70. Atlanta Falcons and Conference Championship Player Stack…
Thu, 1/21 2:50PM • 49:19
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
julio, quarterback, julio jones, wide receiver, draft, falcons, running, bit, matt ryan, offense, year, calvin ridley, hayden, alex, yards, todd gurley, touchdowns, targets, tight, season
SPEAKERS
Alex, Derek, Kevin
Intro 00:05
You’re listening to the good old boys fantasy football podcast. Now here’s your host, Kevin, Derek and Alex.
Derek 00:13
Alrighty, Welcome in ladies and gentlemen to another episode of the good old boys fantasy football Podcast. I am Derek and I’m joined by your co host, Kevin and Alex. Guys, we do have a great show for you. We’re gonna end up breaking down the Atlanta Falcons for our team of the week, put a little twist on this on the stack game that we’ve been playing. And it’ll be a lot of fun when we get there. Well guys, let’s, we’ve got a team of the week to break down. And it is the Atlanta Falcons and some interesting pieces here that that you have already mentioned. But let’s go ahead and start where we always do and that’s what the running backs, Todd Gurley. Last year, was newly acquired from the Rams over to the Falcons. He finishes running back 25 on the year 195. carries 678 yards, nine rushing touchdowns, 25 receptions, 34 targets with an additional 164 yards to the air, but only about three and a half yards per rush attempt. So guys your thoughts around Todd Gurley.
Kevin 01:15
He started out very, very quickly found the end zone quite a bit the first half of the season. And then as the season wore on, he wore down which is such a shame. I am a Todd Gurley apologist I I’ve loved him since coming out of high school and going to my Georgia Bulldogs. So I have a deep rooted love for Todd Gurley. I have a signed jersey from from Todd Gurley and his Georgia days. But he’s just not the same guy. He is someone who fell into a backup role towards the end of the season. I fully suspect that the Falcons were either going to bring another free agent in or draft a rookie in the upcoming draft to kind of help out with some of that at the moment. They have Brian Hill. He’s okay. But he’s not the answer. So I’m not drafting Todd Gurley in 2021. As much as that pains me, there’s there’s too much of a question. It’s not worth trying to decide when the right time to flip them is to get the most bang for your buck. You know, he’s gonna traditionally you know, he’s going to start out strong because he’s healthy. He’s been rehabbing. All offseason, his knee looks good. And then he’s gonna drop off at the back half. I don’t want to have to time that. So ultimately he’s going to be he’s probably going to be a flex play is probably where he’ll end up. He still has a nose for the endzone if he plays, that he is the guy that I am going to fade fade fade.
Alex 02:54
So I think there’s going to be a lot of people who are going to fall into this trap this year and the trap is Arthur Smith was able to make Derrick Henry the 2000 yard rusher. Arthur Smith was able to feature Derrick Henry in an offense. And I think people are going to fall into the trap of well, if he could do it in Tennessee. He’s going to be able to do it in Atlanta. What people fail to realize is that Derrick Henry is a massive human being and while Todd Gurley very good. He’s not Derrick Henry. And I think that there’s still more work to be done there in Atlanta to get to where you can have a 2000 yard rusher then of what they were able to build in Tennessee. That being said, I still think that Todd Gurley has some value. It is fading, and it’s fading rather quickly his running backs do in the NFL, with the exception of Frank Gore. But I I am with you, Kevin, I think that for fantasy purposes next year, Todd girlies is going to be a guy that if you hit your wagon to there’s going to be a lot of Advil and ibuprofen. Going into it because it’s just you’re not sure what you’re going to get out of that offense in year one under Arthur Smith. It’s gonna be tough. He’s not a sure thing anymore.
Derek 04:19
No. And when you look at it, there’s nine rushing touchdowns, which really was what made him fantasy relevant. All came in the first nine games of the of the year. Right? That back half, you already said that he faded hard to the point where like, wasn’t necessarily even breaking the top 40 in the back half of the season. So it was really tough to watch that kind of go through and even to your point as well, even if you drafted him to try and flip them which I had done in a couple of leagues. I was trying to start moving, trying to start move him after week five in most of those leagues where he had just come off of you know, running back 12 finish running back three finish. So he was Very well and was ranked very well on the season and it was, it was next to impossible feat to get the value out of out of that back. So no is the guy I’m staying away from I don’t even know that if you sit in there, you’re gonna be looking at him as a fifth running back on the roster, I don’t even know that I’m gonna pull the trigger there. He’s a guy that I’ll kind of leave out there as a landmine for somebody else to to put that on their roster and they can they can deal with that one.
