Detroit Lions 2021 NFL Fantasy Football Analysis

Intro  00:05

You’re listening to the good old boys fantasy football podcast. Now here’s your host, Kevin, Derek and Alex.

Derek  00:11

Alrighty, welcome in ladies and gentlemen to another episode of the good old boys fantasy football Podcast. I am Derek and I am joined by your co host, Kevin Alex will unfortunately not be able to be with us tonight, he’s dealing with some of the crazy weather that’s been hitting the country and dealing with some of the after Aftermath and effects of that. So guys, make sure that you hop on to the website, we’ve got that good old boys, f f.com website for you sign up for the newsletter, so you’re not missing any of the content coming. All these players that we’ve been analyzing for the fantasy season, we’re going to be uploading a lot of those player profiles coming through there. So make sure that you click onto that website. good old boys ff.com that’s godoldboysff.com sign up for that newsletter. Do not miss a thing coming from us guys. Let’s go ahead and move on over we’ve got a team of the week to break down and we’ve got the Detroit Lions on the on the slate and a little bit of a coaching change happening there. Matt Patricia no longer Dan Campbell is now the head coach over there in Detroit. And you know, some some very interesting makeup and pieces and a lot of things you still have to try and figure out this with this team going into next year and what that’s going to look like but we’ll go ahead and start where we always do and that’s in the running back room. So D’Andre Swift finished as running back 18 last year 114 carries 521 yards on the ground, eight rushing touchdowns, 46 receptions for 57 on 57 targets 357 yards to the air and additional to receiving touchdowns. What are your thoughts on D’Andre Swift?

Kevin  02:00

D’Andre Swift had a kind of a quiet but very productive rookie season. He started out the year in just about the worst way possible in the lions bears game where he was running backwards and drop that pass that Matt Stafford just dropped right on his numbers right and Swift let that one get through and cross the lines the game they should have won that one. And he kind of got put in the doghouse. And then the lions played running back care. So it was a little bit of Kerryon Johnson a little bit of Adrian Peterson. Swift would disappear for a game or two and then he kind of got rolling. And then right as he got rolling, I believe is a high ankle sprain knocked him out for or knows that concussion is the concussion that he got in practice, knocked him out for a couple games and really kind of derailed it. So to finish running back 18 is still pretty impressive in my mind because he missed quite a bit of time his rookie season one because of the concussion and one because of absentminded coaching he was clearly the best and most dynamic running back while on the field Adrian Peterson served well but But father time is catching up with AP like he he can do some of the things he shows flashes of brilliance to three times a season everyone goes wow Peterson look like an old like his old self and then the rest of the season you see him getting stood up at the line of scrimmage with never happened in his prime and some different things Swift is also the best receiving back that they have. So I expect him to have a very good 2021 I expect him to take on more that featured back role and and I also think that you’re going to be able to get him not necessarily at a discount but he’s a running back that has upper RB two traits he could even sneak into the back half of that RB one conversation if they truly decide to feature him in Detroit, but you’re not going to have to pay that first or second round value on him. He’s a guy that you could diversify a little bit and you can go wide receiver with your first pick right if you if you go davante Adams right and you take him seventh overall and then you could follow that back up with a player like a Oh, who’s gonna be in that range? You might see a Josh Jacobs wood guy we were talking about a little bit last week and comparisons and kind of everything goes there you can see him kind of fall in that area you might be able to get an Aaron Jones in that area depending on that ghost and then follow that up with a Swift like there’s just ways to build around it so Swift is he’s a great one cut back. His vision is very good. He’s still slightly undersized. I’m hoping that this fall offseason and without the COVID restrictions, allows him to get into the weight room a little bit and build on on his stature slightly and maybe be a little bit tougher at the line of scrimmage. But overall, he has the skill set to be the best running back that came out last year. Like everyone wants to talk about Jonathan Taylor and what he did with the Colts. But D’Andre Swift actually has a better skill set in my opinion than Taylor. That was a big conversation that we had going into the draft last year was a lot of us thought Swift was going to the chiefs and the Chiefs just changed up and they picked CEH. And then Swift went the next day to the Detroit Lions. So the skill sets there is ability is is by far the best that they have on that team. So I do expect to be featured more in 2021, which should lead to a fantasy success.

