Subscribe to our newsletter!
Keeper Draft Strategy with Billy Whitt from Fantasy First Rounders Live
Intro 00:17
You’re listening to the good old boys fantasy football podcast. Now here’s your hosts, Kevin, Derek and Alex.
Derek 00:27
Alrighty, welcome in Ladies and gentlemen, to another episode of the good old boys fantasy football Podcast. I am Derek, and I’m joined as always, by your co host, Kevin and Alex. Guys, how are we doing tonight?
Alex 00:38
Well, I’m good. You guys can’t tell, because I have a light on me. But in this room that I’m in, it’s our spare bedroom. There’s a fan and it’s got four lights in different directions going. We recently had some other lights in the house burnout. So like any good former bachelor, you move the lights from the room that you don’t need them in to the area that you need them. Right? We can all relate, right? We can all relate. But now there is one working light in this fan. In this light, there’s one light and it’s just the one that shining on me. I did it on purpose, I made sure that it was the one that was shining this direction. So I could still do this. But it feels a little bit like I’m in an interrogation room because there’s just one solo light above me. The rest of the room is is covered in in half darkness. But I am happy to report we did go get new lights after I screwed it up the last time and got the wrong color lights. But now, after we’re done here, there will be full lights again in this room. That’s what’s going on in my life.
Kevin 01:52
You know, Alex, my wife still does that. And then you just
Alex 02:01
need a light there. What room? Don’t we need lights and let’s go get from there. Absolutely.
Kevin 02:08
Well, I had a very interesting day for a number of different reasons and none of which revolved around fantasy football. Except for I feel pretty good today I traded a rookie 108 pick for Austin eckler. I’ve done some deep diving on Austin eckler here in the past few days, and I’m liking him more and more and more. So I think I came out ahead on that deal. I’m okay with that one. Um, outside of that. I’m just I’m glad it’s Tuesday night. I’m glad to be talking football. I’m glad to be hanging out with y’all. Like my peeps have like mine and similar interests. Like this is the highlight of my week, guys, so don’t disappoint me.
Derek 02:52
All right, we’ll try our best not to. Yo guys. Thanks for tuning in everybody. If you haven’t done so already. Do us a favor hit the Follow button hit the subscribe button on the Twitter twitch or YouTube wherever you’re watching this right now. Thanks for tuning in. But we are joined by a very special guest tonight we’ve got Billy wit from the fantasy first rounders live coming to us Billy. How you doing?
Billy Whitt 03:16
Doing? Well guys? How are you? cannot complain. Awesome.
Kevin 03:22
Dude, we will have you anytime we love you guys. You know? Yeah, you
Alex 03:26
guys are awesome. Yeah, you were so fun on the on the draft special that we did. If you haven’t gone and seen that. Go and take a peek at that we were reacting real time to the draft picks. That was that was a lot of fun when we
Billy Whitt 03:39
did that. put that together.
Kevin 03:41
And for those of you who don’t know, while our friend, our fraternity brother, Christopher Pinto might be the mouthpiece of the fantasy first rounders. That’s silly here. Whitely is the brains and the guy that if you want shit done Billy’s the guy who gets shit done like he he implements all processes and brings it all together so as much as we love you guys we know you are the guy to go to if we need to get things done Billy and for that we appreciate you oh so much more.
Billy Whitt 04:18
I appreciate the kind words man appreciate
Billy Whitt Interview
Derek 04:21
that that was a lot of fun being able to hang out with you guys and definitely appreciate it all the all the help that you brought to the table on getting getting that thing ready to go and there was a lot of behind the scenes stuff that Billy was definitely involved with and help him bring to life so I cannot be overstated how valuable your your your input was on bringing that that draft special to life which was a ton of fun. Go check it out. It’s on the YouTube channel. But Billy you know we’ve we’ve had you on when we did the draft thing. But what are you what are you guys working on right now over there at at the fantasy first rounders live.
Billy Whitt 04:58
So right now a lot of our efforts First we’re going into just our weekly shows starting to rank some players talking about redraft as you guys are as well. And of course our mega League, the St. Jude bowl, our second year putting out event ons, we’re taking registrations working on payments, we’re going to be assigning the divisions here as soon as things heat up here a little bit. That’s the exciting part, figuring out who you might be in a league with so that’s kind of where we’re at. We’re gonna be doing some other formats as well. Ryan’s kind of masterminding a lot of that up but a big event. Come check us out. Play fantasy football with us.
Derek 05:32
Absolutely. And we have signed up for the Yes, thank you for the St. Jude’s bowl, enjoyed playing in that last year. And looking forward to it again this year. Make sure that you sign up there and see if you can come beat the boys and see what see what you can do.