Kevin 05:28
Yeah, I agree. I think I’d rather I think I’d rather look at someone like Zack moss, expecting him to kind of take that second year leap and and do some things in buffaloes, he gets more custom with the offense. Melvin Gordon. I mean, even kind of figure out what the what the Jets are doing it running back, right? I think because of saleae. Going to the Jets, I’m gonna keep an eye on who they’re drafting or who they’re bringing in or just who they’re keeping around, whether it’s Ty Johnson or P Ryan, and kind of see what the Jets are doing. Because I think all those are, are a little bit more viable options. They’re all younger running backs, they don’t quite have the injury history. And there’s someone that if you’re going to draft one late you might as well take a younger guy who’s going to get some opportunity as opposed to one of the older backs that’s in the board on that timeframe and and just hope he hits a couple weeks when you need him to.
Derek 06:24
So Brian Hill, also in that running back room as well finished running back 52 last year, 100 rushing attempts, 465 yards, one rushing touchdown, 25 receptions on 30 targets for an additional 199 yards and one rushing touchdown did average about four 4.7 yards per carry, though last year. Your thoughts around Brian Hill,
Kevin 06:47
I think he showed flashes. I don’t know that he showed enough flashes to you know, make me think oh my goodness, this is the guy for next year in Atlanta. Like I said earlier, I think that the Falcons are going to look at bringing another body in to compete in camp and whether that’s a draft pick or a free agent. We will we will see how they decide to kind of run that through. But he’s another guy he has flex appeal. He’s a bit younger, he’s not as injury prone. He catches the ball decently out of the backfield. So I will glance his way. But he’s not a guy that I’m searching after. He’s not a guy that I’m targeting, specifically, in the middle to late rounds. I’m really going to have to see kind of how the board falls, where my positions of need are, and then really evaluate if I’m going to take a gamble on him or if I’m going to look somewhere else and possibly address a different position of need at that point
Derek 07:44
real quick. Brian Hill or Darrell Henderson.
Kevin 07:49
Darrell Henderson,
Derek 07:50
okay. I just know your love for Darrell Henderson. So you kind of throw
Kevin 07:54
Yeah, yeah, I think Darrell Henderson still gonna be a factor. I don’t think Malcolm Brown is gonna see nearly as much I think that Cam Akers should be the bell callback. But we’ve we’ve heard Sean McVay coming into the 2019 excuse me the 2020 season, saying he wasn’t going to do the bell callback thing anymore. Injuries kind of dictated that he had to this season in spurts. It was Henderson at the beginning of the year. And then when cam Akers finally got healthy, it was the kingmaker show but I will take a guy coming into his third year with some pop. You never know what’s going to happen in an offense that likes to run the football as opposed to a past heavy offense with a new coach a new scheme and hoping you know this running back who’s man Okay, might get enough opportunities to be relevant.
Derek 08:48
One more for you, Brian Hill or Tony Pollard?
Kevin 08:51
Tony Pollard
Alex 08:52
Yeah, probably Pollard just because there’s a little bit more opportunity. I think,
Kevin 08:59
Same thing with Alexander Madison, I take him over Brian Hill to Yeah, both of them are backups behind. Very good Pro Bowl type running backs. But I just I trust those offensive systems a bit more. Now the Vikings might be changing, there’s we’ll have to kind of see who steps up into some of those positions for the Vikings. But ultimately, Kubiak set the foundation, that team is going to run the ball very, very well with the offensive line that they have in place. Again, young guy offensive scheme, how the offensive line is set up all these things will go into into play and I’d rather take those backups and have youth on my side in a offense that can run the ball and knows how to feature a running back as opposed to a past heavy offense historically, coming into a new system that we don’t know how it’s gonna, how it’s gonna look, because Atlanta’s offensive line is not built to run the football. So for them to mimic what the Tennessee Titans did in year one is unrealistic, like to Alex’s point, that’s not going to happen. So is that a transition year? Or does he kind of changed some of his offensive philosophy, and he focuses on the offensive line to just get Matt Ryan more time so he can continue to push the ball down the field a whole lot of unanswered or unanswered questions for me. So I will be fading Brian Hill quite a bit as well
Derek 10:30
alrighty. So that’ll move us on over into the wide receiver room. And we’ll go ahead and start with Calvin Ridley, who finished wide receiver for last year, 90 receptions, 143 targets 1374 yards, nine receiving touchdowns. Guys, your thoughts around Calvin Ridley.
Alex 10:52
So I, as we have done these team breakdowns last year and going into this year, I will always preface this with a receiver is only as good as the quarterback throwing to him a rule of life in in the NFL. And while Calvin Ridley is very good. This might be the last hurrah for Matt Ryan. And I’m with the some of the draft things that I have read that Falcons at number four, probably going to target one of the quarterbacks that will be available, whether that’s the kid out of BYU, if Justin fields falls that far, or if they go Trey Lance from North Dakota State. How trendy is it to have an offensive minded coach with the quarterback that he wants? We’ve seen that kind of develop and that’s kind of become the trend in the NFL. So you get the offensive minded coach. And now he goes and gets his quarterback. It’s kind of like the ad in the in the football coach in the college world, you know. So I think that we could see the Falcons go quarterback, and that could have a hindrance on what Calvin Ridley is able to do this next year. That being said, if there’s offseason workouts and everything goes the way that we think it will, which I’m starting to think less and less, that’s likely, since they’ve canceled the combiner that combines going to look completely different. I don’t see Calvin Ridley finishing as wide receiver for but he could still very easily be a wide receiver one just because he’s that talented. But a young quarterback. It’s going to be tough to to have big games out of receivers with a young quarterback especially early on.
