Minnesota Vikings 2021 Fantasy Football

Minnesota Vikings 2021 Fantasy Football Analysis, NFL News, and Player Comparison

Intro 00:14
You’re listening to the Good Old Boys Fantasy Football podcast. Now here’s your hosts, Kevin, Derek and Alex

Derek 00:24
Alrighty, welcome in ladies and gentlemen to another episode of the Good Old Boys Fantasy Football Podcast. I am Derek and I am joined as always by your co host, Kevin Alex, unfortunately, not going to be able to join us tonight. But Kevin, how are we doing?

Kevin 00:36
Doing good man good little kind of chilly here in Colorado. But it’s springtime. So we could have 80 degrees one day and 20 degrees the next so we’re getting through it but overall, good a little bit of NFL news this week, which is always exciting. finished up another draft on on our favorite sleeper up here at the moment. So that’s always a great thing when you can wrap one up and start looking towards the next one. So I’m good man. How are you?

Derek 01:02
Yeah, that’s one we got it out the way early. Yeah, I can’t complain. having lots of fun here. always a joy to sit down and talk fantasy football with you. And we’re doing doing this thing live again. So that’s always a lot of fun. Welcome in everybody out there watching and listening. enjoy having you here. You guys feel more than welcome to throw any comments in there. Let us know how we’re doing. I love the engagement. So but we’ve got a great episode tonight. We’re going to go through we’re going to talk about some news. Some news happening out there we’ve got a little bit of old you rather type of thing. We’re going to talk some of the move up. Same from running back three territory last year and what we expect to see happen this year on some of that. And then we’ve got our team of the week to break down and that’s going to be the Vikings this year. So let’s go ahead and hop right into NFL news. The Broncos and the Seahawks. Both of those organizations players stating that they won’t participate in voluntary offseason workouts.

NFL News

Kevin 02:10
Y’all I think we lost Derek here for a second. So I’m going to take over the news notes. I’m gonna give Derek a chance to try and fix his internet connection here just real quick, the winds blowing so I’m sure it’s playing havoc on some internet but we’re gonna touch it off here. Broncos and Seahawks players decided they won’t participate in voluntary offseason workouts. The Broncos specifically cited COVID reasons. They don’t feel like the I guess Broncos headquarters is set up well enough to protect against it since people within the facility have contracted COVID. as of recently, Julian element had his contract terminated by the New England Patriots. And then Edelman turned around and announced his retirement. Giovanni Bernard long time Cincinnati Bengals has signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. James Conner has kind of gone from coast to coast has gone from Pittsburgh, over to the Arizona Cardinals which is a very interesting one, in my opinion to help fill the gap of what Kenyan Drake is leaving in that backfield. And then Thaddeus Moss, Randy Moss’s son, who was the standout wide receiver slash tight end at the University of Louisiana State was released by the Washington football team and then turned around and claimed by the Bengals so he’s getting reunited with Joe Burrow. I guess, Derek as we’re kind of hitting through these, you know what, what stood out to you? What do you like and what do you not like about that?

Derek 03:43
You there’s, there’s lots of things to like, and it seemed like the Julian Edelman contract deal appreciate you running through that. I think we’ve got the internet sorted out here. So that’s good. But the Julian Edelman thing it seemed like it was a move in which it actually benefited him by them terminating his contract first, instead of just cutting him and or having him retire. So with them marking the failed physical thing. I do believe that that actually sets him up for some benefits that he would otherwise not be entitled to. He just retired. So you know, a little bit of a player look out there. Gio Bernard to the Bucs is an interesting one, because you look at you know, last couple of weeks leading up to this, this news. geo geo is with the Bengals did some good work there in the absence of Joe Mixon. But you had Bruce Arians coming out saying some very positive things about Keyshawn Vaughn potentially having a breakout type of season and quite frankly, I don’t know how those two coexist in the same backfield with either of them having fantasy relevance in there in the same role. So James Connor to the cartels. I like this move. We’ve been over it before where I don’t know the chase. Edmunds has the ability to be the guy and carry a Primary workload designation in the NFL, but him going to the Cardinals there It allows for them to kind of go back and forth and you’ll see probably a little bit of a time split. I don’t know that I really want either one of those backs for fantasy. And then like in the fact that Thaddeus Moss reuniting with Joe Burrow, and I think that does some big things there.