Derek  05:54

do say they came up very recently in a couple of reports, saying that D’Andre Swift has the makeup and the makings of being a three down back and has the ability to be, you know, has this special skill set to be a feature back there. And you know, when the coaching staffs talking that highly of a of you, that typically means very good things, it means that they’re seeing things in there. And with the draft capital that they had, it looks like they’ll continue that going forward. But it was a little disappointing, because, you know, during the front half of the season, right up until the bye week, right, those first four or five, four games, they very much we’re featuring a lot of Adrian Peterson and given him the run on that. And then after the bye week, they made the shift and D’Andre Swift finishes running back number three on the week, and really put up a great game and was really kind of you saw that workhorse type of back show up and be kind of three to three down guy. And the games that they featured him where he was getting, you know, 1516 touches, he was a top 12 running back. And he’s like you’re saying, Kevin, he definitely has the ability and the skill set in order to be a very productive, very talented guy in this one. I just don’t know, with what you’re seeing in Detroit and how that things stacking up for next year, I don’t know that you’re going to see him really clear that top 12 Mark, and so I I’m going to put him probably finishing similar is probably a little bit better than he did this past year, but probably finishing somewhere around running back 1415 when it’s all said and done. But he is a guy that I think you can probably get a little bit of a deal on because I think he’ll be drafted, probably running back. I’m gonna say probably 1718 off the board. So a guy that you probably see taken in the third to fourth round somewhere in there. And that’s a guy that has the upside to definitely pay off. It really just depends on how this new coaching staff is going to utilize him going into it. If they utilize them like they’re talking about have a three down back, he absolutely has a ton of upside. But if they’re going to, you know, play running back by committee, like they did this last year for a lot of that season, that’s going to definitely put a cap on what that ceiling is, and maybe even a little bit and lowers that floor a little bit down there as well. So something to be looking out for and you know, maybe slightly concerned about heading into the season. Yeah, I

Kevin  08:16

do think and we will get into this as we continue the team breakdown, but the lack of options in the passing game, I do think will lead to added opportunity for D’Andre Swift. And and yes, the lions are probably going to be trailing in quite a few games. But that that’s okay. He can get 567 targets in the passing game for four or five catches and still be fantasy relevant that way, especially how most not all but most formats nowadays are at least a half point PPR if not a full point. So I think he’ll make up for some of it that way. I don’t think he’s going to run for 1200 yards on the ground. But I think you could see him with 875 to 900 rushing yards, somewhere in that neighborhood of six or seven touchdowns again, but you’ll see his receiving stats tick up a little bit right. So maybe he gets three or four receiving touchdowns on what 45 grabs something like that. And yeah, he he may not break RB one, but you’re not drafting him to be an RB one. If he gets to that point. Your Money ahead right, the value just continues to climb. So if you’re taking D’Andre Swift in however, the draft board falls to your right as a RB two as maybe an RB three depending on how that draft board falls like holy smokes. If you can get Swift in the third in the fourth round, do you get them at the top of the fourth round and he’s your third running back. that’s a that’s a damn good setup. Like you got to be happy with that leaving draft day. So, to your point, Derek, yes. We’ll see how it actually plays out. It’s good that they’re speaking highly of him already this offseason, game flow will be playing against him it for a large majority of the season it feels like but I think his receiving ability and his willingness to get better at past pro he was a really good pass protector while at Georgia. He struggled a little bit in the professional game here last year, but I think this offseason, he’ll, like I said, bulk up a little bit. It’ll help him pass protection. So it’ll keep him on the field a bit more. And I do expect him to be like, like I said, very top end of RB two, I could see him possibly sneak into the bottom of the RB one category.

Derek  10:50

Alrighty, Kerryon Johnson finishes running back 66 last year 52 rushes 181 yards on the ground, two rushing touchdowns, 19 receptions on 26 targets 187 yards through the air and one receiving touchdowns. What are your thoughts on Kerryon Johnson,

Kevin  11:06

I feel like Kerryon kind of got put in the doghouse for just not being able to stay healthy. Right? It wasn’t that his performances were that bad when he was on the field. But his availability to be on the field is kind of what hampered that. And then when you bring in an Adrian Peterson, who even at his advanced age, as far as running backs go, never really seems to miss a game. He’s always ready to hit somebody, and then you draft Swift, so you got to get him in the game. On top of the fact that again, the lions were trailing for a good part of the season. So Stafford was throwing the ball to play catch up. And then Stafford was knocked out with a back injury. And so then you’re having backup quarterbacks come in and they don’t utilize running backs in the passing game like they should because they’re not comfortable with the timing and all these things. So Kerryon Johnson is probably better than the 66 best fantasy running back in the league. But I don’t know that he’s so much better that it’s really going to eat in to a ton of what D’Andre Swift does. I don’t know that the lions are going to bring AP back I’d quite frankly be a little bit surprised if they do. They’re in a rebuild mode at the moment. You draft another young guy you kind of sandwich Kerryon Johnson in between, if you will. And so I could see him brb 43, somewhere around there. So a little bit of improvement just because of the extra volume that’s going to have to come his way Swift’s not going to be able to do everything, but I don’t think Kerryon Johnson is a guy that I’m looking to draft on my team. Like, maybe I picked them up on the free agent wire. I don’t even know if I’m going handcuffed there. Like I think there’s other true handcuffs that are probably a bit better to have on your team than than a Kerryon Johnson’s. So if Swift gets dinged up and he’s deemed the guy, then yeah, you’re gonna fight for him on the waiver wire, you’re gonna spend some fab on him and get going. But on draft day, Kerryon Johnson is not a guy that I’m going to overly concern myself with.

