NFL News & 2021 ADP Shuffle

NFL News & 2021 ADP Shuffle

Intro 00:17
You’re listening to the good old boys fantasy football podcast. Now here’s your host, Kevin, Derek and Alex.

Derek 00:24
Alrighty welcome in ladies and gentlemen to another episode of the good old boys fantasy football Podcast. I am Derek and I am joined as always by your co host, Kevin Alex’s should be moseying along shortly. I we look forward to that. But Kevin, how are we doing tonight?

Kevin 00:42
I am. I’m doing great, man. So this is a this is a fun time of year if you are a sports enthusiast, right you have, sir. You have Lord Stanley’s cup going on in the NHL and the playoffs there which truth be told guys, I am not a I’m not a huge hockey kind of sewer. But I love playoff hockey, like you can feel the intensity is tangible, the the the want to and the desire of these guys to win the Stanley Cup. So I find it very fun to watch. I think it’s I think it’s intense. I think the emotions are shown all over the ice. And it’s a great way of introducing people to hockey. Just because the fans and the atmosphere help help it be engaging. So that’s my side note about hockey for that promise. I don’t know enough about it to continue talking about it. And I apologize for those who do know hockey that I’ve somehow defaced your your sport. I apologize. That being said, basketballs on to play basketball is good. There’s there’s a lot of different things. I’m hawks and sixers were playing earlier tonight. So and we’re blessed here in Denver Derrick, right, that the nuggets and the avalanche are both in the second round of their respective playoffs. So there’s a little bit of hometown feeling behind there. But it’s making it fun. It’s making the nights go by pretty quick because generally they play an opposite night. So there’s always something to be engaged with. I’d say the Colorado Rockies but quite frankly, they suck and I won’t watch another game until the Mumford sell the team. Once the Rockies are sold to an owner who actually gives a crap, I will then start to consume hometown baseball as it were. But other than that, it’s good that a lot of coach speak going along through the NFL. So things have kind of hit the dog days, right, we’re getting into some of these mandatory mini camps. So we’re getting a little bit of news about that, that I know we’re going to touch on but all things considered. There’s there’s quite a bit of sports entertainment to consume at the moment. So even though we’re in the dog days of summer and NFL hasn’t really fired off yet, there’s enough on to pique my interest because there’s other other things that I can look at and say hey, yeah, this is entertaining for and I can buy into this sit down, have a little bit of tequila, watch some sports and call it a good night.

Derek 03:23
There you go. So yeah, no, you’re right, the, the nugs and the Avs, both going through the Nugs looked looked a little not so great the other night playing against the suns, but hopefully they’ll rebound here and bounce back in game two. And see if we can’t keep watching the nuggets roll through there. The Avs right now up on the Golden Knights in that, that game in the third period. So some good things going on there. But guys, if you haven’t done so already, do us a favor, hop over to the YouTube, click the subscribe button on there. It’s the good old boys fantasy football podcast YouTube channel. You can also find us on the socials twitch Twitter, Instagram, Facebook at good old boys FF and we got lots of great stuff coming your way goodoldboysff.com lots of good things. But guys, we’ve got a great show for you tonight. We are going to hit up some NFL news, go suits go through some things there. We’ve got a little AB ADP type of game that we’re going to play and some you know outperform underperformed type of things go on through there. And then we’ve got our team of the week that we’re going to break down and that’s the Cleveland Browns and the Cleveland Browns are a lot more fun to talk about these days. And they were even last year or previously into that. So got some good things go in there.

NFL News

But let’s go ahead and hop on over into the news. And Kevin you already mentioned that a lot of coach speak going on there in the in the NFL to the point where you’re you’re looking through some of these timelines and looking through some of these reports and a lot of it is trying to sift through and see What really is coach speak and what really isn’t and how that’s going to affect the otas have kind of concluded there. A lot of mini camps are starting. You had Aaron Rodgers officially become a holdout today missing the the mini camp was a no show on that one. The Ravens resigned or signed Gus Edwards to an extension two years 10 million. Julio Jones made some news over the last little bit where he was traded for a 2022 second, and a 2023 4th. The Falcons also getting back a 23 6th rounder in there, the Viking sign bashaud breeland. And Cam Newton hurt his right hand in otas. So Kevin, what do you make in some of this news?

