew lock. I mean, he had a few games at the end of the year last year that he was you know, a QB one. You know, can you be that guy’s got some weapons he’s got Judy, there’s that coincide and coming back. that he’d be

Alex 49:58
the one I take over Jimmy g as well. much as it pains me to say that I would take drew lock over Jimmy Garoppolo I would definitely take drew lock over Jimmy Garoppolo. And that should speak volumes to how I feel about Jimmy Garoppolo because I wouldn’t touch drew lock with 1000 foot pole. Maybe I mean maybe with Courtland Sutton and we had this discussion before we started recording courtland Sutton cures a lot of ills. And I think it was very obvious that drew lock was missing that last year but yeah, I would drew lock over Jimmy Garoppolo now I’m not sure if you throw another name out there. It would be so so apt to go against Jimmy G. I did

Geoff 50:44
a thing real quick. I sorted by points per game just to see where Jimmy g fell last year in between. So he fell in between Dwayne Haskins and Joe Flacco

Alex 50:58
unemployed and just signed as a backup in Philadelphia. Yep.

Derek 51:01
Guys, any other thoughts that we’ve got on the 40? Niners?

Kevin 51:05
Good team, right? We expect them to be if they’re not winning that division, they’re going to be fighting for that division title. There’s just not a great fantasy team to to build around but collectively, a great group of players great defense and very solid skill position players it’s just doesn’t quite equate to fantasy football success. We can week out outside of George Kittle.

Alex 51:32
Yeah, it’s almost like they’re building it to win actual football games versus winning us fantasy football games on on every weekend. So how dare they that that’s really, really rude of them. They’re in San Francisco in the Bay Area to do such a thing to fantasy football fans. But yeah, I agree with you. It’s a it’s a good team. There’s a lot of great pieces. But for fantasy wise, there’s one dude and one dude, only that I’d like to have from that team. And if he’s not named George kill, staying away from San Francisco 40 Niners for fantasy.

Geoff 52:09
Yeah, I’m in the same boat. I think I may own some Deebo just because of that, you know, you’re gonna get him super cheap. I may own some Jeff Wilson Jr. But I’m not targeting those guys. I’m just taking them like okay, we’re at the point in the draft now where it’s basically throwing darts. And if I’m throwing darts at somebody, I threw a dart at Deebo Samuel Rother with darda Jeff Wilson Jr. But don’t the guy I really want to target necessarily would be George Kittle. Well, guys,

Derek 52:31
any final thoughts for the listeners?

Kevin 52:35
Have fun? This is the fun time right? Do your homework, pay attention to free agency, you know, formulate, formulate your own opinion. If you think we’re batshit crazy. Tell us like we’re up for debate. It’s all good. But stay tuned. Lots of lots of moving pieces, lots of you know, even just quarterback carousel stuff that is still going on here in the league. And we are about a month away from the NFL Draft. So that’s super exciting. So get your popcorn ready. We’re gonna have a fun offseason.

Alex 53:09
Kevin, I’m glad that you brought up the we’re about a month away from the draft because we are starting to see pro day numbers come in. And if you are in dynasty leagues and you are paying attention to what you can get in the first couple rounds, the only couple rounds that you’ll have in a rookie draft. This is where the work is done. We’ve said this before, but this is where the work is done so that you can you know potentially pick off a James Robinson that nobody has ever heard about before and you get him on your team and you don’t have to play the waiver wire after week one and hope that you land you know that guy so you pay attention now to what these pro days are going on. I highly recommend if you don’t follow him on Twitter. Get at Jim naggy who does the senior bowl, the Reese’s senior bowl he is tweeting out all of these dudes numbers from their bro days that that did senior bowl stuff and those are guys that are going to be going he will inundate you with some lineman stuff that won’t matter for your fantasy but you will get some some good looks at some of these skill guys that are coming out in any little edge you can give yourself heading into a dynasty draft a fantasy draft your go able to pay off majorly? come next January. Yeah,

Geoff 54:25
I’ll echo that sentiment and first I just want to thank you all for having me on the show tonight. It’s been a lot of fun. It’s I got straight off of work and came here into the show. So what a way to end the show is kind of my nightcap so I appreciate you having me on. And just talking about the NFL draft and rookie draft I just had one piece of advice to everybody out there. Don’t worry so much about the landing spots. If the player is talented, they eventually will pan out I mean people that passed up on AJ Brown cuz he went to Tennessee. Well, you missed out on AJ Brown. People that pass up on DeAndre swift you know who’s now going to be a great running back. We hope this year You know, people say oh, he’s going to destroy play behind carry on Johnson, yada, yada, yada. Now he’s going to be potentially an RB one. So don’t worry about landing spot too much the players will eventually get their shot because you have to spending a good draft capital on these guys. So that’s my advice for the rookie draft, get the gravest, the most talented guy, the talent will eventually show through.

Derek 55:22
That’s some really sage advice. Thank you. And Geoff, thanks for taking the time. I know it’s late there where you are. We very much appreciate you taking the time out tonight and coming on. Your your knowledge was very insightful, and we appreciate that. If you can hit up with your socials one more time with where the listeners can connect with you.

Geoff 55:39
Sure, yeah. I’m on Twitter at Geoff Lambert 77. It’s Geoff spelled G E O F F, and then all my links to all my you know, podcasts and website. All that stuff’s in my profile, but yeah, Geoff Lambert 77 on Twitter,

Derek 55:52
and Geoff and team have some great stuff coming out. They’re very well worth a follow make sure that you’re doing it. But guys, I do think that that’s going to wrap up yet another episode of the good old boys fantasy football podcast. Make sure you’re following us on our socials. We’re at Twitter, Instagram, Facebook at good old boys. FF. You can also find us on our website. goodoldboysff.com for Kevin and Alex. I’m Derek. Have a good one. Be safe.