Derek  13:13

And it’s tough. It’s tough to train to subscribe to this, the policy of I’m gonna handcuff a guy that I’m taking the third or fourth round, which is kind of where it sounds like you and I see, D’Andre Swift going. And yeah, that’s a guy that, you know, maybe is the last, you know, the very last pick in a draft as a flyer might kind of take him but even then, like that’s, I’d rather spend my flyer pick on somewhere else. So he’s a guy that I don’t necessarily see getting a ton of run room. And you’re right, he’s a guy that very much his rookie season, he looked good and right up until he got hurt. That sophomore season came out with a bang, it was looking really, really good. Until he got banged up again, and then you this past season, they really just seem to kind of move on from him. And I don’t know that they’re going to come back. So you’re looking at it though. The The interesting thing, to me it’ll play out is what happens with all of the, you know, if we’re going to say that Adrian Peterson isn’t back and we’re gonna talk about him in just a second. But if Adrian Peterson isn’t back, that’s vacating 156 rush attempts. There. I don’t know that you’re going to see every one of those rush attempts go towards a D’Andre Swift. So what do you what do you think that looks like as far as the breakdown goes? Because you just saw Kerryon Johnson come through with 56 rush attempts, and you’re talking about 150 plus vacated rushing attempts there. does Kerryon Johnson see more than 100 carries next year.

Kevin  14:49

I think that’s probably a pretty good over under like, I don’t see him with a whole lot more than that. I do think that I do think Swift is going to get the lion’s share that like he He has a lot of untapped potential because of how that coaching staff used him last year, I’m going to buy into what do Staley said, and they see him being able to grow into that three down back roll. That being said, he’s not gonna play every single snap. Like, even as a lead back, you’re probably only playing about 80% of the snaps, something like that give or take, depending on game flow. So I could see that right about 100. Because then you’re looking, I mean, at 100 touches, you’re you’re looking at 767 touches a game or carries a game. And I think that’s probably about right, you’re not gonna overly use him unless you’re pinned into it due to injury.

Derek  15:47

Yeah, and even if he’s getting that many touches, you’re probably talking about over the course of the season, him only getting somewhere around 350 to 400 yards, when it’s all said and done. And, you know, less than a handful of touchdowns. So I he’s a guy again, the further we go through this thought exercise, the less and less that I’m going to say, hey, let’s make sure that we’re drafting Kerryon Johnson that’s a guy that very much has become I think it would just solidified in my own mind there that he’s a waiver wire guy and, you know, break glass in case of you know, in case D’Andre Swift goes down. But short of that, I don’t know that I want him on any one of my rosters,

Kevin  16:25

there might be a better role for him on a different NFL roster. But as it stands, he’s on the lions here. This is the last year of his rookie deal. So I don’t see the lions looking to flip him necessarily just because he’s inexpensive. They don’t owe him anything after this year, and would not be financially savvy for a team that’s trying to rebuild to dump him and then bring in a expensive free agent.

Derek  16:48

Yeah, yeah, I agree with you. The only way that they’re going to move him is for draft picks. And I don’t think that they’re going to get much out of some draft picks for for Kerryon Johnson with what what we have seen over the first three years of his of his career here. So Adrian Peterson is still are still a Detroit line for now. I think we’re both subscribing to the fact that we’re not expecting to see him on the roster next year. But Adrian Peterson did finish as running back 37. Last year 156 carries 604 yards, seven touchdowns, 12 receptions on 18 targets for an additional 101 through the air. What are your thoughts on AP,

Kevin  17:29

I am sure that there will be some NFL team that is going to grab AP to help out a locker room at some point. I just don’t see it being the Detroit Lions. So hinting at a segment that we will have later I’m going to say new hire. But I honestly I couldn’t tell you where like I’m trying to think of a team that could kind of fit him in and go from there. Honestly, I could see him end up in Buffalo, like out of all places, right? Like he is. He could kind of be that consummate pro and let Singletary and Zack moss, maybe learn a little bit from him. use him to spell I mean, it’s terrible for fantasy because now you’re splitting it, you know, instead of two ways are really three ways with Josh Allen now you’re splitting it four ways. So it’d be a terrible fantasy situation. But for the team in general. I could see them wanting to bring him along get a guy that can really hammer in at the goal line who isn’t afraid of contact who seems to have a little bit better success breaking tackles, even at his age. So I could see that happening. But I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended up somewhere else on a one year deal just to help a team out

Derek  18:48

where he could very well end up I think he’s a new hire somewhere else as well. But you know, one of the places I keep kind of coming back to is I could very much see him down in Florida next year. wearing some red being a Buccaneer I don’t think that the I don’t know that the Bruce Arians is going to fully hand those reins over to rojo and I don’t think that they’re going to be able to bring back Leonard fournette off of what I would expect him to get paid. You know, folks really seeing the last half of the season and especially that you know, playoff Lennie so to speak. I don’t think that he’ll be back there on a price day that the Bucs are willing to pay. But Adrian Peterson coming in to be you know, a spell back and be able to to be that kind of change of pace from a you know, be the change up to arrojo that could they they I could see that happening.

Kevin  19:42

Yeah, that’s always a possibility. The one thing I’m gonna say about the Buccaneers I know we’re not covering them today. But the one thing I am going to say is we saw it here in Denver firsthand with Peyton Manning is don’t nullify the high end Hall of Fame quarterback discount that others players take to be near their presence. Right. We saw it moreso on the defensive end with the Broncos and Darian Stewart and Chris Harris and a keep to leave like these guys took discounts from what they would have been paid in an open free market to play with Peyton Manning. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see Leonard fournette do something similar. Because quite frankly, he’s got it pretty Cush down in Tampa, like he’s not asked to do everything. He can be very serviceable. They’re going to be winning football games. So the atmosphere is going to be a little bit looser, it’s not going to be so cumbersome like it is in Jacksonville when they were losing Even though fournette was playing really well, two years ago in Jacksonville. We’ll see how that shakes out here in in a few weeks when we get to the Buccaneers, but I’m not convinced that for nets gonna leave.