Kevin 12:49
So So Matt, Ryan’s only 35 he’s been in the league for ever. It seems like right? Yeah, but he’s only 35 years old. So it’s possible. There have been rumors floating around. Arthur blank said that Julio and Matt Ryan aren’t off the table for things to move in the offseason. But I do expect Matt Ryan to be back. Maybe not as much Julio Jones. But I do think Matt Ryan will be back and because of that him and Ridley do have a rapport. And I fully expect Ridley to end up in the top seven of wide receivers. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s top five. But I fully expect him to be inside the top seven. That offense, as currently constructed as a more passing centric offense leads to too many opportunities. And even with a change of that Calvin Ridley is the more explosive more consistent wide receiver on the Atlanta Falcons team right now. I think Matt Ryan realizes that and is going to continue to feed the young gun whether it’s a run first offense, more balanced type of attack or a passing heavy offense. I don’t know that it matters. I do think really has emerged as the guy in Atlanta now as Julio kind of fades into the sunset here a little bit so Ridley’s probably going to be in redraft leagues. Ridley probably is my fifth receiver off the board roughly. I do expect big things out of him. I think his numbers will be roughly the same about 1300 yards, seven or eight touchdowns. And you can see very consistent type numbers coming from Calvin Ridley as we saw for most of the 2020 season,
Derek 14:39
it’ll be interesting to see how that one comes out. I do feel pretty good about the call made before the season where had Calvin Ridley finishing as my wide receiver nine on the year ended up finishing wide receiver for so finished a little bit better than expected there. But I I could very easily see him continuing a lot of what we’ve seen this year. He’s got roughly 24% of the target share from this last year. And I think you started to see it where he is the number one guy down there. I don’t know that, you know, you’ll necessarily see Julio back this coming year, you’re already starting to see a lot of those kind of age is over 30 years old, and those soft tissue started kind of catching up with him this past year. I’m, I’m kind of with you, Kevin, I think probably, you’re probably wide receiver, maybe six, seven off the board, but definitely in the top there. So let’s go ahead and move on to their other wide receiver, Julio Jones, who finished as wide receiver 53. This past year, 51, receptions, 68 targets, 771 yards, three touchdowns. Guys, your thoughts around Julio Jones,
Kevin 15:54
I am going to tread very cautiously with Julio Jones this season. He has had a history of being banged up throughout the season, he’s played through a ton of injuries. But father time is undefeated. Right? We hear this a lot. And Julio Jones is a prime example of that. He still demands attention on the field. So when he is there, it leads to more opportunities for a Calvin Ridley, or Hayden Hurst and the other member of the passing game for Atlanta. But for fantasy football purposes, I think he’s kind of relegated to a flex option for me like I am, I’m going to look in other options for consistency. And, and a high floor for my wide receiver one. So So Julio is out because of his injury history, it takes that floor out his ceilings there, but the floors Not anymore. And then my wide receiver too. I mean, you’re competing with guys like Keenan Allen, or even a courtland Sutton, a DJ more. Some of these guys who are not who just haven’t had the injury history, they see the volume that’s comparable to what Julio Jones would get. But they’ve been a little bit more reliable, as far as suiting up for the game. So it’s just, it’s sliding Julio back, I think people are going to overdraft him based off of his name. So I think Julio still gonna go in that fourth or fifth sixth round. And honestly, guys, I don’t know that I’m touching Julio until, like the ninth or 10th round, which is crazy to say, but how I envision the 2021 draft board kind of going. He’s a nice piece, but he is not going to be a focal point of my fantasy team. Like he would have been in years past.
Alex 17:52
Yeah, I’m with you there. I think that that he will be one of those guys that people will be disappointed in because they will overdrafted him not knowing what he is. But evaluating him is what he was. So I think that’s that’s where people are going to be frustrated with him. I’m with you, Kevin, I don’t I’m not gonna bank on him as a even as a wide receiver to option mate and deeply wide receiver three flex. And even then, you know, might be something that if you get them on your roster might look at flipping him.
Derek 18:33
Yeah, that’s probably some pretty, pretty solid advice there. A question for you guys, though. Would you rather have Jamison Crowder or Julio Jones on your fantasy roster next year?
Kevin 18:43
Who’s the quarterback for the Jets?
Derek 18:46
Keep it as is
Kevin 18:48
Julio,
Alex 18:48
Julio.