Kevin 05:46
Um, that’s just something to kind of talk about, honestly, like, the biggest thing is still the Aaron Rodgers deal like, yes, he didn’t show up. Yes, the Packers can find him $93,000 and change if he doesn’t show up for this mandatory minicamp. From all information gathered across the sports universe, no one knows what Aaron Rodgers is going to do. Seemingly like we don’t know if he’s going to show up tomorrow. We don’t know if he’s going to sit out all three days. We don’t know if the packers are actually going to charge him that $93,000 worth of fines, or if they’re just going to like, hey, okay, fine, you know, haha, you got this, we’re not going to charge you and then kind of move on. So there’s that. I think the one thing that we didn’t have in here that I found interesting was juwan. James. That only because the Broncos had him on the roster, and he became the center of controversy, right? blows out his Achilles doing activities outside of the outside of the tub right outside of the clubhouse, if you will. And so the Broncos cut him and didn’t have to pay him like $15 million. Well, he got signed by the Ravens on a two year deal, which is mind blowing. But apparently, there’s still people in NFL circles who thinks there’s talent there. But you have to have him on the field for that talent to show outside that. God bless you Julio Jones, Atlanta thinks you know best of luck in Tennessee. And we’ll see what it brings here in the AFC

Derek 07:30
get the the funny thing was that I don’t know. It’s really funny. But the interesting thing is probably a better way to put that is you and I were in some drafts going through there and watching some of the comments blow up there with other folks in the community and watching Twitter, just the fantasy Twitter, you universe they’re just kind of explode around this news. And the instant reactions towards how this drastically affects Ryan Tannehill of all folks. And you know a lot of things that I saw there were people were instantly moving him up into almost a top five quarterback type of range top six at the worst case, and I am I’m not a buyer of that one. And so I guess kind of that being said, right, where do you think this really affects some of these guys surrounding this and some of the auxiliary pieces there, right? Like what does this do for AJ Brown? What does this do for Ryan Tannehill? What does it do for Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley and the receiving corps over there in Atlanta for you.

Kevin 08:33
Calvin Ridley was already a top 10 receiver coming in, like in both redraft and dynasty purposes. I think that fits. He’s somewhere in the top 10 we don’t know exactly how that’s gonna pan out necessarily. Calvin Ridley has still had a game or two each of the past two seasons where he is completely gone. Like completely disappears. Maybe that was some of the play calling. Maybe that was Matt Ryan not finding him maybe it was Calvin Ridley not finding ways to beat the coverage. Like you know, there’s a lot of different things that could include that, but overall, he’s gonna be I think he’s a wide receiver one and he’s being drafted as such, right? Like you can play with the numbers and kind of see how that goes. So really doesn’t change a whole lot for me like it cements it, but it doesn’t necessarily elevate it. Russell Gage is the guy that elevates for me and the Falcons offense. Right now he’s going like stupid late 14th 15th 16th round in a lot of drafts. Up till this point. I just picked them up. What was that Derrick in the 13th? I just picked him up in the 13th round of a basketball league. Yeah. Right before we started the show. I feel really good about that because he is clearly the number two option in Atlanta now he was we were talking about this Derek and you mentioned you know, he was on pace for 90 receptions for like 1100 yards and like nine touchdowns or Something like that. It for 17 games slate by the end of last year. I’ll take that. Like what’s wrong with that? So he’s a guy who has some value on the Tennessee side. Tannahill Oh, I think Tannahill, I think it helps him be more efficient, I think they’re going to do a little bit more with their passing work now, not that they’re going to run more passing place that they’re going to be able to do more with that set amount, this is still a run first team. And this is still a team that is completely centralized around Derrick Henry. But what this helps is it helps Ryan Tannehill be more efficient. And it gives him a true one two option to where safeties can’t roll over on top of AJ Brown, because Julio is still good enough to beat us in single coverage. So now you have to worry about both kind of figured out where that’s going. So it helps balance that offense a little bit, but I don’t know that it drastically hurts AJ Brown, because I think he’s gonna see more single coverage. And I also don’t think it necessarily helps Ryan Tannehill because they’re not gonna throw the ball all that much more.