Kevin 05:18
Cincinnati Bengals haven’t really had a tight end here in the last probably five or six years and I know Tyler Eifert was there. More recently than that, but his injuries between I think the the neck, the back, the the groin issue one year, like you just kind of injuries caught up to him the last two or three seasons in Cincinnati before he went down to Jacksonville. So I liked the Thaddeus Moss deal. He was, you know, undrafted, free agent by Washington last year, and then was placed on IR never was able to really crack that active roster and getting the game time. But I know, coming out, a lot of people expected him to be drafted but because of some injuries and not being able to work out at the combine, or is prote Well, I guess they’re wanting to combine last year, but he wasn’t able to work out for teams. He went undrafted, Washington didn’t suit him up. So they decided to move on. But reuniting with Joe Burrow is a good thing, right? The more chemistry and the more comfortable you can make your star quarterback, the more chances for success there are so I like this I like the fact that he’ll be able to get in there and probably compete first for at least an active role on the roster. I’m not gonna say a starting position just yet but an active role in the roster like drew simple showed flashes at times but he’s not, you know, an upper echelon tight end in the NFL, so I don’t think the competition there is as steep as with other teams so good for Thaddeus Moss. I I also like the James Connor to Arizona move. I think that it’s going to be a nice change of scenery for him. I think that there’s a open pathway to usage and some sort of market share in that backfield. So I do like that. I think James Conner and Chase Edmonds are sitting probably right there at that running back three level by the time the season’s ending, James Conner, it’s hard to expect him to play more than 12 or 13 games a season right now until he shows us otherwise. And chase admins as I’ve said before, he’s not a workhorse back. He’s not built for it. He doesn’t have the skill set for it. And he’s not special. Like he’s he has a very nice skillset for what he does, but he is not a elite stand out, you know, rb one, like he is not someone that any other team would go Yeah, we want a guy like him. And everybody has a guy kind of like chase admin, so I’m not blown away. Although I do think he gets used more this year. Derek’s haven’t held with his internet again, poor guy needs to needs to call this subscriber and tell him to stick it up the tailpipe because a poor guy can’t seem to keep a connection here. So I’m gonna wait for Derek to get back as we kind of get into this would you rather. But I’m going to kind of jump ahead here a little bit. And as we alluded to earlier, there’s this this group of running back threes from last year. And as we kind of evaluate all of them, and where we think they’re going to end up for the 2021 season, and kind of a move up, move down stay the same type thing. So first of all the list. Running back threes last year consisted of Todd Gurley, James Conner, Myles Gaskin, Chase Edmonds, Austin Eckeler, Jeff Wilson, Giovanni Bernard, Wayne Gallman, Latavius, Murray, Devin Singletary, Gus Edwards and Darryl Henderson. Now, looking through this list of RB threes, I think there’s a couple standouts that you can clearly feel comfortable moving, whether it’s up or down. The first is Austin Eckeler. Austin Eckeler was injured for a little bit kind of got off to a slow start once he got back into the mix and then finished pretty strong. So I think Austin Eckeler is a guy that definitely isn’t going to finish as an RB three he’s being drafted as a as a early RB two in in most formats here at the moment. So I think Austin Eckeler clearly moves up. And then there’s a list of guys who I do think jump down off this list. Gio down, Wayne Gallman down. Devin Singletary. I have dropping down and it’s for a couple reasons a, they’re gonna continue to ride Zack Moss in Buffalo as he gets a little bit more comfortable. But Zack Moss didn’t show enough to earn that starting spot by himself. So I’m not going to be surprised if the Buffalo Bills are Jump into the draft and grab another running back to pair up with Singletary Moss and players see whoever that is to compete for touches. I think Conner and Edmonds like I said earlier I do think they’ll both those guys are gonna stay in RB three territory. Myles Gaskin is a wildcard if he stays in Miami kind is that, you know the lead dog out of out of that pack of running backs that they established last year. I think he can slide up to the back to the middle RB to territory. But if Miami drafts one of these top and running backs, like some people are predicting they do whether it’s the bottom of the first round or in the second round, that I think miles Gaskin probably ends up dropping out of RB three as they ride the new hot hand.

Derek 10:43
Alright, I think I’m back. I think I’m back better than ever hopefully, see if we can’t figure this thing out here. But no, I would agree with you. And we’ll go ahead and move right into that. Thank you for jumping into that one. So kind of the move up, move down stay the same. I do think that both James Conner and Chase Edmonds eat into one another to the point where they’re upside is capped kind of at running back three, I think the easy pickins is Austin eckler moves up into running back one or two territory, I could see him finishing either one of those positions. And Daryl Henderson for me is the guy that definitely moves down and out of RB three territory. Towards the end of the season. You saw Cam Akers really come on strong and do some very big things. So for me, it’s Henderson moving out the Arizona RBs kind of stay in the same and Eckeler moving up. So let’s go ahead and move on over to our blind player comparison, which is where we were heading before some internet difficulties. But I’m gonna name off some players here I’ve got three players and you get to know their stats, their their finishing position and their ATP for 2020. And want to see which one of those just based off the stats would you want them will reveal the players name and after you know the players name, does that really change the opinion of that player towards 2021 type of thing. So Player A had the finish of running back 19 last year 147 carries for 691 yards and six touchdowns. He had 33 catches on 46 targets for 314 yards through the air and two touchdowns had an ADP of 49 last year. Player B was running back 21 had 134 carries for 805 yards and nine touchdowns. Eight receptions on 24 targets for 124 yards zero touchdowns through the air with an ADP of 90 Player C was running back 27 last year 142 carries for 584 yards, three touchdowns, 41 receptions on 47 targets 388 yards, two touchdowns, and was a consensus on drafted player. So what are your thoughts there on players ABC? Who are you wanting out of that grouping?

Blind Player Comparison

Kevin 13:19
I think for the value of where you’re getting them i like i like Player B because of the touchdowns I like that his yards per carry were up there so that shows you know some chunk plays they got added into that. The one downside is I don’t like the fact that they weren’t used as much in the passing game. Although the the the nine touchdowns make up for some of that. And as far as kind of the the finish of the RB if you can snag an undrafted RB and have him run your flex at Rb 27 That’s some you know, great value. Obviously he was used extremely well with the 142 carries plus the 47 targets so five carries behind I guess Player A had more. One more target and a few more receptions as well. So really overall it’s it’s probably player see for your bang for your buck. But I am going to be I’m interested to see who these guys are.

Derek 14:30
Okay, so the reveal. Player A was David Johnson running back out of Houston. Player B was J.K. Dobbins running back out of Baltimore. And player C was Myles Gaskins running back out of Miami. Okay, when the now knowing the names would that have really changed, you know, going, would that really changed your opinions on the finish for 20 28 Yeah, I

Kevin 15:06
think I think everybody kind of had a little bit higher aspirations as far as maybe where the where the finish was for J.K. Dobbins finishing it Rb 21 isn’t terrible. You probably drafted him as your second or third RB. So he fell right into there. But I think his stats look really great because he racked up all those touchdowns at the end of the season, right. He had six consecutive games with a touchdown to finish the season as he kind of niched out his role but the first half of the season, a lot of people were giving up on this guy, like he just wasn’t quite getting it done. Baltimore was kind of stuttering on offense and not really as fluid as they were in 2019. But I think Dobbins is is a guy that having all players on the board, he would be the guy that I would select first. Last year coming into the season, I was pretty positive about David Johnson because of where you were getting him. So I liked the fact that when we did some early dynasty drafts Derek and even I think a redraft or two, we were getting him, you know, ninth 10th round, I think you got him in one draft and to finish Rb 19, and you’re getting the guy that late. There’s nothing wrong with that. So that’s good. Myles Gaskin came out of nowhere. I’m okay with that. I still don’t still don’t know that I have all the faith in the world and Myles Gaskin, he’s just kind of another guy. He just doesn’t scream special to me. So he’s probably he probably him and David Johnson might be a coin flip because of David Johnson‘s age coming into this season and everything that they have going on. Probably lean Gaskin just for the youth side of things. But overall, it’s very, I think it’s very telling, right, very interesting that just because you draft these guys, you got to make sure you’re doing a lot of homework and paying attention to it because because their ATP does not reflect what they’re going to do once they’re playing live football. And it’s more than just, you know, picking names on a draft board.