Billy Whitt 05:47
That 12 $100 grand prize that we gave away last year, we donated a similar amount of money to St. Jude’s looking to expand on that so bigger prize money bigger donation, win win situation for sure. So hey, clone another pot. That’s a major major bragging rights when it’s something like that.
Alex 06:05
Can you let the people know how do you sign up for that? How do you get involved in that?
Billy Whitt 06:10
So we have a link that just has a registration once you register on that link, we can get our post here and send it over to you guys there and but fantasy first rounders check out our Twitter we have at pandan tweeted out all over the place so register there get your sleep ready to us your Twitter if you have it and we’ll hit you back with directions to get paid and get the solidified in your slot in the main event.
Kevin 06:36
Absolutely, guys, not only is it an awesome league and you guys do a fantastic job running it but like Derek said, it’s such a it’s for such a great cause excuse me as I trip over myself this evening, but they you know, with the proceeds or a portion of the proceeds right getting split half go to the winner for bragging rights, but the half that go to St. Jude’s and what they’re able to do for the struggling youth in America who are fighting you know, diseases that are unspeakable, right? No child should have to deal with with the stuff that these poor kids are. And it’s such a great cause. So kudos, kudos, us. Do you guys oh my goodness, guys. I promise I haven’t been drinking yet. And and for anybody who is interested, please sign up, you know, come come chat at us, you know, in the league can play against us battle for the 1200 bucks and most importantly, come give back to the kids because they are the future of our world. I’m going to change over here a little bit for fantasy football purposes. But we’ll get into our team of the week here in a little bit Billy but as we’ve gone through kind of this dynasty, rookie draft season, if you will, yeah. Who who are guy who’s the guy that you think is going way too early? And then on the flip side, who is the guy that you think keeps falling down boards that’s going way too late?
Billy Whitt 08:01
Well, I guess one that I’m really digging out a lot of my picks for later because either I traded back earlier or you know just placed higher last season but I like Trey Sermon a lot. I’ve been taking him kinda at the end of the first round. I just liked that opportunity in San Francisco at first maybe not a year one guy but just Shanahan taken him in the third round. I feel like is a is a pretty serious investment for a guy like Shana and it’s kind of played musical chairs that running back position. So I think that’s kind of a good outlook for his future there in San Fran has kind of Jeff Wilson Jr. Injury news came in and most of you know it’s kind of a gentleman guy and not somebody they’ve always just leaned on as a guarantee. So I feel like Superman has a real opportunity. Take that job. And you know, early in drafts, I was getting him a lot later than I have been lately he’s been that next running back kind of taken after javante Williams etn go pending on you know who’s who’s in your league. But that’s a guy that I’m really high on that he did start to climb so I can’t say he’s you know going too early necessarily but he is starting to get up there where maybes going a little bit early the height might be kind of starting to roll downhill pretty good on him. Even though I do like the situation a lot. And some of these receivers that we talked about Rashad Bateman, I feel like guys kinda were really high on him. A lot of people are underwhelmed about the Baltimore landing spot and I don’t think it’s necessarily going to be an issue. I think he brings a different element as that possession receiver type guy to Baltimore so I think he’s going to be extreme value where you’re getting him kind of mid late second round sometimes in some of these drafts as it as things start to shake out.
Kevin 09:38
Nothing that’s a good counterpoint right? Because I know I’ve been on the bandwagon of I dislike that landing spots so much that yes, I’m not gonna say that I’ve forgotten about Bateman. But every time I look at him, I go, dammit, I like the player a lot. I like his skill set. But man oh man, do I not trust Lamar Jackson to be able to do it. Anything with it? So it is, I appreciate that I think I’m probably not a little bit more maybe like a best ball see him in a game or two that he pops. But, you know, if you’re saying that he’s going to be the possession guy, then you know that. I’ll buy into that and maybe take a stab at him here there.
Derek 10:17
Yeah, Billy, you’re making me feel really good. They’re having just traded up for him in a dynasty draft going on there where I traded up into the 208 and was able to get him there just some good value. But yeah, he’s a guy that I, I have also passed on him quite a bit there. When you’re looking at the taking the late first early second, like that’s just too rich for me. But when he starts falling past that midpoint, the second, I think there’s a lot of value there. So I think you’re onto something
Billy Whitt 10:46
that’s just not a pass up on a guy that you know, is a good football player, say Hollywood, brown misses some time with a hamstring. He’s gonna be the big dog there. You might break out a little sooner than later if that type of situation happens.
Derek 10:58
Yeah, you very well could be on to something there. But, Billy, before we get moving on and talking about some NFL news, if you could let the listeners know where they can connect with you online and through the socials. How can they reach out and talk to you?