Derek 18:50
I don’t I don’t know that if things stand as is, I think they’re both gonna have about a similar finish. And the reason I bring that name up is because that was one we spent a bit of time on last week when we’re breaking down the Jets. And really kind of going through that where you know, we were naming 30 receivers easily that would have we would have put ahead of Jamison Crowder. So the question I have is if we kind of relegated Julio Jones into that same type of territory.
Alex 19:16
But that’s not that’s not that’s an indictment on the jets and Crowder. That’s not because of Julio that’s that’s because that option is so much worse than than the other option and that’s not because Julio is so much better. It’s just because that option is so much worse if you understand what I’m saying there.
Kevin 19:35
I’m gonna short answer your question, Derek. I’m gonna say yes, Julio Jones had been relegated to this same bracket to the same player pool level as as word Jameson Crowder would be Yeah, there’s 30 plus possibly guys that I will put on my draft board ahead of Julio Jones for redraft leagues,
Derek 19:59
because that’s That’s just kind of you guys are going through that. And I’m kind of having that same thought process that going through it, where we’re talking about putting them as a flex player, putting them as a deep, you know, wide receiver three and deep leagues. Yeah, that’s kind of where my mind keeps coming back to when we’re talking on that one. And so I’m thinking I’m kind of right there with you where I don’t know that you’re going to, I think you’re gonna see Julio Jones with a wide receiver three type of finish six next year. And as painful as that, that is to say, with the talent that’s there and the career that he’s had, I think that’s about where you’re gonna probably see him finishes, you know, in that probably, maybe eight to 900 yards type of receiving work. And he hasn’t been a big touchdown score throughout his career. Matt Ryan has to look other directions when they get in the red zone. So yeah, I probably seen with eight to 900 yards and four, maybe five touchdowns.
Kevin 20:53
Yeah. Julio Jones or Christian Kirk,
Derek 20:56
I’m gonna take Christian Kirk.
Alex 20:57
I think Kirk probably just a little bit though. That feels kind of lateral to me.
Derek 21:04
The reason I say that is because I think you’re gonna have a Larry Fitzgerald not be there next year. So I think Kirk actually becomes more involved in that in that offense.
Kevin 21:14
Yeah. And I think, Alex, you’re right on. And that’s and that’s why I toss those out, as I kind of see those guys again, with Crowder in that same tier of wide receiver because you’re real quick. We’re going through that. And this is why we’re saying 30 guys plus, Seattle has two guys that you draft above Julio and Lockett and DK, the niners have two guys that you draft above Julio in Deebo. And Aiyuk, the Rams have two guys that you draft above Julio in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. So they’re six and I’m in one division.
Derek 21:48
And DeAndre Hopkins, keep it in the same division. That’s number seven. Easy.
Kevin 21:52
Yes. And then maybe Christian Kirk, but it’s borderline so we’re not going there. But then you go into, you know, Dallas. Well, Amari Cooper, Ceedee, Lamb, and Michael Gallup. All those guys, I think you could argue, maybe Michael Gallup kind of falls into that same teir because he’s the Forgotten man in Dallas. But Ceedee Lamb, Amari Cooper, for sure, are getting taken before Julio Jones. With the Washington football team. You have Terry Maclaurin,
Derek 22:23
the same division is what Julio is in where you look at Tampa Bay, you easily have two guys there. In both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, who we just talked about, there’s there’s a third, you go over to the saints, Michael Thomas is a fourth you go over to the Panthers. And you probably taken both Robbie Anderson and DJ Moore over over that as well. So even in that same division, he’s probably relegated into that. What that eight ninth, eighth ninth guy type of thing out of that division by itself?
Kevin 22:57
No, absolutely. And so I guess just for the listeners to kind of see, you know, just to throw that out, if you’re not thinking about that, oh, that’s ludicrous. How can you say that? That’s why guys like it took, what 15 seconds. And we just rattled off 15 players that we would take above Julio Jones in a redraft league in two and a half divisions, and we didn’t even touch the AFC side. And we didn’t get into the davante Adams, the tyreke Hills, you know, all these other players. So that’s why we’re saying that it’s, it’s a buyer beware, like Alex said, and Julio, at the moment, is is trending down faster than he’s trending up.
Derek 23:36
But if I can put them on a piece of a fourth wide receiver, I don’t know that I’m gonna hesitate too much there to do that either.
Kevin 23:42
Oh, absolutely. He has the right value. He has a right value that can be an asset to your fantasy team. I’m just simply saying I am not kidding him in and drafting him in the top five rounds as a wide receiver one or a wide receiver to I’m not gonna allow myself to be disappointed with what happens at drafting him there. He goes further, ninth round, I could look at it depending on my team constructs. I could get him in the ninth round and be pretty happy with that knowing I have pieces ahead. I can plug them in for five weeks at the matchup is great, you know, look at different options in that sense, but he’s not a plug and play. And if you’re not a plug and play, you’re not getting drafted in the top four rounds.
Derek 24:24
I think that’s some pretty sage advice there. Russell gage had a fairly decent season as being kind of a third fiddle on the Falcons offense their finishes wide receiver 3772 receptions, 110 targets 786 yards, four touchdowns. Guys any thoughts on Russell gage?