Derek 17:15
Right. And it was also very interesting to looking at it from the standpoint that you know, going through that thing, and really kind of looking at last season we were way down on all rookies coming in because of the fact that they didn’t have your the rookie mini camps, they didn’t have OTAs they didn’t have really that offseason workout that we thought was going to be very, very necessary for these guys to develop and flourish in the way that they needed to. So I think we’re all a little surprised by the amount of rookies that came in and really just kind of set the world I set the league on fire, especially coming out the gate when you had different rookies at different positions really pop in early. You know you have a guy like Justin Herbert that finishes in quarterback one territory. You had several running backs do very well you know James Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins finished finished inside of top RB are inside of RB two territory. So there was a lot of rookies that ended up popping Justin Jefferson was another guy in the wide receivers that all of these guys popped and popped really, really, it was a little unexpected, I guess is a good way to say that from what we were projecting for these guys coming in, you know, going forward for 2021 for me, it’s J.K. Dobbins is going to be the the clear cut guy that I would be going with out of this group and he’s got a little bit of the name stay but he’s got the draft capital behind him. Something that you’re right now, David Johnson certainly doesn’t have he’s on that expiring contract type of deal. He’s got some some wear and tear on him and I Houston’s not committed to him long term. Same thing with miles Gaskin is a guy that that Miami we could very easily see Miami take a running back in day one or day two of the NFL Draft here and a couple of weeks and if that’s the case, miles Gaskin falls way down the draft board again. Now he could give a little bit of a surprise when it comes to his fantasy relevance next year. But I think it’s gonna be very telling what the dolphins do on draft day on what that’s going to look like. So out of those three players for 2021 jk Dobbins is a clear cut choice for me, which was Player B.

Kevin 19:26
Yeah, and I think one thing that adds into that is the path to touches is the clearest for JK Dobbins. He is obviously the draft capital that the Ravens spent on him is number one. Number two is that offensive philosophy like they run that RPO style offense. So you now that Mark Ingram has gone to Houston and now fighting David Johnson for Karis. That opens the door for JK Dobbins who It wouldn’t surprise me to see him move up that draft board. And if his if he’s still able to get all this usage inside the redzone, like he did last year, we could see him sneak inside RB one type territory. I don’t think he’s a top five back. I don’t think Lamar Jackson capsim a little bit, right because Lamar runs so well. So I do think that Dobbins is probably capped out somewhere, you know, most at probably Rb 10, maybe, or maybe RB nine, but it’s gonna be a touchdown dependent on how far up he can climb up that list. But I do think that you’re still able to get Dobbins in the, depending on the style of draft most draft, you’re gonna be able to pick them up in the third for redraft. So he can be your, you know, second or third running back and to have high end RB to upside. That’s exactly where you want it helps a stable of running backs. So he’s definitely a guy that I have flagged. He’s a guy on my, you know, wish list if he falls depending on how the draft falls and where I’m drafting.

Derek 21:09
Yeah, no, I think that’s pretty sage advice. And I think that Yeah, like we say every every year with with the draft, you know, you’ll you’ll see a lot of other folks sit there and say that they’re just playing out on a guy where that’s not necessarily the right way to look at it because everybody’s gonna have value depending upon where you’re able to take them in a draft you know, in a in a draft whether that’s dynasty whether that’s or whether that redress if you can find the right value for those guys, that’s where you’re gonna you know, win championships on is being able to assemble a roster that way and I I like where you’re talking because I do think that JK Dobbins is the guys gonna pick up maybe third, third, maybe fourth, depending upon who you’re drafting with. And the way people see you know what, that timeshare is going to look like between him and Gus Edwards. So absolutely, if you can get him as a second or third running back on your roster, I think that’s a great move. And something that will be very beneficial for you long term fantasy for next year. So cool. I think that’s gonna take us on over into the Vikings. And the Vikings have some very interesting, your fantasy relevant pieces when you’re talking it. So, you know, for everybody tuning in live, you know, when we go through these, when we go through these teams of the week, as we call them, we go through and we where we see these guys, you know, what kind of positional grouping that they’ll be in, where maybe the projections that we see for them the draft stock, you know, we’re gonna focus primarily on a lot of redraft. But, you know, Kevin, I think that there’s some good options out there for either best ball or dynasty. We’ll make sure to mention that there as well. So let’s go ahead and start where we always do and that is over in the running back room and they’ve got an elite running back there. Dalvin Cook is running back one over there on Minnesota. He finished last year at RB three on the season. 312 rush attempts, 1557 yards far, sorry, 16 rushing touchdowns, 44 receptions on 54 targets for 361 and two, one through the air. What are your thoughts on Dalvin Cook?

Dalvin Cook RB Minnesota Vikings 2021 Fantasy Football

Kevin 23:24
I expect similar production this year, I think I think Dalvin Cook is clearly a top four running back and and I know some people would argue higher I don’t hear many people arguing lower. And a lot of that’s because the volume he gets the lion’s share of the volume. The Minnesota Vikings offense and offensive line has been geared towards his skill set. And even with the addition of Justin Jefferson, who we’ll get to later, I don’t see Minnesota turning into an air raid team. They want to control the ball they want to play from ahead and squeeze the clock a little bit last year they had some defensive injuries and a couple holes that they realized that they had so I feel like they’re working on addressing those to try and put themselves in better shape but Dobbins delvin is right there like if Christian McCaffrey is everybody’s RB one, right? And then you kind of have this group of 2345 very much like last year and you know, and whether you still believe in say Quan or not he could be in there whether you still believe in Zeke or not. He could be in there. And then you have a lot Jonathan Taylor, folks, you know, the Jonathan Taylor truth will tell you he’s a top five back in Indy, which is very hard to argue. You can see a clear path to that. And then Alvin Kamara folks who are still holding out hope for him. I’m a little skittish on on Kumara just because Drew Brees in the quarterback there anymore, but I digress. We’ll get to that later on. So, overall, the biggest, the biggest advice I can give when drafting Dalvin Cook, is make sure you’re a little deeper at running back. If you’re drafting Dalvin Cook, because he is a guy who has spent more time on the sideline than these other top five running backs. So you’re drafting him, that’s perfectly fine. But, you know, when you’re going through your first six or seven rounds, you probably want to make sure you have either three really good running backs or two really good running backs and two really solid, you know, rb two RB three types behind him to be able to play out because chances are cooks only going to give you you know, 14 or 15 games out of the 17 game schedule that the NFL and now plays.