Billy Whitt 11:12
Yeah, just find me on Twitter at V with two, four. I’m available there all the time. Talk football at me, DM me, whatever. You got some leagues that you’ve got a spot available, hit me up. I’m joining about everything I can right now trying to get out there and meet more people and see what I can’t win.
Derek 11:28
Absolutely, Billy just jumped into a vampire league that we just got rolled in there. So that’ll be a lot of fun. And we’ll bring y’all some updates on that. We’ve also got a dynasty league that he’s in. So I’ve been liking your draft strategies. It’s been been a lot of fun drafting with the NC and how how you roll through some of those things. Yeah,
Billy Whitt 11:46
I’ve been cussing you guys for weeks.
NFL News June 1st 2021
Derek 11:50
I’m sure. But let’s go ahead and head on over and we’ll talk about some NFL news. And again, not a lot of crazy things happening the right now it’s a 100 days until NFL kicks off. So we’re t minus 100 days and counting. June 1 is today. So that means that things should be happening here in the next couple of days when we start talking salary cap and I know that Alex and Kevin and myself are looking forward to something that we hope and we have been hinting at over the last few episodes there. Todd Gurley this past week worked out for the lions. Corey Davis had a minor shoulder strain in some otas Urban Meyer came out to came out saying that he’s ready to use Tim Tebow as Taysom Hill 2.0 down there in Jacksonville and burrow was spotted throwing today had some long passes. He was completing to your T Hagen’s and brand. Tyler Boyd there. And you know, the drama still continues with both Julio Jones and some trade rumors happening there. And the drama still continues over there in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers. But guys, what are your thoughts on the news?
Kevin 13:07
There’s a whole lot of smoke screens going on. So many smoke screens and I think we talked about this a bit last week to like, you know, urban ready to use. TiVo is taysom Well, no shit Sherlock, like you signed him as a tight end. Yes, he can throw the ball a little bit but the fact that he’s played some NFL quarterback, you’re gonna have special packages gadget plays whatever work teams are going to have to be ready for for Tim Tebow if he makes the roster to throw the ball so it does like you know, it’s gonna be one of those weird sets right where you’re gonna have etn out wide Tim Tebow under shotgun and then you’re gonna have Trevor Lawrence is like the wing back or something. I mean, Urban Meyer is going to come up with some crazy stuff but it’s not going to be part of their every, you know, their their base package here. So of course it is my boy Todd Gurley. I love Todd Gurley. I hate that he’s always injured and that he has these knees. I hope he’s able to find a team and and at least continue his NFL career. It sucks that it was cut short due to some bad knees and some arthritis but I would love to see him pair up with DeAndre swift again to Detroit just for nostalgia sake I think that’d be pretty cool. So the best of luck to him and hopefully it works out
Alex 14:33
Yeah, so obviously the the the smoke screens that are coming out of Jacksonville I mean, Urban Meyer has been head coach down there for what, not even six months yet and we are seeing just a masterclass and toying with the media being done by by Urban Meyer. He’s got he’s got etn working as a wide receiver everybody latched on to that he signs Tim Tebow. He says I’m going to Taysom Hill Tim Tebow he is just putting on a masterclass and Truth Truth be told he’s getting people talking about him. He was on a W the other night I saw his office getting destroyed in a fake wrestling thing. So it was he is just doing everything he can to get relevancy again in Jacksonville right like that’s what he’s doing he’s trying to get Jacksonville to be relevant again. And and sometimes you got to take take a different path to go about doing that especially when you have nothing to show for it on the field because there’s no games yet so that is definitely the interesting one guys I am starting to cool a little bit on the Rogers to Denver and maybe it’s just a self defense mechanism because I don’t want to get my hopes up and then for it to not happen. But I’m starting to cool a little bit on that I’m not so certain as certain as I was on draft night that it was going to happen. I am not so certain that it’s going to happen now I think the asking price is going to be too much even though I don’t think that there is too much when it comes to giving up whatever you need to do to get Aaron Rodgers but I do think that that with the position of power that Green Bay is in that I’m more in the camp of either Rogers plays in Green Bay or doesn’t play at all that’s the camp that I’m in I don’t see him working I don’t see a deal getting worked out where he’s playing for a different team next year so hopefully I’m wrong. But again, I’m doing the defense mechanism of keeping my expectations low. That way it doesn’t take much to exceed them
Derek 16:45
that just so you don’t have to have a an epic breakup letter here in July with the team already
Alex 16:50
the pen has already been dipped in the ink we are we are grabbing the parchment because if we just run out drew Locke and or Teddy Bridgewater oh boy
Billy Whitt 17:03