Derek  20:53

We will. We’ll see how that one comes to play already. Let’s go ahead and and move on over to the wide receiver room. And this is where the fun really kind of starts with Detroit because there’s a lot of question marks here. Kenny golladay. First up, and Kenny golladay had a very disappointing injury field season finished at the 100 and third wide receiver only saw 20 receptions, 32 targets 338 yards and two touchdowns. What are your thoughts on Kenny golladay?

Kevin  21:27

I think that Kenny golladay made a business decision at the end of the 2020 season. I think that Kenny golladay realized that this was not a place that he wanted to spend long term. And I think that at the end of the day, he realized lions weren’t going anywhere. And he just made a business decision that this isn’t the year for me. And instead of going out and risking further injury or putting up a potential dud, I’m going to take my chances. And I’m going to go into 2021 as a restricted free agent. Now that being said, as a restricted free agent, the Lions have the opportunity to match the price. But I don’t see the lions matching the price. I think golladay has done well enough that he’s going to demand wide receiver one type money remains to be seen where he’s going to end up. I haven’t heard a whole lot of early interest before the free agency period begins on what the Kenny golladay story is, but there there is no doubt going to be a market for him coming into. Let’s see, after the 2019 season he finished wide receiver six I believe I could be mistaken by that. But I believe it was wide receiver six. He does a very good job at high point in the football. He can run intermediate and deep routes with with ease he does. He seems to be kind of a he was a go to for Matt Stafford in the end zone. So we saw a lot of those targets because of his size and being able to go up and get that ball. So I expect golladay to have a good season. But again, it’s not going to be with Detroit. There will be some other suitor and he’s going to get paid.

Derek  23:18

Yeah, Kenny Golladay is a unrestricted free agent this this coming year. So I excuse me Thank you. He, I think you’re right. I don’t if he was restricted or unrestricted, I don’t think it mattered much. I don’t think he’s coming back. Other than the fact that maybe they would have tried to put a tender on him and then try and trade him something like that if they had a little bit more, more, more bargaining power in that in those negotiations. But you know, when he played last year, he was he was consistently a wide receiver to wasn’t a guy that really even performed up to his draft position, even on the games that he played, right like his ADP last year, he was taking this, he was the seventh wide receiver taken off the board taken right there at the turn in the second round with a 24 and a half ADP pick. And when you look at he played four games this year, and the four games as finishes were 23 1821 and 21. So you while he was a consistent wide receiver to didn’t even bring back the capital that you spent on him in those four games that he played. I think that that’s one that that may depending upon his landing spot that could either help him or hurt him significantly here. If he goes to a team that the quarterback likes to throw the ball down the field, they’ve got the ability to, you know, for him not to see double coverage not to see see a lot of these tight press type of coverage and the quarterbacks able to throw the ball down the field. I think that he’s going to have a top 12 type of finish, but it really depends on the landing spot for me. If If he’s on a team that, and with a quarterback that’s not really able or willing to push the ball down the field, because he’s a guy that you that’s where he typically makes us, hey, is those longer routes. And if he’s having to try and get catch shorter routes are not seeing the targets because of the fact that they’re not throwing the ball down the field. I think that’s gonna hurt him significantly on on what you’re going to see there. And And if that’s the case, you need to very much temper your expectations for Kenny golladay in 2021.

Kevin  25:30

Yeah. What do you think is potential landing spots for golladay? And I’m just spitballing here a little bit right. I could see the Patriots trying to make a run at him to have that true number one receiver,

Derek  25:43

does he go back to Patricia though?

Kevin  25:44

having a quarterback? And that’s the thing like that’s why I don’t know if that’s the landing spot for him. An interesting one is the Baltimore Ravens. Yeah, the Baltimore Ravens have have 18 million this year in cap space. So it’s not that they’d have to blow it all they can get, you know, creative with the contracts and do that type of thing. But it’s a team that desperately needs a true number one receiver, it needs a guy that can get out wide and high point the ball. You have Hollywood Brown is kind of that field stretcher. But outside of Hollywood Brown, you have Mark Andrews, who kind of goes in between the hatches and dominates the middle of the field. Gallaudet gives you that option for that intermediate route, who he will go inside and across the middle a little bit as his route combinations go but just something to get Lamar Jackson something else right like this is I’m not gonna say the the Ravens window is closing. But the Ravens window is seemingly getting tighter already. Because teams have have kind of figured out Lamar Jackson a little bit. And he’s got to be able to throw the ball. But if you’re going to ask God to drop back and throw the ball and and read defenses and do all that you have to get him a true number one and golladay would fit the bill for that.