Derek 25:57
Yeah, no, that’s that’s pretty spot on to how I see it as well. I do see him, he is an elite level back in the NFL. And there’s very few of those guys that are elite level and will get the the lion’s share of a workhorse type of situation. So, you know, for me, it’s it’s gonna be CMC up there, number one, and then kind of that’s, you know, like we talked about tears, a lot of times, CMC is kind of a tear unto himself right now. And then you’ve got a lot of those other guys kind of fallen in there right behind him and Dalvin Cook definitely is in that range. Just simply from the standpoint that CMC is going to be a guy that’s going to command, you know, in the neighborhood of 100 receptions when he’s healthy. You know, as well as the fact that he’s going to also be back Dalvin Cook is a guy that’s going to get a lot of passing work. He’s got that skill set, able to make a catch out of the backfield, make a move and get up the field and go, also very good behind behind that running scheme. Gary Kubiak put in there, it’ll be very interesting to see how your Kubiak 2.0 puts this thing to play and how this is going to look and work with Gary Kubiak son now taking over as offensive coordinator there, I think we’ll see a lot of the same there. But I don’t know that you’re going to be able to get the same kind of value that you got on Dalvin Cook last year in the draft that you’ll use this year, I don’t see that happening, he’ll be a guy that’s going to vary, you can very easily see him taking maybe the second or third running back off the board. And that’s probably about where you’re going to see him finishes in that top four. Whereas last year, his he was running back six off the board with an average draft position of six as well. So he’s was certainly a first round talent last year. But he was drafted in the kind of that midpoint of the first round. And then he out produced that guy as well. So it’ll be interesting to see, I think that’s one of those that you’re not going to be able to get the same return on value this year just based on where he’s going to be drafted at but he is still an elite level running back that’s going to put up very, very good production and can be a an anchor point for your team. But I do like the the standpoint you brought up that you want to make sure you’re a little bit deeper at running back because he’s a guy that doesn’t typically get through all 16 or 17 games as as will be the case this season. He’s a guy that you know when healthy will still get through 1314 games and you want to make sure that you have a place that you can pivot. So you’re not giving up a week on that one as well. So I like that thought. Let’s go ahead and move on over to Alexander Madison, who is the backup over there finished last year as running back 5496 rush attempts, 434 yards, two rushing touchdown. It’s for 125 and one through the air. Your thoughts on Alexander Madison.

Alexander Mattison RB Minnesota Vikings 2021 Fantasy Football

Kevin 28:56
I like Alexander Mattison as a handcuff. He is a guy that if I’m drafting Dalvin Cook, I’m keeping an eye on Alexander Mattison and I’m not gonna wait. He’s the handcuff that you’re not trying to. Oh, well. Maybe he falls one more round. Oh, maybe I can wait till after the turn. You know, if you have cook, you’re going to want Mattison on your bench. It’s just you’ve essentially locked up two spots by drafting cook right because you have to get Mattison and really he showed it. So the interesting thing is so Dalvin Cook missed week six against Atlanta the week before there by and Dalvin Cook, or Alexander Mattison actually didn’t have a great game there. But what happened was Dalvin Cook got hurt the week before playing at Seattle. And Alexander Mattison came in 20 rushing attempts, 112 yards 5.6 yards per carry, right. So that’s the type of production that you want. He didn’t fall into the end zone that week. But that’s okay. And then Dalvin Cook also did not play week 17 the last game of the season against the Detroit Lions, well, Mattison stepped up and did exactly what you think he should do filling in, he had 21 carries for 95 yards, that’s still 4.5 yards a clip, and he got in the endzone for you. So if you had one of those mysterious, weak 17 championship games last year, there’s a if you had Alexander Madison and played him, you were probably rewarded. It was a very strong performance and a great way for him to end the season. So yeah, I like I like Alexander Mattison, and he’s coming into year three. So although it’s not a contract year, for him, he I think, you start realizing that he’s going to have to put things on tape, because I don’t see the Vikings being able to keep both I do see Madison being able to garner free agent attention from probably a couple different teams, and we’ll leave to get his shot somewhere. So Mattison probably realizes that he’s going to start putting some things on tape. I think his usage might pick up just, you know, a little bit cuz he was dinged up in weeks 13 and 14 and wasn’t able to play but, you know, I expect him to kind of build off the momentum that he finished the 2020 season with and not. I don’t think that he’s going to vulture things away from Dalvin Cook. But I do think that Alexander Madison is just going to organically have more opportunities because the Minnesota Vikings will be leading in the second half of games more than they were last year where they’re having to throw the ball so damn much to play catch up.

Derek 31:53
No, absolutely what up Smitty over from the fantasy football show, saying, sup, fellas, thanks for tuning in. I appreciate you being here. Thanks for everybody tuning in. I couldn’t agree more with you, Kevin, that he’s a guy that this year, you’re gonna see him have to put things on tape in order to really come to play going forward on this thing. He’s a guy that, you know, it was interesting, because you saw a lot of people in the fantasy community kind of get down on him. Six performance because of the fact that he didn’t shine like we thought he would come and out, you know, in the absence of Dalvin Cook simply from the standpoint that Minnesota didn’t play that great of a game that week. But that being the case, week 17, you still saw him show up which we talked about value in the draft all the time. For the average fantasy viewer out there. They tend to tune out once there once their season’s over. And so one of the piece of advice, you know, always kind of talked about is keep keep tabs of everything going on there. And that if you weren’t paying attention to week seven, he showed you what is possible for him which is a top five finish on a week. And that can be a weak winner for you. So if you’re drafting Dalvin Cook my advice is still handcuff him with Alexander Madison. That’s something that a lot of times we’ll talk about where you’re going through and you’re talking about drafting a guy and then handcuffing him Dalvin Cook‘s one of the few running backs out there, that is a very good idea to handcuff to handcuff and get that guy because of the fact that the the offense is so baked into using the run game on that, that if dalvin is not there, the backup will get run. And we saw that come to fruition in week 17. While we didn’t necessarily see that in week, six, da Alexander Madison definitely has value and can be a valuable asset for your fantasy team. So I like what you’re saying there. I think that you know, even though he didn’t necessarily live up to his ATP last year, slightly out a slightly underperformed that average draft position of a running back 45. Running back 54 still kind of puts you in that territory. So guy that you want on your bench, especially if you’ve got dalvin is a guy that if I’m playing basketball is kind of interesting, too. Because if dalva misses time, you got to know best ball format. You don’t necessarily have to try and pick the week, something like that. But you could get a pop week and away you go. So cool. Let’s go ahead and move on over to the wide receiver room.