Derek 11:09
Yeah, that was, that was kind of my take on that as well. And it a lot of that kind of goes back to I wrote an article, you know, after we got done with some of the coaching, carousel and changes and that kind of stuff, and it’s up on our website, you can read it there. But in summation of it, when we got to Tennessee, they’re going to do that offense, very similar to what it was last year, even though the offensive coordinators no longer there. The head coach is a defensive minded head coach, right? Like that’s, he came from that patriots system. He he was a defensive player in the league. And so when you look at how they like to win games, it’s in that same kind of mold, they want to play really good defense, and they want to control the clock with the run and they’ve got a running back, they can do that. And where Ryan Tannehill has always seen or has seen success in Tennessee is like you said, being very, very efficient. And having a guy like AJ Brown, that can be a one touch type of receiver. And you can hit them on a quick slant and he can take it to the house kind of thing running over a guy along the way. But that I don’t see I don’t see an uptick in the passing game either. Simply from the standpoint that they lost several key receiving weapons during this offseason off of that Tennessee team, right. Like they lost Corey Davis who signed with another team. They lost john smith, who signed with another team Adam Humphries is no longer there either. You brought in Van Jefferson, to I’m sorry, not at Van Jefferson, Joshua. Yep, I was wrong Rams. Sorry. You brought in Josh Reynolds to you know, kind of not to be that guy. But he was never really more than about a three wide receiver three on most teams. So the amount of volume isn’t going to change. It’s simply going to change it from a standpoint of you can’t you can’t load up on either one of those wide receivers and the fact that both of those wide receivers out there you can’t load up the box either. And really put nine guys in the box eight nine guys in the box because you got to play enough to cover both of those receivers. So for me, it doesn’t really do much for Tannahill doesn’t really do much for those other guys. It’s very interesting to look at the Atlanta side of it. And I know you and I talked about this one a while back where it was. I said I think I said to you that I really think that they drafted Kyle Pitts to be Julio his replacement and play more of a receiver type of work than they ever drafted him to be a tight end. And you look at a lot of his measurables coming out with the size, the speed, that kind of stuff. He’s got that ability to be that super big body type of receiver which Julio dude did immensely well at down there in Atlanta in his time there so we may actually see Julio, you see a little bit of an uptick there because of the fact that Tennessee you’ll probably see them in the redzone more often than you saw the Falcons and you’ll be able to see them be more efficient down there with those touchdowns. So you may see a Julio with an uptick in touchdowns. But yardage wise, I think you’ll see him about the same receptions. I think you’ll see him roughly about the same as well. So

Kevin 14:24
yeah, I think I think one thing just to touch on Tannahill briefly, the thing that could increase with Tannahill, besides his efficiency, right completion percentage, I mean, I think his rushing stats might improve here. Like maybe you think about it, because you have two dominant outside playmakers and you have Derrick Henry. Like there’s a lot of skill position focus that’s going to be placed on this Titans offense. And if teams if teams are dead set and running zone against the Titans Ryan Tannehill is good enough. And Julio is more than experienced enough to get into the weak spots of those zones and start making a living off of that. But if you switch over and you play, man, now, when everybody’s running out, all their backs are turned to Ryan Tannehill. So even if it’s not there, it allows him the ability to probably take the ball and and scamper we’ll call it a little bit more not necessarily designed runs, but allow him to scramble and scamper for some of those extra first downs. So that might be really the biggest growth that you see with Ryan Tannehill. Right? Like, yes, you see some, his completion percentage improves. So that fundamentally changes his passing his passing statistics a little bit, but his rushing stats are what might actually go up because there’s gonna be so much attention elsewhere, that there will be voids and times where he’s able to, you know, take the ball and and run for eight to 15 yards and that’s a big range in the NFL, I get that. But remember, he used to play wide receiver he’s not bad with the ball in his hands. Like he can make a guy Miss if he chooses to. So it’s very interesting. I think normally I look over Ryan Tannehill. Even with his his success over the past couple years, I do think that this move at least solidifies him right. Like he is now a guy that I’m going to be paying closer attention to besides I don’t love Tannahill. But I can get a guy who’s kind of like him. Well, now it’s a guy like I can like Tannahill, and on a certain league or two, I can take a flyer on him, and feel pretty good about it. Yeah.