Derek  27:08

You know, I agree with you that Lamar Jackson needs, needs another target there. Because Hollywood Brown is is a bit of an undersized receiver. He’s a burner and can take the top off of a defense. But the problem that has been is that you haven’t necessarily seen Lamar willing to throw the ball down the field and really push the ball down the field, really taken more of the dump offs and some of that kind of stuff and maybe adding a receiver of Kenny golladay caliber in there could drastically change that. But I think it’s one of those that it it does worry me a little bit of a landing spot there with Kenny golladay simply from the standpoint that the Ravens have very much decided they’re a run first team, and they’re going to run the ball more than anybody else in the NFL. It’s one of those that it it makes me wonder if you had a Kelly holiday there even with three three receiving options there and better receiving options than what they’ve had. Does that limit the upside and the ceiling for even more? So for Kenny golladay, Andrews and Hollywood Brown? I think the answer is yes. Just because the fact that ravens aren’t going to throw the ball more than four 400 to 450 times in a season. And Lamar Jackson hasn’t pushed the ball down the field. Like we’ve seen in other places when he does that, right? He’s looking for the quick hit routes. And typically if they’re not there, it’s off to the races.

Kevin  28:37

Yeah, here’s one more for you that I think you’re gonna like a little bit more. Okay. The LA chargers have $24 million in cap space. Okay. Mike Williams hasn’t really panned out. Keenan Allen has been very, very serviceable here over the last few years is starting to get just a little bit older. You are in that Prime window as far as having a young quarterback in his rookie contract. So this is the time that in most instances, Tom Brady Trumps all, you know data, but in most instance instances lately where you see teams make a run its quarterback on rookie deal that they can pay a lot of people around him before you have to pay said quarterback and then make adjustments elsewhere. What would you think about Kenny golladay going out to LA playing with the chargers and helping that team compete offensively with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Derek  29:38

I like that one a lot. It’s I believe hunter Henry is also a free agent. I don’t know that he’s going to be back back with the Chargers next year. So that’s one of those you now run it where you’re running a lot of a lot of 11 personnel. You’ve got a great receiving back out of the that you can run out of the backfield in Austin That could take a lot of those routes that a tight end would take anyways, a dump off check down type of pass. But the fact that you’re able to shoot, you could even scoop Keenan Allen into a slot there with his just amazing route ability and the fact and it’s in his hands. Oh my gosh, you, you then have both Mike Williams and Kenny golladay outside and on a quarterback that loves to push the ball down the field like that, that one. That could be some interesting things there that charges defense should also get get healthy over the offseason. And that could be that could make some very interesting AFC West showdowns and prospects there. I like the landing spot there more. So I don’t know that we’ll see it happen. But yeah, out of out of those two you mentioned I definitely like that landing spot the best.

Kevin  30:52

I just think it’d be interesting, right? You see what the Chiefs have done and and the Broncos have tried to do something similar ish, right? They have no fans. So you have a young, dynamic tight end. You had courtland Sutton or still have him he just was coming off an injury. You drafted Jerry Judy, then you had the emergence of kj hamler. And, and Tim Patrick continues to kind of do his thing. So the Broncos have their nice little receiving Corps, but they’re not so sure about the quarterback position. The Chargers have done a lot on the defensive side of the ball. They have Joey bosa. They they brought in lynnville. Joseph, Casey Hayward, Chris Harris, on top of Derwin James, who they drafted a couple years ago to play safety. And they haven’t done as much on the offensive side of the ball. eckler is on a really team friendly deal. And now that that defense is built up, you now you have the ability to do that. And I think, again, who knows if it’ll get done, but I do think it would be pretty dynamic to see golladay and Keenan Allen, line up opposite of each other. And let Justin Herbert just pick his poison. Okay, here, here’s, here’s what we’re gonna do. And let’s see where the safeties rolling over to. Okay, we’re just gonna go the other guy this time, and just watch him Have some fun. I think not being a chargers fan by any stretch, I do think it would be entertaining football to watch them offensively. The Washington football team has 38 point 8 million, that’s another likely thing because they don’t have any true wide receiver like I could see them dump a bunch of money to get that true number one and let them whether it’s Alex Smith, or pinoke do their thing and have a guy that can truly create separation and help drive the ball down the field for him to go with Terry Maclaurin

Derek  32:50

lots of interesting prospects there and wants to see how this thing starts to pan out during the offseason, how some of these free agents go. But Kenny golladay is one that you know, like you said if if he goes to a team that the quarterbacks pushes the ball down the field, that’ll be a lot of fun to watch and a lot of very interesting things to see there. Marvin Jones Jr, who is also a free agent. By the way the the Detroit Lions have a very, very interesting, wide receiver room when it comes to the free agency market. Right now the Detroit Lions have five players that are currently on the roster in the wide receiver room that are all unrestricted free agents. Marvin Jones Jr. is an unrestricted free agent Danny Amendola, Mohamed Sanu, Kenny golladay and Jamal Agnew are all free agents. Coming up some interesting things I think you’re going to happen in this wide receiver room this year, but Marvin Jones Jr. Let’s go ahead and talk about him. wide receivers 17 last year, 76 receptions 115 targets 978 yards on nine touchdowns through the air. What are your thoughts on Marvin Jones Jr.