Kevin 34:26
One last thing on that. So Alexander Mattison‘s average draft position right now is about 10.6 in a 12 team league. So you’re getting them middle, you know, or excuse me 10.3. So you’re getting them top of the 10th round. So if you’re paying attention that 10.3 is actually coming the other way, right? So you have you start at the left and you work your way right but the even rounds work right and work your way to the left. So that means a lot of guys who are draft Cook are missing out on Madison because they’re trying to sandbag that and wait. So as we were talking earlier, if you’re drafting cook, you want Alexander Madison, on your team to be able to fill in for roles like that. So that means you need to take a really, really good hard look at him in the ninth round. And what that also means is you might be sacrificing a tight end, you know, in that kind of second tier of tight ends that falls down there or something of that nature, but it’s just something that has to be built into your thought process when you’re drafting, right. If you’re drafting cooker first, you know, okay, so the ninth round is, is pretty much my last chance, if you’re just playing a hometown League, you might be able to squeeze Mattison into the 10th. That’s possible. But if you’re playing with a even just half a league of people who know what they’re doing with fantasy football, and you want Madison, the ninth round is the time to do it.

Derek 36:00
No, absolutely. Absolutely. That’s a strategy we always talk about, and I very much appreciate you throwing that one in there, Kevin. Let’s go ahead and move on over to the wide receiver room. Justin Jefferson was kind of that breakout darling that standout. Finished as wide receiver six last year at eight receptions. 125 targets 1400 yards seven, seven. I’m sorry, shooty. Seven, receiving touchdowns. And yeah, what are your thoughts around Justin Jefferson?

Justin Jefferson WR Minnesota Vikings 2021 Fantasy Football

Kevin 36:36
Yeah, I liked what Jefferson did. He came out of nowhere. And anyone who said that they called it please. You know, tweet us over it at Google boys FF and show us where you did that because Justin Jefferson was being talked about as the fourth or third wide receiver on the Minnesota depth chart all throughout the preseason, and the FAU training camp that these guys had. And it wasn’t until about week, two and a half, if you will were Jefferson all of a sudden emerged and they realized that this kid’s too stinking good to put them on the sideline. And he became kind of the, you know, the the wing man to Adam Thielen. And really in a lot of ways you served him last year because he wasn’t seeing some of that extra coverage. Jefferson is extremely agile, he runs a very good route he does he has a lot of great body control, right. So when the balls in the air and Jefferson’s having to jump up or reach back for that ball, he showed good control of his body and focus to be able to come down with those catches, much like he did at LSU. So that part of his game translated very well to the NFL. I do think we’re going to see a little bit of progression. Part of it’s going to be the touchdowns and part of it is I think teams are going to key in on this and I think instead of rolling coverage towards Thielen, you’re gonna see a lot of coverage rolled towards Jefferson, when the Minnesota Vikings are playing catch up mode. As long as things stay balanced for the Minnesota Vikings, Justin Jefferson is going to be able to be very successful because teams have to concentrate on stopping Dalvin Cook. Because he’s a elite running back. He’s an all pro caliber running back. And if you don’t focus on stopping him, they will carve you up through the ground. So as long as Minnesota’s game script continues to stay positive, Justin Jefferson is going to be pushing probably these numbers that he that he put out for us last year. But if the Vikings are trailing, I think Jeff Jefferson’s numbers actually slipped a little bit in a negative game scripts because teams will focus more in on him and his big play ability and making sure they don’t give up the big one, like they did so often in 2020. And you might actually see Adam Thielen reap some of those benefits as you can kind of get him a few pics later in the draft.

Derek 39:15
No, absolutely. And that was one of those that Yeah, now it’s time to kind of you know, go back and eat some words from last year for for me anyway, right? Like I remember. Right after they they drafted Justin Jefferson go into a team with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs had already left for buffalo. I remember on our show saying something to the extent of, you know, they’ve got two slot guys who’s gonna play on the outside and quite frankly, they proved me wrong on that one because both of those guys, you know, really made hay on the outside and the fact that you’ve got both Thielen and Jefferson here are able to, you know, keep the fields bred a little doesn’t allow them to necessarily load the box up against Dalvin Cook and at the same time They’re not able to necessarily key in on those ride receivers because the fact you got Dalvin Cook. It’s a very complementary, complementary type of setup and system there. So I could see some, I do see some progression happening here. Just from the standpoint 1400 yards is incredibly difficult to repeat. And it’s one that we don’t typically see a lot of receivers repeat year over year over year kind of thing. Now I do see him easily being over 1000 yard receiver again, see him probably about the same area as far as touchdowns go, you’re probably talking somewhere between seven and 10 touchdowns. So I see him probably regressing a little bit but still being a very strong kind of fringe wide receiver one to territory for me, but I do think that you’re right that you’re gonna see him actually take some coverage, some additional coverage there, which could end up freeing up Adam Thielen there a little bit as well. So it’ll be very interesting to see but you talk about a guy that drastically outperforms his ADP that was a guy that did it. I was drafted wide receiver 48 the board or draft 39 so you’re talking to a guy that was taken, you know, well after the 10th round and a guy that got your wide receiver one kind of weeks, several times throughout the year and a top six finish for wide receivers as well. So absolutely phenomenal as a rookie. Let’s go ahead and move on over to Adam Thielen who finished as wide receiver eight last year 74 receptions 104 108 targets at 925 yards 14 touchdowns. Your thoughts on Adam Thielen?