Derek 16:39
Yeah, absolutely. The the other kind of couple of other interesting things that came out there was cam hurt Cam Newton hurting his his throwing hand out there in the otas. And what do you think that speeds up the timeline on Mack Jones? I thought they’re saying it was just a bone bruise. But what are your thoughts there? I don’t know

Kevin 17:03
that it speeds up Mack Jones. Honestly, I do think that they want Matt Jones to sit down and get used to the Patriot way. Like I can, I can completely see where belcheck wants Mack Jones to really get close to Josh McDaniels and understand the playbook and not to say that he won’t get playing time. I just don’t know that speeds it up. Like you have your guy in cam. He has to be more efficient than what he was last year. But they also have an entire new receiving corps around him now to help him do that. So I think that, yeah, it’s a bone bruise. But it gives Maxim some reps with the first team offense, a little bit of camps feeling a little sore and asked to suck it up. But quite frankly, a bone bruise on your throwing in Cam Newton would be playing if there’s a game this Sunday, like, that is what it is they’re getting its news now because there’s nothing else to talk about. But But other than that, you know what Belichick does? He puts a questionable tag on everybody anyway on the injury report, and then they trot them all out there. So if there was a game cam would be playing. So I don’t think it’s it’s big news. It’s just there’s not a whole lot else to talk about. So it seems a little bit larger than what it is.

Derek 18:19
Fair enough. Another one that was you know, there was a signing and some coach speak associated with it as well. You had the Gus buss. Gus Edwards signing his extension there where he’s gonna make about $5 million a year on that extension. And the coach coming out saying that they want to do two things on the offensive, the offensive coordinator was saying they wanted to do two more things. One, they wanted to pass the ball more, and they’ve got a running bike by committee approach that they’re going to be looking to take there. So while it doesn’t necessarily mean much for Gus Edwards, who was incredibly efficient the last last couple of years in the league. The question is, what does it do for JK Dobbins here and some of this?

Kevin 19:03
It puts a cap on the ceiling for sure. Like, Dobbins, was efficient in his own right, heading into the playoffs, right he had was it six straight games with a touchdown to end the regular season and then got shut out against the bills in the playoffs, but he was efficient in his own right part of that is how the Ravens offense is designed right that zone running scheme and the ever present threat of Lamar Jackson taking the ball and running. I expect both these backs to be at least efficient. I expect them both to be rostered across all fantasy football formats. Yes, you’re gonna pay a premium for for JK Dobbins. And I think rightfully so. He’s still the one a he’s the guy who I truly believe is going to get the I’m gonna say the lion’s share of the rushing work that doesn’t go to Lamar Jackson. But Gus has been efficient. He’s Not a bad guy to have on your roster he’s not a bad villain. He’s not a bad basketball player. He’s a guy you can get late and he can easily fall into the end zone two or three times a game if this if if the rotations work out just right. And you end up with a great performance at it Gus Edwards all this stuff is within his wheelhouse. He receives the ball fairly well out of the backfield as well. He does a good job picking up the Blitz, like Gus Edwards limitations has has been the guys in front of them. It’s not necessarily what Gus Edwards can do. Right. Like he had Mark Ingram, who kept his ability. Because Mark Ingram, especially that first season in Baltimore was outstanding. And then last year, then you had a three headed monster, right? You had Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards. Oh, and then you have this electric rookie that you just drafted and then it all kind of shuffled out. So I could see this being a one two punch, but I think both guys have enough volume heading their way to make them fantasy relevant. So downgrade JK Dobbins slightly? Yeah, absolutely, he kind of drops out. So instead of being in that bottom of that, what is the bottom of that kind of third tier of running backs, if you will, he falls into kind of that middle of the fourth tier, because I do think that this does cap his ceiling. And it raises Gus Edwards a little bit. So maybe now instead of having to pick them up in the 12th, round, maybe you need to pick them up in like the 10th. And, you know, do that to make sure that you have a running back depth piece that you know, is going to see some work. That’s always a big thing. When you’re looking for running back depth. Do you want to see the clear path to volume? Gus Edwards has some of that. So that’s where I guess the the extension of Edwards kind of solidifies the Ravens like this guy, and they’re gonna use him. So now we need to find out where the right places to evaluate him fantasy wise, and where he can best fit on rosters?