Kevin  34:06

He is quietly just a serviceable wide receiver. Like he just always seems to get his share. He’s never going to be that true. Number one. He didn’t do it when he was with Cincinnati. Mainly because he was playing behind AJ green in his prime. And then he was playing alongside Kenny golladay is he was kind of an up and coming rookie into a really good number one receiver so Jones will definitely find a home somewhere. He’s not going to demand that number one wide receiver type money, but he is a he’s a wide receiver who he runs a very good deep route and he’s not a burner, right like he’s not going to blow past you. But he does find ways to get behind the defense. He also he doesn’t complain he will run the short and intermediate routes, he will go over the middle, he’s fun, he’s really good about getting his feet down on the sideline, he’s got really good hands, he doesn’t drop a lot of passes. And he’s very efficient in the redzone. Like, all these things add up to a guy that we should all probably be talking about a little bit more than what we do. He’s just not the sexy wide receiver. But he, he’s the consummate Pro, he grabs his hard hat in his lunch pail, and he goes to work weekend and week out. And he always falls deeper in a draft and he should, and he’s, he’s a good asset to have, I’m not saying that you’re going to bank your fantasy season on him. But he’s a very good asset to have doesn’t have a big injury history, you know, doesn’t get into trouble off the field. So he’s a guy who you typically can pick up in the ninth ish round. And really finishing as a as a wide receiver to write like, holy crap. So there’s tons of value there. When when getting a Marvin Jones, he is more likely to be back in Detroit, I do see them trying to keep him because they’ll be able to do it at a lesser price tag. So if that’s the case, I see Marvin Jones being kind of like the Robert woods, ish of the lions. And I get it that it’s a different offensive scheme. It’s not McVeigh calling the plays anymore, or anything like that. But I could see Marvin Jones kind of really stepping up and then and finishing probably the back end the wide receiver to again, very sneakily, you’ll draft him as your fourth wide receiver, something like that. And he will constantly have relevance, even though he’s not the sexy play.

Derek  36:47

I mean, last year, he was wide receiver 36, taken off the board, and ADP of 93 and a half. So definitely guy that you’re getting to later on, that really can just be a great depth piece for you. And a guy that, you know, not a lot of folks target him and reject because he’s very inconsistent. He’s a guy, he’s very much a boom, blah, boom or bust type of player. When you look at it, he’ll have weeks where he’ll be the second or the third or fourth overall wide receiver and followed up the next week with wide receiver 56 on the week to follow it back up with wide receiver four on the week. So he’s very inconsistent when you go through it. He’s a guy that I love looking at for best ball formats, though.

Kevin  37:28

Yeah, absolutely. Best balls are great format for him, I think. I think part of his inconsistency was due to how teams were playing the lions, right? So to start out, they would focus more on him than golladay, then golladay was kind of emerging as the guy, then they switch coverage over Marvin Jones burns them for a couple of weeks in a row. Then they watch this film study, they switch back over like and that’s why it’s such a great complimentary piece is because he’s not a true number one, but he’s a very good wide receiver too, that demands his own respectful coverage. You can’t just forget about him or he will torch you.

Derek  38:10

So Danny Amendola and Mohamed Sanu are both on the roster. do either one of those guys hold any fantasy relevance for you next year?

Kevin  38:18

No, I’m going to be looking in other places, both of them, while M and Dola. serves his purpose because he’s in the slot right? He’s going to see some of those targets and and do that type of thing. I think I’d rather go with a guy with a higher ceiling, then then go with Damien and dolla, probably a team where I’m a little bit more confident in the quarterback in being able to feed a slot receiver than than Jared Goff is. So it’s nothing against him and Dola in what he can do, but I’m not so sure what this lions offensive scheme is going to look like. And I’m not so sure that Jared Goff is going to be able to feed and mendola enough to make it worthwhile as opposed to drafting a younger guy anywhere. Right and and just play the boomer bus card with them.

Derek  39:12

Yeah, and he’s an unrestricted both him and Mohammed’s newer, unrestricted free agents next year. So be interesting to see if they’re back in Detroit. Both of them should have team friendly deals if they do bring him back. They do have the rookie they drafted quintessa Sisyphus any thoughts on really seemingly the only guy under contract for next year on Detroit?

Kevin  39:34

know he had a couple small flashes, but that’s about it. really seem to struggle to get a grasp of the NFL, so I’m gonna let someone else take the chance on him. And I’m okay with that. Yeah, mainly because I think the lions in the draft. I think they are going to go wide receiver in the first round. I think they’re going to be going after a I’m guessing it’s probably gonna be Mr. Chase at LSU to get him in house to kind of have that true. Number one receiver. Yes. He didn’t play last year, which is, I guess interesting in its own right. But he’s still arguably the best receiver in the class even more so than what you were getting out of devonta. Smith out of Alabama.

Derek  40:20

Yeah, I would agree with you. I think that they’ve got a lot that they need to address. And with all of their wide receiver room, seemingly as an unrestricted free agent, I think you’re right. I think they’ll do some addressing of that in the draft and definitely in the offseason. So let’s go ahead and move on over to the tight end room. And TJ hawkinson. Finished as tied in number four last year. 67 receptions, 101 targets 723 yards to the air six touchdowns. What are your thoughts on TJ hawkinson?