Adam Thielen WR Minnesota Vikings 2021 Fantasy Football

Kevin 41:40
like Adam Thielen I liked him coming in last year, I thought he’d dominate the target share. Didn’t quite turn out like that. But I still I still have a lot of respect for his game. I like the values that I can get for Adam Thielen. So, Adam Thielen is going kind of that middle part of the fourth round for his current ADP, which is 4.7. He’s the 16th receiver off the board. So you’re taking a guy square kind of in the middle of that wide receiver two category with clear wide receiver one upside. Whereas Justin Jefferson‘s being drafted as the 11th receiver off the board. There’s maybe a little bit of upside there because of youth, but there’s not that gap, you still have to spend that premium with Jefferson drafting him. In the top half of the third round, we’re dealing you can get in the fourth round. So again, very similar outputs. Save the round look for a position different. It’s nothing against Justin Jefferson. This is just how I play the game, right where you can get the value and get the most out of where you’re drafting, dealing presents that he’s a guy who plays outside and inside, he has good rapport with Kirk Cousins. He has a knack for the end zone. For last year, he was dinged up a little bit. But for the most part, he’d been relatively healthy. So I like feeling he still has a lot of fire left in his game. And I think that he’s going to put forth a another top end RB to kind of low end RB one type performance. I see that coming for him in 2021. So he’s the guy that I’m looking at as a value pick and being able to kind of capitalize on that.

Derek 43:26
Yeah, no, that’s I’m right there with you. Question for you, though. Guys. When you look at Adam Thielen season last year, it reminded me a lot of Cooper cup in 2019 where it was one that you know, touchdowns, definitely kind of saved the day is in 2019 you had Cooper cup, you know as a phenomenal finish and then regressed drastically here in 2021. Big arm I’m sorry, in 2020 because of the fact that his touchdowns came back, it came down to earth a little bit and we saw some of that some of those touchdowns go to Robert Woods last year. So my question for you is do you see something similar like that happening in 2021 with Thielen and Jefferson? Um,

Kevin 44:10
I don’t think it’s going to be as drastic. So I think the Adam Thielen is not going to see as much double coverage. I think that they will reserve that for Jefferson. I think part of that might be scheme as Jefferson enters his second year. So you could see Thielen play more in the slot than what he did last year, which he’s actually a better slot receiver than he is on the outside that that’s kind of how he made his name stay in 18 and 19 was by playing so much in the slot while they had digs on the outside. So you could see him resort resort back to some of that where Thielen was a little bit more successful, but efficient nonetheless. So, again, speaking to that Justin Jefferson regression like we did a couple minutes ago. I could see that coming down but I don’t See him going from wide receiver? I don’t see Jefferson going from you know wide, wide receiver five all the way down to wide receiver I think 19 is what Cooper cup finished some somewhere around that neighborhood. I don’t think you’re gonna see that steep of a fall off. I do think the quarterback play is probably a bit more consistent in Kirk Cousins than what the Rams had and Jared Goff. So I think that while there’s a bit of a downturn, it’s not going to be enough to make me hesitate if that’s a guy that I’m just gonna go get.

Derek 45:33
Fair enough, and I’m kind of right there with you on that one. I think he’s a guy that will outperform ADP again, and he will provide significant value for your fantasy football team. And just for everybody out there Listen, if you guys got some comments, things like that, that you want to throw out there, make sure you throw them up there. We love the interaction guys, appreciate you being here. But for for me with Thielen I see him regressing as far as touchdowns go but I see his yardage, bouncing back up because of what you just said there. As far as you know, Jefferson’s going to draw more coverage out of out of opposing defenses. You’ll see a lot of teams I think try and scheme Jefferson out of the game a little bit or decrease his role a little bit. So it’s one of those that I actually see both of them kind of having a little bit of a evening out there where person probably loses some of the yardage there but maybe picks up one or two more touchdowns. And whereas you’ll see Thielen lose some of those touchdowns but pick up some yardage there as well. So I think you’ll end up seeing them balance each other out. And I think that, you know you’re talking value in the fourth round. A guy like Adam Thielen in the fourth round is a very, very good value and as a guy that you could put on your team, depending upon how your first three rounds went as a wide receiver to is not even a bad way to start off if that’s got to be the first wide receiver on your team. So some very interesting things that play there. And I think that you’ll see Adam Thielen again, outperformance ATP in 2021. Let’s go ahead and move on over to the dead ends and some interesting things going on with the tight ends you got Irv Smith Jr. There. Sans a Kyle Rudolph. So it was one of those that I remember last year when we covered the Vikings and we’re looking at this thing. It was tough to really get behind either Kyle Rudolph or Smith Jr. Just from the standpoint that both of those tight ends. We’re going to definitely kind of eat into one another. And and yes, Manny. I would say that, that you see Adam Thielen yards tick up a bit this year. I see him being well over 1000 yard receiver this year. Any thoughts on the yardage for feelin there, Kevin?

Kevin 47:45
Now I think I do think it comes up as he plays a little bit more in the slot as like we’ve discussed with feeling like coverage is going to roll towards Jefferson dealings going to see a bit more that I wouldn’t be surprised to see him with 1100 ish yards receiving maybe just a tick over and being able to see him capitalize on some of the more off coverage, I guess is the term I’m looking for. He’ll see more off coverage than Jefferson will for the season.

Derek 48:15
Absolutely. So with Irv Smith, Jr, right? Like we were talking last year about the fact of who was going to be the guy in Minnesota for the tight end room and it was one that we were kind of all out on either option there just from the standpoint that both were going to cannibalize so much each other so much and that was the case of the point where you didn’t really see either one of those guys Kyle Rudolph or herb Smith really kind of break out there or really get the lion’s share of the workload. But Kyle Rudolph is gone this year and herb Smith finished last year is the 22nd wide. I’m sorry 22nd tight end 30 receptions 43 targets 365 yards and five touchdowns. Your thoughts on Irv Smith Jr.