Derek 21:58
Yeah, absolutely. I would agree with that as well. Let’s go ahead and move on over to some ADP performance unless you’ve got any other thoughts on the news?

Kevin 22:10
No, I like ADP strap season. Let’s get to it.

Derek 22:13
Alrighty, so guys, with the ADP, right? Like, you look at a lot of these things, and that ADP is ultimately going to determine the value of your how you’re able to construct your roster, they’re just based on where guys are being drafted in the average there. So we’re gonna go through here and we’re going to talk a little bit on some overperform underperform type of players based on their current ADP position. And when we talk about over performing or underperforming, we’re talking about guys that are going to have a delta of roughly 10 in either direction on that, right. So if they’re going to outperform Yeah, they’re running back 30. But we think that they’re going to be a top 20 kind of guy type of deal. And the flip side also holding true there that they’re being drafted around, do running back 20. And we think that they’re going to be a 30 or worse type of running back. That’s what we’re talking about here. And we’re just kind of go through some of these different things and, and talk some of those things through So Kevin, what do you got that is a ADP outperformer.

ADP Shuffle

Kevin 23:16
I have three of them. And if you were paying attention to the show last week, they all come from the same team. It is all three Indianapolis Colts receivers in T Y Hilton, Michael Pittman, and Paris Campbell. I made my claim last week, I think all three of these guys will finish in wide receiver to territory. Currently, all three of these guys are being drafted in wide receiver three or later territory. Pittman, kind of in the middle of that wide receiver three territory, T Y Hilton at the bottom of that wide receiver three territory. And Paris Campbell who’s being drafted as kind of like a wide receiver five. So all three of them, I think all three of these culture receivers are going to outperform their ATP. So value, there’s value their values good to have. So I’m not saying run out and grab them, you know, super early, but you know if you can connect at least one of these guys. You know, you don’t want to bank on one team doing it. But if you can get your hands on one of these guys. more power to you. And and and really, Derek, you said you thought Campbell had the chance to outperform Pittman last week, right? So that leaves the most value, if you can get a guy in the roughly 13/14 round is where Paris Campbell’s going. And he ends up being a wide receiver too, which would essentially make him a what fifth round, fifth round player. That’s a ton of value. That’s nine rounds of value that you got off a guy that you’re going to end up starting damn near every single week in most roster construction layout So there’s a ton of value there. Um, but those are definitely the guys that jump off the page at me when I’m seeing outperform. I’m looking for Colts wide receivers because I think all three of them will outperform their ATP.

Derek 25:14
Yes. And right there with you. Like I said, Let’s take my kind of planted the flag on Parris Campbell last week on that one and still sticking by that, you’ll look at it. He is the 69th, wide receiver off the board and a lot of cases. And I very easily see him outperforming that spot by roughly 50 spots when it’s all said and done. So yep, I’m agreeing with you on that one wholeheartedly. And some other guys out there too, that can drastically outperform ADP, Russell gages guy we brought up just a little bit ago. And he’s a guy that in a lot of cases, his draft being drafted right around Paris, Campbell. And, yeah, as a guy that I most places, he’s the 77th, wide receiver off of the board. So actually taken after Paris, Campbell and a lot of cases. And if they utilize him the way we saw them utilize him last year with the absence of Julio been banged up for a couple of those games, and how that looks and works. There’s no reason that he can’t finish up there in a wide receiver three or four territory. But you know, you’re drafting him is a late round Dart throw type of guy and a guy that I think will easily outperform that you’re going through and looking at a couple of guys, when you’re talking while are running back there. There’s a there’s a few that kind of stuck out to me. And Mike Davis right now is being drafted as the running back 29 coming off the board. And that’s a guy that right now with that the way that Atlanta offense is constructed, he is the wide receiver I’m sorry, the running back one on that roster, he’s going to start he’s going to get the volume. They don’t really have a ton of other roster pieces around him in order to compete for runningback touches there. So there’s no reason that you can’t see Mike Davis finishes a top, you know, top 20 running back in there. Ronald Jones is another one that’s being drafted at running back 30. And, you know, everybody, I think people dismiss him a little bit because of the fact that Leonard Fournette had the playoff run that he had. But guys, Ronald Jones got hurt, going into those last couple of games of the season, missed some time there was a little banged up throughout that playoff run there as well. And I think that drastically affected how they utilized him. But when he was on the field last year, going through that he was electric, and has big play breakout type of speed and can utilize that we saw that a come true a couple of times, including the 90 yard touchdown run where he just ran away from folks. So another guy that you can pick up and you with with where he’s going a lot of times you’re talking to 6/7 round running back, that could easily get you in a mid running back to type of tier where you typically have to spend a third or fourth round draft capital to get a guy that’s going to compete similarly. So when you’re talking some ADP like those are three guys for me that will outperform their ADP and do it very well for you. Let’s maybe shift some gears then unless you’ve got a any more outperformers you want to mention.