Kevin  40:50

I like hawkinson a lot. I think that Jared Goff. Well, 2020 didn’t show it as much 2019 show that he can feed the tight end, the way that higbee and Everett before ever got hurt. But the way higbee finished down the stretch in 2019, we all had a really, really high aspirations for how he was going to be used in 2020. McVeigh didn’t quite do that. But I think that was more the offensive scheme than higbee himself. Again, going back to my comment earlier, deplete of past catchers. So the ones that you do have you need to utilize. And hawkinson presents a very good mismatch, especially in a division that doesn’t necessarily cover the tight end. Well, the Packers, that’s kind of their one big weakness in the passing game is covering the tight end, the bears, that was their weakness all season long. And the Vikings are kind of always up and down with with their defense in tight end coverage. So I like hawkinson he’s definitely in that. That second tier, right? Like you have your Kelsey, maybe the third tier, right? Because you kind of Kelsey number one clearly. And then you kind of have kittel Darren Waller, if you will. And then there’s Mark Andrews, TJ hawkinson, and, and so on, and so forth. So he’s a very good tight end option. I like him a lot this season, I think he’s going to be the most dependable pass catcher the Lions have. So it’s just a matter of if you want to pay that draft capital to get a TJ hawkinson or not,

Derek  42:34

right. And last year, he had a very, very favorable ADP, right? ADP of 139 and a half. So he was at a late round kind of guy was typically the 15th tight end taken off the board. So you were able to get a ton of value and a ton of return on that. I don’t see that being the case this year, I think that you’re gonna see him drafted is probably, you’re right there, I think you’ll see him probably taken in that third run of tight ends, right, like you’re gonna see Kelsey go, you’ll see kittel and Waller go maybe about a round later. And then you’ll see the Andrews and hawkinson. And a lot of these other tight ends kind of make their run in that second, or that third run when it when it happens. So it’s kind of funny when you sit there and think about the fact that you’re drafting Travis Kelsey, and you’re almost thinking that’s a run on tight end, because it’s that he’s that far above and beyond everybody else at the position. But I know what it is,

Kevin  43:28

though. Because if you want to pay up for tight end, that that’s kind of that benchmark. Like if you’re not getting one of those top five guys, it’s really not worth it. Like at all. And quite frankly, there’s a really good case to be had that if you’re not paying up for Kelsey, it’s not worth it at all. So everybody’s going to do what they feel like they need to how the board falls, how they want to construct their teams. I for years have been a proponent of Wait, wait, wait on tight end. Live. I’m since kind of changing that for 2021 drafts. And if you can get Kelsey, you take Kelsey, and if not, then you wait, wait, wait on tight end. But, you know, if I can get hawkinson in the seventh or eighth round, I might take a flyer on that at that point, right? Like you know, you’re he’s a guy that you’re going to be able to start week in and week out, he’s going to see, you know, 678 targets a week. And he’s going to be used in the redzone. So there’s a lot worse decisions that you could make. Even though it is weird for me to just pump up a titan and that’s so against my character that it does feel weird. I got to keep talking myself into it.

Derek  44:47

I don’t I don’t know that he’s going to be around in the seventh or eighth round for that to happen for you. I think that you’ll probably see him go off the board and about the fourth or fifth. And so he’s a guy that I probably will not be spending up on Like he’s like you just laid out very, very well I, if Kelsey is not around in that, but that second round where I’d be looking at draft him, and I doubt that he makes it makes it very far into that second round with what we saw this last year. That’s it. That’s a position that I will simply wait on and pick up a guy in the 12th 13th round and just be done with it at that point. So Jared Goff, newly acquired Jared Goff, coming over from the Rams, finishes quarterback 18 on the year 370, completions, 552 attempts. 3952 yards, 20 passing touchdowns. 13 interceptions. He did have an additional four rushing touchdowns. What are your thoughts on Jared Goff? Jared Goff, Jared? Griff.

Kevin  45:50

Yeah, I yeah, I don’t love. I don’t like I I liked him enough with the Rams because I knew what weapons he had around him to be relevant. And he had guys that could help cover up his mistakes between woods and cup and higbee. What was Gurley turned into cam Akers or Henderson? Right? Like there was a ton of guys around him. And you kind of trusted what McVeigh could do calling a game to kind of Polish a turd, if you will. But I’m not. I just I don’t know that. I like it. I don’t like him in the outdoors. I don’t like him going up to Green Bay. I don’t like him going over to Chicago and playing games outside there. I don’t like the fact that outside of hawkinson and D’Andre Swift, you have no freaking idea who’s actually gonna be throwing the ball to. So he is a quarterback that I am. I’m happy to punt on, I think that he’s probably going to end up as quarterback 2122 on the year, I just don’t see him having any better of a season than what he just had, especially since you don’t know what his arsenal around him is. And once you get into late fall, and these Winter Games, I don’t think he’s gonna be able to do squat. Like we’ve already seen him get shut down by the bears a couple different times. The bears have Jared Goff playbook. And I don’t think that matters that it’s McVeigh or not McVeigh, I think they just understand already how to handle Jared Goff and he’s the guy I’m just not going to partake in. There’s just too many other options. I’d rather get in on the back back end. as scary as that sounds. I’d rather get it on the back end of a QB run a tear ahead of Jared Goff then have to worry about settling for him and just hoping for the best.