Irv Smith Jr. TE Minnesota Vikings 2021 Fantasy Football

Kevin 49:01
Also while his 20 well herb Smith 2020 numbers don’t scream tied, you know tied in must go see his last four games of the season where where he kind of stepped up and really made his season for him. So the last four games of season, four for four for 63 for for three for 37, nine for six for 53 and two touchdowns and then three for two for 30. So or excuse me that for for for gaming at a touchdown as well. So while Kirk Cousins has kind of gotten away from the tight end game, right, we thought we’d see a bit more of that coming from back in his days of Washington playing with Jordan Reed, and then coming over his first season with Kyle Rudolph was fairly successful but not quite as much as what we wanted to see and then it’s decreased since then. I do see herb Smith taking a step up into this offense. And being able to soak up some of those catches. Part of the problem is herb Smith such a damn good run blocking tight end that Minnesota has a hard time letting him go out and run routes a whole lot. So even while he’s on the field, he’s not getting the route consideration because of how this Kubiak style offense really formats. A lot of double tight end where Rudolph was getting snuck out. And herb Smith was staying in this year. They brought in Travis Conklin to have herb Smith there. So that should be Irv Smith role to take as the receiving tight end, so we should see an uptick. I don’t know if it’s enough of an uptick to get outside of what are tied into. So he might go from TE 22, he might jump up to TE 14. I think that’s possible, just to see that natural progression in his career coming into year three. But herb Smith is still the second Titan on my roster. If I’m drafting two of them. He’s not a guy that I’m searching after. He’s a nice value piece kind of late and draft because he’s young, he’s on he’s on a team that isn’t afraid to throw the ball around when they have to, even though it’s a run style offense, but he’s not a guy that I’m penciling in and saying, Yeah, this is the guy have to have lightened drafts, I’d be looking at some other options for a little bit more consistency. Out of that, at least for a starting tight end. And then if herb Smith falls to you super late and you need him for a second. He’s a great piece to add.

Derek 51:39
Yeah, absolutely. He’s a, you hit the nail on the head. He’s a very good run back run blocking tight end. And that’s something that you know, I think has been a little bit to his detriment sometimes when it comes to the passing game because the fact that he doesn’t necessarily get out there. It’ll be interesting though, to see if you know how Minnesota is going to use him with the fact that they don’t have you know, Kyle Rudolph in that backfield or in that tight end room as well, just from the standpoint. Last year, you saw Irv Smith consistently have about 60% of the snaps when it came to it. He had some games that you know he was up there at your at almost 90% of the snaps and other games where he was 35% of the snaps. And with the tight ends anymore, it’s you know, where is the pipe Titan going to score their points, it’s gonna be that they fell in the end zone on a week and we’ve seen that time and time again, where you can have a tight end that didn’t necessarily get more than four 500 total yards, but they finished up in territory so because they fell into the end zone, you know, eight nine times on the season and so one of those that I think that’s where some of the upside may be with herb Smith is the fact that without Kyle Rudolph being there to be that red zone target again, you may see him get up there and that eight maybe nine touchdown territory this year, but I don’t see him having a much bigger role in the passing game. I don’t see him getting more than maybe 500 yards passing. I don’t I see your your perceptions and targets maybe tick up a little bit. But where I think you’re gonna get an increase in value is if he is catching a couple more touchdowns through the when they get down in that red zone. So

Kevin 53:24
I think that’s pretty safe. I think somewhere in the neighborhood of you know, 65 targets for herb Smith Jr. We’ll call it you know, 47 catches for Yeah, probably about 530 yards or something like that. And then touchdowns. touchdowns for tight ends are so stinking hard to predict, but you figure he’s gonna fall in the endzone, you know, four or five times as a floor just through the course of a 17 week season. So if you can stay healthy and his groin issues are past him that kind of nagged him last year a little bit then I expect all that to come up but even with those numbers that still puts you at tight into territory like he’s still not quite made that leap of you know, the top 12 guys to where you know like myself I’ve preached you know weight on Titan weight on Titan and if your name’s not Travis, Kelsey or George kittel I’m not even looking at you and even those guys I have a hard time giving up you know a starting running back for a tight end but that’s just my cup of tea so we’ll see how it shakes out but the opportunity for him is going to be there it’s just a matter of Do you peg Irv Smith as that third year Titan breakout, or are you seeing him as just another guy in a long list of Titans that are you know, boom or bust? Yeah, he might be good this week, but he’s gonna be kind of terrible the next week just based off of how the game script goes.

Derek 54:54
Yeah, I think that’s kind of how I see him as boom bust tight end and it’s gonna be a did he fall into the endzone did he Yeah, it did he score a touchdown and that’s gonna be where his value lies. Though he could be DFS type of play going forward but dynasty maybe some intrigue just because of the fact that he’s so young still and he’s got a little bit of that third year and that’s where you kind of look for Titan breakouts is that third year but he’s not that guy that I’m projecting to be that third year tight end breakout so I like what you said kind of that tied in to on the team. Yeah, be that backup by week type of fill in there. So that’s that’s kind of the value that I’m seeing him there as well. Let’s go ahead and move on over to the quarterback room. And Kirk Cousins is still the quarterback over there in Minnesota. Finished as qb 11. Last year 349, completions on 516 attempts, 4265 yards, 35 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and additional 32 rushing attempts for 156 and one on the ground. Your thoughts on Kirk Cousins?

Kirk Cousins QB Minnesota Vikings 2021 Fantasy Football

Kevin 56:06
Kirk Cousins is the guy who is constantly undervalued in fantasy circles. Kirk Cousins is a guy that you consistently see as the 16th 17th 18th quarterback off the board. If even that high in some drafts, there’s some more I’ve seen him go as the as like the 21st or 22nd quarterback off the board. And then he puts up QB one or borderline QB one type numbers. So there’s there’s a ton of value with Kirk Cousins, right? We talked about value on the draft board and how to make it up. Kirk Cousins is a wonderful superflex quarterback because you can go get your guy early. And then you can wait and draft a couple other pieces that you want around that. And then Kirk Cousins is still gonna be there for you. And by the time the season’s over with Yes, he will have one or two really crappy stinker games along the way. But the total bill of goods, you’re still sitting there at quarterback 11 like you were in 2020. So he’s he is undervalued. He’s not afraid to let it rip. At times he might be a little bit too cautious built within the offense, but we saw last year that he’s not afraid to let it go. Whether it’s Justin Jefferson streaking down the sideline or Stefon Diggs before him. Adam Thielen shows flashes of it depending on the game script, so he has some good weapons around him in Jefferson Thielen and herb Smith Jr. Not to mention Dalvin Cook coming out of the backfield. So it allows them to stay balanced. They don’t have to put the entire game on his arm. They don’t want him throwing 45 to 50 times a game. But if they can consistently have him throw 35 times a game. He’s efficient enough that he continues to put up points for fantasy. And in Super flex leagues. He is absolutely a guy I’m looking at kind of as a you know, a sneaky jab to the rest of the league, right? Like Okay, you guys. Go do your thing. And and, you know, waste these premium Picks on your second quarterback. And I’m gonna wait two more rounds. And I’m gonna grab Kirk Cousins. And instead I built up in a skill position set, whether it’s receiver or running back and see who shakes out on the end, because I have two QB ones on my roster now. And you took a clear one and a clear two.