Kevin 24:44
I like those numbers four gauge I feel like those numbers are are repeatable. You know, again, a lot of this depends on seeing how the Falcons are going to change their offense. And yes, there’s a caveat to all this but we just don’t know as we’re selling Sitting here at, you know, January 19. It’s not even the Superbowl yet. So we are definitely projecting forward, not quite knowing how the Falcons offense is going to look next year. But I think those numbers for gauge are obtainable, you know, around 750 yards plus or minus gets into the end zone three, four, maybe five times, he gets to see a lot of softer coverage because he’s not Julio or Calvin Ridley. The Falcons defense is a work in progress. So there’s a good chance that they’re going to be trailing in a lot of different games, they’re going to have to throw the ball to catch up, which leads to opportunities there. So Russell gage is a guy that I don’t think he’s a bad stash. I picked him up in a lot of dynasty leagues. And not necessarily because the huge upside but it’s all about the offense. And it’s all about the scheme within that offense. And he fits the bill, as a guy that if if you’re banged up with injuries, or if you’re hammered with by weeks that you can plug in, and at least there’s anticipation of something like you’re not you don’t put Russell gauge in there and think you’re gonna get nothing you think you’re gonna get five to seven points consistently. And if he falls in the end zone, boom, he just hit 13 and as a wide receiver three or a flex play for that week. That’s about that’s pretty good for what you’re asking him to do.
Derek 26:30
So Hayden Hurst was the tight end and I know that this one is one that we’re just favorite player. It’s one that we’re gonna eat some crow on. I know that but he was tied in number nine, last year. 56, interceptions, 88 targets, 571 yards, six touchdowns. And guys, that was one that we missed on last year because when we were calling that thing out, we were thinking that he was going to be you know, finishing right around. Tight End five was our consensus ranking. I know Alex, you had him as five I had him as four and Kevin you had him as six.
Kevin 27:12
Yeah, I was hoping for bigger and better things from Hayden Hurst I don’t know that I was anticipating Russell gage to have the season that he had. I thought that a lot of those targets that Austin Hooper fried up would go to Hayden Hurst and and while most did some definitely got spread out and Russell gage saw a good amount of those and as well as you know, getting sprinkled in over to Calvin Ridley. I’m not abandoning ship on Hayden Hurst but I’m definitely gonna pump the brakes slightly. I do think that he’s coming into his second year with the team a new offense yet again. So I do think Hayden Hurst is a top 12 tight end and fantasy for 2021. But I realized that it’s going to be more towards the middle to back end than it is the middle to front end of that. So it’s just going to change the tier system a little bit, I’m going to be a little bit more cautious on when I draft him and not get so gung ho, where I was thinking he was gonna be right at the top kind of have that second tier of tight end. Now, I’m gonna pump the brakes a little bit and you know what, now he’s at the back end of the second tier front end to the third tier. So value is going to come into play with Hayden Hurst next year were coming into 2020 I definitely gambled that was a position I gambled on with him and got burned a little bit because I could have picked up Joe Blow and then ended up with tonyan off the waiver wire and I would have been better off for it.
Alex 28:48
It was a gamble. I mean, we look at what Hayden Hearst numbers were coming into 2021 he had 43 career receptions. I mean, we’re talking about a dude who’s had 43 career receptions. He had a career year in 2020. It’s just that we had such high expectations for that year, that it was disappointing that he fell short of what we expected of him. But he had I mean, he had a career year is the best season of his professional career. So I think that might have been a little bit on us expecting a lot out of Hayden Hurst and him not delivering exactly what we were expecting, but he’s still put up you know, again, it’s all a numbers career year for him. Maybe Maybe that one’s a little bit more on us than it and it is on Hayden Hurst
Kevin 29:38
I just wanted him to be a little bit more consistent. And I think that probably would have solved some of my angst about Hayden Hurst is there were games where Matt Ryan just completely forgot he was on the field. The Falcons were so intent on just pushing it down the field down the field down the field, that they forgot that they have a really good Tight End, that that can catch a lot of passes for him at times. And then there’s other games where he seemed to be a focal point in the game plan that week. And so I wish I would have understood that a bit better, right hindsight being 2020. That was one thing that I added or was a big contributing factor to the mess is I thought he was going to be more of a focal point and have a higher floor than what he showed his ceiling was right about where I expected, but I did think the floor was going to be a step or two above what it actually was and and ultimately, that was, you know, that that’s the difference between six and nine. Right. It’s your floor. And and hers just didn’t have the consistency to dock on the door of the top five for the 2020 season.