Derek  47:44

Yeah, I’m not gonna lie, looking at how I would expect this to shake out. Jared Goff now brings the same kind of sediment to mind that we had around Sam Donald going into this year, right when it comes into some of the, the the quarterback, you know, where we’re necessarily I think he’s gonna finish. He’s a guy that does not have any weapons right now. I don’t think that those weapons are going to get much better. I don’t know that you’re going to see a lot happen with a with a game script and a offensive scheme that’s going to be able to cover up the deficiencies of Jared Goff like we’ve seen him, you know, like we’ve seen like they do for him with the Rams for for many years. So the fact that I don’t think you’re gonna see Detroit be able to establish a run game, they’re not going to have the, and they’re going to have a negative game script to play out of a lot. It Jared Goff is a quarterback that I think allows Detroit to pick up very high draft picks for the remainder of that contract, and be able to try and do a full rebuild here. But no, he’s not a guy that I’m looking to, to draft and if it’s sitting down there, and I’m going to make sure especially like a super late super flex format. I’m going to make sure that I’ve got if I’ve got an add Jared Goff on there. I’m making sure I’m adding him as my third or fourth quarterback onto the roster. He’s not a guy that I’m going to put much faith into do anything other than a spot start for me.

Kevin  49:15

I degree. Mitch trubisky Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, if he lands somewhere like all these guys, I think are better options. Hell, I I’d rather have you know, we’re going back to this conversation. Last week, I’d rather have drew Locke and we got into a drew lock over Carson Wentz. And I’ll still stand behind those numbers. Drew lock is a better quarterback than Carson Wentz is right now. I don’t give a damn what Wentz did three years ago. And that’s scary because a lot of people don’t like to lock and I’d still take him over Jared golf because I know what the weapons are like and at least have some form of realistic expectation of what is going to happen with with golf. There’s no freaking idea like Teddy Bridgewater. Would you take Britain Whatever Jared Goff right now knowing what you have in roster constructions. Ah, man, that is tough. But that we’re looking at.

Derek  50:09

Yeah, well, Jones, I would take Daniel Jones. I would take Danny Jones on that one.

Kevin  50:14

Insert Washington football team quarterback.

Derek  50:18

Honestly, I’d probably take that. And that’s that’s tough there too. I do not go Jared Goff over Tua.

Kevin  50:28

Okay, fair enough. So that’s where we switch on our floor. Yeah. Right. And then it’s just kind of and that’s all I’m just trying to establish, right. All these guys. If there’s a lot of quarterbacks to be taken, especially in the super flex league like Yeah, but that that formats, different anyway, right. Like quarterbacks you have to bump up basically two rounds to full rounds easily on your draft assessment to get the guy you want in a super flex.

Derek  50:51

Yeah, do not only one of those guys. Yep, super flex Do not wait on those quarterbacks have learned that the hard way more than once, but when it comes down to it, unless unless the dolphins are gonna really open it up and let him run and let him for fantasy, if he’s if he’s running and has that running ability and the dolphins open that up and allow him to really just kind of let loose on the running game. Then he sneaks way up there for me. But if 2021 is gonna be a repeat of what we saw in 2022. That’s a guy that I’ll just let sit there and that Jared Goff was very attractive on that one.

Kevin  51:28

Fair enough. I just and the more we go through it, the more we think about it. There’s probably 25 quarterbacks that I like better than Jared Goff. I know I said 21 or 22. And he might finish there, but on draft day, there’s probably going to be 25 quarterbacks that I have. slotted above Jared Goff.

Derek  51:46

Jared Goff or Derek Carr, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Sam Donald. I’m gonna,

Kevin  51:56

I’m gonna say Jared Goff because I know he’s a starter.

Derek  51:59

Right. But I mean, if I

Kevin  52:00

had to draft today, right, I know Jared Goff is going to start I don’t know that about Darnold.

Derek  52:06

Right. And that’s kind of where we’re at. There’s just the fact that we’re so much in the there’s maybe I don’t even know that there’s a handful of guys that I would take Jared Goff over when it comes to starting quarterbacks, for me, he’s probably down there 2627 28, somewhere in that range, as far as where I’m seeing him for next year. Now, that may change when if the lions go out and spend up on wide receivers and then make some good draft picks. And there’s still some things that can be said there, but I don’t necessarily see them, providing him the weapons for him to be successful. And even when he had great weapons such as Robert woods and Cooper cup, and whether it was Gerald Ebert or higbee and girly and, you know, Cam Akers he had a ton of weapons there. And we still saw middling fantasy, fantasy quarterback production, guys. I do think that that’s going to wrap up yet another episode of the good old boys fantasy football podcast, make sure that you are hopping on to that website. good old boys fff.com. Sign up for the newsletter. Like we said, we’ve got a lot of content that we’re going to start bringing your way more so than just the podcast. We’ve got lots of projections coming out. We’ve got a lot of the draft coverage coming up. Player profiles coming up. Lots of things to get you guys ready for the 2021 season to help you win cash and trophies for Kevin. I’m Derek and hopefully we’ll have Alex back next week. Have a good one. Be safe.