Kevin 28:34
I think the one the one running back outperformance that I’m that I’m really starting to like the more and more. I look into it and this offseason goes is clyde edwards Miller. Yeah, I think that he was a guy who everyone drafted at the back end of the first round last year. First three or four games kind of started out with a bang, and then kind of faded as the Chiefs offense kind of really stuttered a little bit in the middle of the season. And they weren’t using him quite as much as you thought. But he is he’s the number one guy in that offense. He is clearly in line for the lion’s share of touches. They’re like the the path to volume is very clear for him. And right now he’s being drafted as the running back 1819 depending on what board you’re looking at, I could see him finishing right around the top 10 he I think he could finish in runningback one territory. So it may not quite be that to hold 10 spots that you’re talking about Derek but for a guy that you’re picking up is your RB two in most cases, because you’re getting them in the third round at some point, depending on who you’re drafting with. But middle of the third round, call it and he can outperform it. Be a top 10 guy for some of these guys that were drafted in the top half of the second round, there’s gonna be a little value there. And especially for a guy that you weren’t drafting to carry your fantasy team. The road to volume is there. And he very easily could be the guy that everyone drafted him to be last year. It just took them that full year to develop. So he’s another guy that I’m really happy if honestly, if I’m drafting and I can go running back receiver and then running back again in the third round. And if he’s that running back and pick it up in the third round, I’m really happy with that guys, because I have that piece of the cheese offense, which we keep telling everyone you got to find a way to get a piece of that offense. So it gets me a piece of that offense. And he has a guy with a lot of upside because the path to volume is there.

Derek 30:50
Absolutely. Yeah, no, I like that one as well. Let’s, let’s go ahead and talk about some underperformers. And you know, same type of thing there right guys that you think are being overdrafted right now that are not going to live up to their ATP. So who are some some underperformers for a year from an ATP standpoint?

Kevin 31:12
A guy who’s being drafted right around clyde edwards alehrer. coincidently, who I think is going to go in the opposite direction is Myles Sanders. I don’t like Myles Sanders, I don’t like that situation in Philadelphia. They brought in a bunch of different running backs to really kind of clutter that backfield. Sanders has that boom potential. So yes, he has some best ball appeal, but outside of a couple 70 plus yard runs last year. I don’t think that he’s a guy who’s going to be able to consistently perform for you. And I do think he’s a guy that is going to fall into that running back Free Territory, not the running back to the upper half of the running back to territory that you drafted him to be so Myles Sanders is a guy that I think is is is going to be a bust as far as that goes and a guy that I’m definitely avoiding.

Derek 32:12
Fair enough. I’m I’m right there with you. I think I don’t know that he’s gonna necessarily i don’t i don’t see him falling quite as far as you but I see him at being overdrafted for sure at this point. You know, another guy, and it pains me to say this because the talent is certainly there. But the way that the offense is starting to shape up and listening to some of the coach speak around how they’re they’re going to plan on utilizing this position is the Andre Swift. Right now he’s coming off the board as about the 12th running back in most cases, which puts him you know, running back one territory that he’s got to live up to in order to get to that and when you look at it, they’re talking about riding the hot hand when it comes in to that so which Yeah, talent wise DeAndre Swift is the most talented back that that that they’ve got on that that roster but if they’re going to run a hot hand approach, yeah, you never know you could see Jamal Williams catch fire again. And now DeAndre Swift is is playing the backburner there? They keep bringing in running backs to try out things like that they may end up bringing in Todd Gurley as well. And Todd Gurley could be a guy that could siphon off some touchdowns, things like that, like he did last year in Atlanta. So the fact that you’ve got the coaching staff talking about running back by committee right in the hot hand, I don’t see that Detroit offense being really any good at all this this year. I don’t see that defense being overly good. So they’re going to be behind a fair bit. They’re gonna lose a lot of games I do see and so when it’s all said and done a bad offense with a there’s gonna lose a quite a few games and a running back squad. I’m out on that one. And I think that that’s one that he will disappoint and be a little overdrafted there so I still see him finishing running back to but it’s gonna be French running back to for me.