Derek 30:46
And the other thing too, that I was a little disappointed looking at. And yes, Alex, your point, he did have a career year, saw a lot more time on the field where you’re previously when he was with the Ravens in a run first offense where they don’t throw the ball a ton. And he he was in kind of that that mixed, tight end room with both Nick Boyle and Mark Andrews, I really was expecting to see him kind of blow up and break out. They’re really having kind of that that tight end room to himself in a offense where Matt Ryan targets the tight end and really has had a history of making pretty good tight ends. Yeah, throughout it. So while Yes, he did have a career year, it was certainly less than what we were all anticipating there. And one of the things that I’ll be interested to see there is looking towards 2021, what is that going to look like when it comes down into the redzone. Because when you look at it from 2020, he only had one target inside the five yard line. So those five zone targets, which are the kind of those money those money targets, they’re only one target there. And even if you expand that out to the to the 10, he only saw three additional targets there from inside the tent. So kind of those 10 zone targets for receivers, and tight ends really didn’t see a ton of opportunity there. So that’s one that’ll be interesting to see how that looks and works going forward.
Alex 32:18
If the Falcons move off of Matt Ryan, and they go court, young quarterback if they go quarterback with their number four pick, and that’s the guy that they plan on starting. I think Hayden Hearst stock rises a little bit more going into this season.
Derek 32:32
Yeah, but I don’t know that he breaks into TE or tier one. And and Kevin made a really good point about those tight ends last last episode.
Kevin 32:41
I agree. I agree. Hayden Hurst is such a good run blocking tight end that that leads to why he didn’t see some of those red zone targets. The Falcons went very play action heavy in the red zone in 2020. And his routes run inside the red zone was not was not comparable to what he actually ran throughout the rest of the field before they got into the redzone. So that’s part of the good and the bad thing, right? Like it’s the blessing and the curse. I have a tight end who can block and receive, oh, hey, we’re getting into it. We want to show a running formation keep him in to give our quarterback just a split second more time. And so he’s not running those routes or if it is he’s leaking out extremely late. And the quarterbacks not necessarily looking for him at that point, maybe the clock and his head’s going off and he’s throwing it away, or one of the receivers got open or swinging it out to the running back arena, whether it’s Todd Gurley, Ito Smith, or Brian Hill, so a lot of contributing factors. Yes, a younger quarterback does lean on his tight end a bit more. So that could see that could lean towards some more targets throughout the field. I don’t know that that spells instant redzone success. But again, we’re gonna have to see if he plays more of that Johnny Smith or Delaney Walker type role that Tennessee has had the past couple of years. It is more tied in center, they do get featured more in the red zone. So there’s some possibilities there. He’s not a Titan, he’s not the top tier of Titans, right? He’s not Travis Kelsey, or George kittel or Darren Waller. He is a tear and a half to, you know, to tears kind of below that as you’re breaking down tight ends.
Derek 34:32
Again, if he’s gonna fall to me in round 12 or 13. And he’s still there. Sure, I’m gonna take a shot on him. But last year, you typically had to spend up you had to spend an eighth or ninth round pick, by the time redrafts rolled around in order to pick him up. And that’s not a place that I’m going to be willing to take him at this coming year. So while I think you’re right, I think he’s going to be a mid tier. I’m going to subscribe very heavily to that. That prescription That you wrote last last episode where you talked about staying away from the mid tier tight ends during our new year’s resolution kind of segment there so one of those that if I can get the right value for him sure I’m going to take him but if not, I’m gonna punt the position and i’ll i’ll be kind of hunting the waiver wire week to week on what I can try and put together on a tight end for my rosters. Matt Ryan, quarterback over there in Atlanta. Finish as qb 12 407, completions 626 attempts. So right about a 65 completion percentage, 4581 yards, 26 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and going a little further into it. Alex, you kind of took the cake on where the rankings fell on this one last year, we had a consensus rank on him of nine last year. Alex, you had him at 11. I had him at six and Kevin had him at eight. So he kind of missed the boat on that one but kudos there, Alex.
Alex 36:00
Thank you. But the this all comes down to what are the Falcons do with that number four pick? Do they go defense? Do they go quarterback? I mean, if you’re at number four, and you’ve got all those quarterbacks still there and let’s be real, I think this is going to be a quarterback quick class. I think once we start to see quarterbacks go, we’re gonna see quarterbacks go. So I don’t know I’m not sure what the Falcons want to do. If Matt Ryan is still playing, I mean, Matt Ryan can still swinging the football around, you know, given what he’s got around him and the fact that they had no defense in Atlanta, and it was asked of him to to sling the football around, and he’s proven it. I just don’t know if that’s what we’re gonna see in 21, like we saw in 20.