Derek 58:35
Yeah, no, absolutely. And that’s you hit the nail on the head there because he will put up just a couple of games that aren’t necessarily up to up to snuff up to par. But that’s to be expected out of most fantasy players. There’s a very few exceptions out there where any positional player doesn’t put up a stinker on a weekend Kirk Cousins last year only had two finishes outside of top 24 when it came to quarterback, but was actually kind of very consistent in the quarterback. At one territory, nine weeks of the 18 he was I’m sorry, nine weeks out of the 16 he was a top 12 quarterback had five finishes in that your quarterback to territory and was a guy last year that had an ADP of quarterback 24 off the board. So he was very easily a guy that drastically outperformed it and you hit the nail on the head when you’re talking value because you don’t get much better value than a guy that was taken right around the end of quarterback to beginning of quarterback three territory and finishes in quarterback one territory. And one of those that he’s consistently not mentioned in the same breath as a lot of these other guys that have the ability to finish and quarterback one territory. I remember an episode not long ago where we were talking and I don’t remember the quarterback It was on the board. But I said I’d much rather have a Ryan Tannehill or a Kirk Cousins as my second quarterback for superflex. And I think it was Daniel Jones, Daniel Jones was the quarterback and I said, I would rather have both Kirk Cousins or Ryan Tannehill as my second quarterback, just from the standpoint that I get to take them right around the same ADP as a Daniel Jones, but they traditionally are going to outperform Him and do better overall. Now, we’ll see how that looks in plays with the Kenny Golladay signing over there. But Kirk Cousins has to premier wide receivers that can do very big things. He’s got a run game to help establish, you know, line of scrimmage and make defenses honest on both the run and the pass. So I think it’s gonna be very interesting, I see a lot more of the same of him this year, I don’t know that he sneaks all the way up into quarterback one territory, but he’s a guy that, yeah, if I’m going to put it in a range, I see him finishing anywhere from about 11 to 15. Quarterback when the 2021 season is done, and he’s a guy that again, I think is going to be drafted behind quarterback 20, somewhere in the quarterback 20 range. So a ton a ton a ton of value there. And is one that if I’m I’m watching the draft board, and I see him falling to me, like that’s one that I can’t wait to, to kind of plant the flag on and just ride that one to some victories. Some Oh, Kevin, I do believe that that’s gonna, you know, wrap up this episode. Any final thoughts for the listeners

Kevin 1:01:42
pay attention to these last couple pro days coming up. So Justin Fields is having his second pro day, the jets and Niners are both going to be in attendance. Part of it smokescreen part of it, one of these teams is probably doing their homework, it will be interesting to see who else shows up for this second pro day. We’re inching closer. So now is where the slightest bit of negative news can really rock someone’s draft status. And a guy that you thought for sure was going, you know, in the upper half of the first round, can fall all the way to the bottom of the second. If if the news is, you know that damning on them. So pay attention to it, I know there’s gonna be a lot of different pools and kind of margining up opportunities, if you will, around the draft, and I partake in some of those mock draft boards all the time. And, and not to mention a few work pools of who’s going where, to what teams, so I’m looking forward to it, but just keep your eye out because teams will float out a lot of news, some of its good, some it’s bad, but legal news, news that gets them into trouble and paints them into a negative light. That is that is truly cause for concern. So those are the things that you want to look out for is well, they got arrested for possession or they got popped with a DUI or, you know, God forbid any sort of domestic, you know, violence case, like we don’t want to see it guys but it does happen. And it does affect draft stock and and their status as these teams are evaluating them. Because the room for error is razor thin. And all these guys should know that by now. Hopefully, they’re all kind of just holed up inside their their home. And they’re going from home to the gym to the film room and back to home and then back to the gym, and then the film room again. So these guys should be getting it by now. But other than that, just stay tuned, we got a lot of cool things coming our way. Check out the website. Obviously we’re always on Twitter, the YouTube. Thank you for tuning in and watching kind of our, I guess our first solo, if you will live stream of the good old boys fantasy football podcast. So we appreciate it. And as always, comments, concerns, questions, shoot them our way, we’re more than happy to talk shop any chance we get.

Derek 1:04:18
Absolutely. And, you know, for anybody out there watching that, you know, has some interest in the draft which if you’re watching this, I’m sure that you got some interest in the NFL Draft. We did a live stream with the first round fantasy guys live. It’s all about our YouTube channel. good old boys fantasy football podcast YouTube channel. Check it out there you can find it on the Twitter, it’s over on Twitch as well. Make sure that you’re checking all of those things out. It was a lot of fun. Always having a blast when when we get together with those guys. And it sounds like we’ve got some big things in the works and plans going forward as well. Yeah, talking time More with fantasy first rounders live. So, a great group of guys if you haven’t followed them, get over there, check it out, give them a follow as well. But Kevin, I do believe that that’s going to wrap up yet another episode of the Good Old Boys Fantasy Football pod cast. Make sure that you are a follow over on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook Twitch. We’re at good old boys FF and we’ve got that YouTube channel for you good old boys fantasy football podcast. Give us a follow there the website GoodOldBoysFF.com, tons of great content out there for you guys and a ton of different forms. Make sure that you’re signing up following us to get all of that. appreciate everybody tuning in for Kevin. I’m Derek and we should see Alex back next week. Have a good one. Be safe.