Kevin 34:17
Yeah, I think there’s some changing positions. here’s here’s two other guys from the same position group I both think are being way overdrafted. One is Taysom Hill. I’m in I’m in the Jameis Winston camp. And it’s not necessarily the round comparison. It’s more so like you said the The, the, I guess I consider it the ADP of where the quarterbacks are like Taysom Hill is currently the 20th quarterback off the board. He’s not finishing in the top 20 of quarterbacks guys. Like I really think that jamis is that it’s his job to lose right now. Yes, taysom will be used, but I don’t know that he’s going to be used in to garner a, you know QB to consideration in a super flex league. So he’s the guy that I’m fading I’m not liking Taysom Hill at all. And another guy who everyone just for whatever reason is claiming in the fantasy community is claiming this kind of starters Trey Lance. I don’t think Trey Lance sees the field if Jimmy g stays healthy. I think they want to develop train Lance. I think that that offense are really that team is built for more of a win now purpose. And yes, tre Lance can help them continue that but Jimmy G is coming off an injury. He’s playing for his football career here guys. Like he’s not just out playing for a position and knowing that, well, if I don’t make it, I can go on to some of the team like Jimmy G’s, quite possibly playing for his football career with the way the quarterback position across the NFL is set up right now. So he’s not going to go down without a fight. He’s going to go in, he’s going to compete. He has a handle on the playbook already. So he’s a leg up there in the fact that he understands the terminology and the concepts that the 40 Niners use. So I don’t see Trey Lance getting on the field unless Jimmy g gets injured, which he’s had issues staying healthy, so that’s possible.

Derek 36:22
He is definitely health resistant.

Kevin 36:24
Yes, he is. He’s a little health resistant. So there’s that possibility but Trey Lance is the 22nd quarterback overall. No, no truelancer is not the 22nd quarterback overall this season guys like I just I’m not gonna buy that I’m not gonna buy any any reason that Trey Lynch should be drafted in a redraft league behind Trevor Lawrence, who we know is starting from day one who Ryan Fitzpatrick is going after him. Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Daniel Jones and Cam Newton like, those are the immediate guys whose ADP is lower than Trey Lance. I don’t see him beating any one of these guys in a redraft league. By the time it’s all said and done with this season. Don’t get me wrong. The kid has talent. I think he will have some success in the NFL how much Only time will tell. But for the 2021 season. And that’s what we’re talking about right now. drafting. I’m not drafting him there. I would much rather I would rather take my chances with Derek Carr, who quietly had a really really good season last year, guys, like go look at the numbers. Jared Derek Carr. had a very good season he finished as QB forte. Team. Am I Is that correct? Derek, I believe.

Derek 37:41
I don’t know that he made it that high. But he wasn’t far off of it either. Give me two seconds. Give me 13. He was qb 13. Okay,

Kevin 37:49
so yeah. And he was extremely efficient. So I, it’s just all those things adding up. So those are just two guys that again, buyer beware. They’re just guys that I’m fading. I’m not like in Taysom Hill. And this season, I’m not liking Trey Lance. This same time next year, I might love Trey Lance like who knows what’s gonna happen and what the roster constructs are gonna look like. But for 2021. That’s where I’m sitting on on those quarterbacks in particular.