Derek 36:48
For me, I’m probably out on Matt Ryan, I’m out and independent upon how I how I look at this and how things go. One I it’s gonna be an odd season. So that kind of takes me out of the the Matt Ryan sweepstakes and hunting for him on the draft board there. Just because typically you see him have a worst statistical year and odd years and you do an even years. That being said this last year, a little bit of an outlier, there’s a lot to be said on what’s going to happen with this offense, right if they go to a little bit more of a run centric approach, if they bolster the lineup a little bit to try and give him some more time. But Matt Ryan drops back and throws the ball a ton over 600 attempts for several of the last years there and it’s it’s kind of an interesting thing there because most of the time, if you’ve got a defense that has been bad, which that has been the case with Atlanta for most of the years there, you see a quarterback really kind of make their hay and a lot of like the garbage time and trying to come back from behind and really try and bring that thing through. That hasn’t necessarily been the case with Matt Ryan, a guy that you they haven’t really done a great job of trying to come from behind with him as at the at the helm. So it’s one of those that i i i don’t know that that defense is going to get much better. And the fact that it’s an odd year kind of leads me to be out on him. Yeah, I’d probably be ranking him qb 15 right now if I if I’ll put a number on it. But that being said, if they do draft a quarterback at that fourth pick, we saw what happened when you draft a guy’s replacement before he’s ready to hang it up in Green Bay this year, so there could be something said there but I’m probably gonna still be out in probably looking at him quarterback
Kevin 38:42
1515 Yeah, I think he’s gonna be right. I have met Ryan right at the fringe of that QB one level. I do think that he’s still have some some juice left in the tank. I think that we will see him somewhere in that 11 1213 type range due to the yards that he passes for. If all things stay consistent. As soon as those yardage markers start to dip. That is where his fantasy stock will start to plummet because he doesn’t throw for a ton of touchdowns through all the completions and all the yards, you know, only 26 touchdowns. You say that right? But we’re you know, we’re a little spoiled because you have people like Aaron Rodgers throwing for 48 and that type of deal but Matt Ryan should consistently touch 28 to 32 touchdowns consistently and he just quite hasn’t been able to even with all those weapons around so that is kind of a limiting factor. That being said, He’s only 35 he has some years left in him. Calvin really is is emerging as a true number one receiver. You still have Julio Hayden Hurst like we said Russell Gage, like they do still have a lot of options and quite frankly, if the if the Falcons can run the ball better It might open up things a bit more for Matt Ryan to be more successful on some of these deep shots down the field and be able to make up some of his fantasy points that way, but he has no running capability and with the NFL, and their quarterbacks largely trending in that direction to have some sort of mobility around him. His his ceiling, as far as fantasy purposes, is kind of kept like there, even with his best year. I don’t know that Matt Ryan can finish any better than like cube eight in fantasy just because he does not use his legs. And every quarterback above him, will with the exception of Aaron Rodgers, but Aaron Rodgers when you’re throwing for 40 plus touchdown, so you don’t need to use your legs. So that’s that’s kind of the one caveat, Matt Ryan’s a guy that I like into into QB setups are super flex setup, because you kind of get that you get that guy who’s at the top end of of the QB two category. So if you’re able to finagle something like that, if he falls in a draft, which I fully expect him to fall, I think he’s going to plummet pretty hard coming up in 2021 draft, so I do think you’ll be able to get them for some value, which will lead to a good setup in Super flex or two QB style leagues. But he is a guy that you’re going to be looking at and like the, I don’t know, 1213 type round. Most of those quarterbacks are going Seven, eight, and nine. So you’re going to wait a little bit on Matt Ryan, but I would expect him to dip a little bit with all the changes in Atlanta coming and you can get a real value for him at that point.
Derek 41:44
Guys, that’ll go ahead and move us over into our three player stack a little bit different from last week. This one we’re gonna snake draft this thing where we’re each going to be drafting a tight end wide receiver running back, and any player that’s playing in the conference championship is available. We’ll go ahead and kick it off with the tight end. Alex, you are on the board, sir.
Alex 42:05
Okay, this one’s gonna be really really difficult. Um, so many good tight ends playing this week. I will go with Yeah, Travis Kelsey.
Derek 42:16
Sorry you don’t get him because his new name is Mr. consistency.
Alex 42:20
Oh, excuse me, Mr. consistency. Travis Kelsey.
Kevin 42:24
I am going to take Bobby Tanya, I think it’s one area that the Packers will be able to exploit the Buccaneers a little bit coming up this weekend.
Derek 42:31
Fair enough. I am gonna take I’m gonna take the gronk Alrighty, that’ll move us over to the wide receiver Kevin, you are on the board first sir.
Kevin 42:40
Man, Derek you have to be salivating sitting it too because you know you’re gonna get a very Primo wide receiver really all three of us are it’s just a matter of which guy you think is going to have the biggest pop. I’m going to go with stefon Diggs because he is the main and only show in town and buffalo. I expect that game to be back and forth. He will see more targets than a davante Adams and I think buffalo is going to be playing over the top of tyreke Hill to kind of limit the big play from him. So I’m going with Diggs
Derek 43:13
and I’m not gonna lie if I was sitting in the same position I would have gotten digs there as well. I think Tampa Bay’s got the better cornerbacks there than what the chiefs are gonna be able to provide so I would have done the same thing but that being the case, I can’t pass on davante Adams that’s the pic there at number two.
Alex 43:32
And here I was thinking man I’m gonna get digs like they’re gonna take davante Adams we’ll take a Mike Evans I’ll take it Chris Godwin. No,So yeah, I’m gonna get stefon Diggs Ah, I will go I guess I have to I don’t want to do this because it’s kind of counterintuitive to take a wide receiver and a tight end from the same team. I will go
Kevin 44:04
I love
Alex 44:05
this is really tough man
Kevin 44:06
This is drafting right when you put a player on tilt because you completely screwed up their thought process. This is what you live for when you are drafting a snake draft and everyone gets to see it live right now. It’s
Alex 44:21
I’m going Godwin. That’s silly, but it might work.
Derek 44:26
Oh, that was that is awesome. Right there.
Alex 44:28
Okay, you guys are wrecked my whole thought process. wrecked. It just wrecked it
Kevin 44:34
damn near killed them.
Derek 44:35
Quite frankly, I don’t want many of the packers and them having to go up against Jaire Alexander. No, thank you. No, thank you at all. So it’s gonna put me on the clock with the running back position. And this is one that there’s several things that you could go there. And while I’m tempted to go a certain way just because of the matchup there. I’m I’m gonna take the Probably the best running back available here. And I’m gonna end up pairing up a couple of Packers here. Aaron Jones and Steph are Aaron Jones and davante Adams as my pair up. Alex that puts you on the clock.
Alex 45:14
Oh, I put a second here. Thank god cuz I was like, I don’t know what I’m gonna do if Kevin takes my guy. Ah, I will also I think go with the pair up here and I will go y’all go I’ll go Ronald Jones. Although that’s silly Ronald Jones, he gets a Green Bay front seven. It’s not all that enticing, but
Kevin 45:35
I
Alex 45:36
it’s better than the ghost of Edwards Hilaire or whatever, Buffalo who will run the ball six times.
Kevin 45:43
I Singletary looked decent against the Ravens for what the Ravens presented them. Not great. But for how buff buffalo has been running us. All right. I think I have to go ch here. I think I need a piece of that chiefs offense. This is the way I’m going to get it. He very well may not play it very well. May be what? Dexter Williams again? Who?
Derek 46:10
Darrell Williams
Kevin 46:11
of Darrell Williams. Excuse me, man. Maybe that’s the play. Yeah. Darrell Williams. I know that I’m saying that. I’m gonna talk myself into that. I’m gonna go Darrell Williams. And kind of a dark horse shot at running back in a field that’s not very good for conference championship games.
Alex 46:33
Well, Buffalo I mean, what was it? He had three rushing attempts at halftime.
Kevin 46:38
Like if I could take well if I could take Josh Allen is my running back. I would.
Alex 46:46
Yeah, look, you know what? Let’s do that. Let’s let him have Josh Allen.
Derek 46:50
No,
Alex 46:50
but he only gets running back numbers. He only gets points per rush and per rush yard. He doesn’t I
Kevin 46:56
will stick with Darrell Williams.
Derek 46:59
Let him do that Josh Allen’s gonna run two in I was actually surprised there Kevin that you didn’t box Alex in there and take four net because that one could have been very interested on getting kinda passing work and the fact that Green Bay has been very forgiving to opposing running backs this year.
Kevin 47:16
You know, the first matchup they the Packers did not give a whole lot up on the ground especially to rojo Yes, rojo fell into the end zone. But it was a one yard score and a two yard score. All points count, but you can’t consistently predict touchdowns. So that was part of the reason I stayed away from that. I’m glad that Aaron Jones was off the board because I wanted to not have to take him and so that matchup scares me a little bit. And really that’s another guy I could have gone I could have gone with Williams from from the packers and felt okay about it, saying that he’s gonna catch a pass and run it in there. So it is what it is guys, the rosters are set. We’re gonna see how this shakes out. I like the fact that we’ve made Alex really scratched his head and and think about his wide receiver on the one that I thought I wouldn’t have to think about like I thought wide receiver would be the easiest one to
Derek 48:11
Yeah, like we’re gonna let the number one wide receiver for the league this year fall to you.
Alex 48:16
I’ve thought big so I thought you guys would not
Kevin 48:20
I thought Adams but I do think that I think the Buccaneers kind of had some that game in Tampa. They kind of have an idea of how to bracket him and I think you very well could see a big game from Allen Lazard. Yeah, or tonyan I do on the right play there.
Derek 48:40
Yeah, how’d you pass on him? Alex, he wasn’t gonna fall to you because he was going to be my pick. I really thought Kevin was going to take davante Adams and I’d get stefon Diggs. So Well guys, I do believe that that’s going to wrap up yet another episode of the good ol boys fantasy football podcast. Make sure you’re hitting us up on the socials instagram, twitter, facebook at good old boys FF. You can find us on youtube with our YouTube channel, the little boys fantasy football podcast YouTube channel. For Kevin and Alex. I’m Derek. Have a good one. Be safe.