Derek 38:18
Gotcha. The one I’ve got is probably going to cause a little bit of stir in the, in the community, so to speak here, but is a guy that came out of nowhere last year, had a phenomenal finish. And in the wide receiver grouping, he that he literally exploded onto the scene, things like that. And there was a lot of things that that led up to that. But Justin Jefferson right now is being the eighth wide receiver taken off the board, now extremely talented. He’s got a good offense there. But when you look at why he exploded like he did, Minnesota had a horrendous defense last year. They were just bad defensively. So they were behind in a lot of games. They had to throw the ball to play catch up there. And I don’t see that happening. Again, they made a lot of moves this last this offseason, to you know, shore up that defense there. And I think that, you know, Mike Zimmer, a defensive minded head coach will have brought that thing around. So we’re not going to see that bad that bad defense leave them in a lot of holes where they’ve got to try and play catch up all game long. And you saw both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson have a incredibly good finishes. He’ll still finish very well. He’ll certainly be up there but I see him. I see him down there kind of middle of wide receiver to when it’s all said and done.

Kevin 39:54
Yeah, I think some regression based off of that historical rookie campaign is to be spected right, like, it’s it’s everybody kind of falls into a differently and what camp you’re in. Yes, he’s a phenomenal talent. But I don’t know that we will have to see how we adjust to a full season of being the wide receiver one. It is quite possible that him and Adam Thielen kind of switch roles the coverage gets rolled to Jefferson we talked about this when we covered the Vikings a couple of weeks back right I made this exact same case, you can see coverage being shifted towards Jefferson, the the safety rolling over the top a little bit if they’re playing back, right, because that you still have Dalvin Cook to deal with. But I do think that you’re gonna see them play a little bit deeper to not get beat on the some of the deep balls that they did last year by Jefferson. And they’re gonna make it a little bit harder for him to to get that run after the catch and and be able to accumulate some of the yards that he was able to get last year.

Derek 40:59
Yeah, I just I can’t. I can’t imagine a world in which he’s able to duplicate that on a run first team with an improved defense. I just don’t see it happening. And apparently, I’m riding solo dolo for a little bit there. So wait for Kevin to hop back in here. We’ll we’ll go ahead and look at another yet another guy that has the potential to underperform there a little bit. Now good. I was getting nervous. I was gonna have to really roll solo

Kevin 41:37
difficulties you were talking and all of a sudden just straight kicked me out like no warning. It just blacked out and then went back to my home screen. So I apologize. I’m not sure what’s going on.

Derek 41:48
Yeah, that’s, I don’t know this, this internet thing. I’ll tell you what, one of these days we’ll figure it out. Right. Well, Kevin, do you have any other underperformer over performs anything that you want to tell the folks about? I think

Kevin 42:03
one one guy that could be a sneaky over over performer is we’ll follow her again. We still have some of that health resistant stigma around him. But the games he missed last year weren’t health reasons right. He had the substance issue took the took the suspension finishes, I guess starts this season with being out week one to finish that up. And then he’s off and running. But right now he’s being drafted around wide receiver 30. Guys Will Fuller is going to finish above wide receiver 30 as long as he can remain healthy. He really did show last year that he could do that. So I think he’s a guy you can see him finish, you know, why do you see for 20 that’s well within his skill set. It’s just going to be if to uh, can continue to get the ball to him in the right ways like Deshaun Watson did for him last year.

Derek 42:56
Kevin, any other thoughts on over or underperform?

Kevin 43:01
No, I think that kind of sums up where we were we see everything here at the moment. Obviously as we get closer, as situations change, we’ll reevaluate and I’m sure some of these are going to shift up down sideways, whatever, but I think that sums everything up very nicely to start.

Derek 43:16
Yeah, always worthwhile keeping an eye on that ADP and seeing what that looks like especially as you get closer, because guys that you can get for tremendous value at this point become almost overdrafts, in some cases by the time you actually get into redraft season here. So keep an eye out on your adps and see what see what you can find there. Alrighty guys, well I do believe that that’s going to wrap up yet another episode of the good old boys fantasy football podcast. Make sure make sure that written up the socials Twitter twitch Instagram, Facebook at @GoodOldBoysFF. Make sure you head on over to the YouTube channel. good old boys fantasy football podcast YouTube channel, click the subscribe button there. We appreciate it. For Kevin. I’m Derek. Alex. We’ll be back very shortly. Have a good one. Be safe.