Yeah, I kind of feel like Denver would be the only real landing spot for him still just with what it’s going to require to to acquire Aaron Rodgers. But yeah, it does seem to be like things are kind of calming down maybe it’s kind of an odd situation where it doesn’t show protease. Neither do any of the wide receivers. You know, it’s kind of a stand against the organization. Just kind of feels like things might just end up working out just fine just because of the situation kind of always has they’ve been a strike for a while. You know, Aaron Rodgers what’s up with the Packers but I’m with you, Kevin on, on on girly. I love that guy. I’m really upset. His career really got cut short and could have been, you know, one of the greats to do it, especially from a fantasy football perspective. I would like to see him end up in Detroit, but it does make me a little upset with my DeAndre swift shares. Because the Jamal Williams edition kind of makes you feel like he’s already got a kept receiving, you know, portion of the game because you’re always gonna play a past kitchen back roll to some point when they brought them in for a reason, I guess. And you know Gurley is not going to do that. But is he going to take gold and snipe a touchdown or three? That’s the difference in a guy that could be, you know, top 15 the you know, maybe maybe scotian into the top 25 that is a bit concerning. Not that we’ll get a ton of work. I don’t I don’t imagine but might just be the right word to put a thorn in Swift side. It’s kind of I don’t know, unfortunate, but I would like to see him catch on somewhere. play a few years next to somebody that can help them stay healthy player, maybe make a playoff run. I could see him having a big roll a big game sometime. He is Todd Gurley. You know what I mean? So that’s interesting. But the Urban Meyer Tim Tebow thing. You know, I see him throwing three jump passes to Trevor Lawrence throughout the season, maybe in that Taysom Hill role. But I don’t know. TiVo seems like the distraction to keep like to your point, Alex, the media puppet. No, we’re not talking about the number one overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence. So he’s doing a good job letting that kid kind of sit down there and peace right now. With all the pressure on him. Doesn’t seem like we’re even realizing that they do have that number one quarterback and I think that is a masterclasses you sent out to the media. Just keeping them over here while we let this kid do his thing. It’s kind of cool. Absolutely.
Keeper Draft Strategy
Derek 19:24
Absolutely. Guys, any other thoughts on the news? Okay, let’s let’s go ahead and move on over to some keeper strategy. And so kind of some you know, peel back the curtain a little bit and you know, some insight as to where this kind of came from. We we played in a pirate type of League last year, when you guys did that allowed for, for a for the winning team to pirate a player off of the off of another team and Yeah, you ended up with with the teams competing for championships and making the playoff rounds with some very stacked teams. And so I sent a sent a picture of the roster over to Alex and Kevin this weekend and asked Who are you keeping out of this till you can only to keep two players? Who are you keeping? And Alex immediately, he said, You know Josh Allen Kyler Murray and I go well, but CMC is on this roster, while superflex and that kind of stuff, which leads us into the kind of give you that backdrop to lead us into this, this question of your keeper strategy, how do you look and work? And how do you ultimately plan for that coming through? You know, how do you determine who you’re keeping in the league? Does the position matter? Does ADP matter for you? Does positional difference matter to you? Or does a How does a draft penalty on the keeper change all of that for you? And I’m just curious to get your thoughts. What do you guys think on how to go about managing a keeper league?
Alex 21:06
So since I was the one who offered up not only this, this conversation point, but my my instant opinion, when you sent the text of the first time, I mean, you first off, the roster that you sent us is, is as if you were playing in a league by yourself. I mean, that’s how loaded this roster was which essentially, you know, because of the rules of this league, you were able to essentially play in a league by yourself because you kept winning, he kept poaching, the best player from the team that you just beat. So you essentially did get a super team. So to preface this whole thing with with this specific question that was posed, you had an embarrassment of riches. And that’s not often the case for people when they are making their keeper strategy. But I fired off right away and said, You know why? Why is this even a question? You know, it’s a, it’s a super flexibly, you have Kyler, Murray and Josh Allen as quarterbacks? Why wouldn’t you keep the guys that have that, that will get you the most points, because in my mind, and the way that I approach fantasy football, is I want the guys that are going to score me the most points, right. That’s what fantasy football is, there’s no defense. So you want the guys that are going to give you the most points. And in on that roster. Kyler and Josh Allen, we’re going to be the guys that would get you the most points that was the solid. We knew you know what to expect out of that. Now injuries and everything happened. That’s that’s part of fantasy football as it is. But on paper, those two were going to be the most point getters. So I said, Keep those guys that’s that’s the way and and Derek came back with the great question of why, you know, am I am I playing for points? Or am I playing for positional value, because you have you have guys on there you have CMC, who is going to be you know, on paper, at least if he gets back to form. He is head and shoulders above every other running back in the league. You have a Travis Kelsey on that roster who is head and shoulders above every other tight end and the Li maybe not quite so much if kiddo is healthy for an entire season. But still, that’s a it’s a tight end, that’s going to score more points than anybody else given the recent past in that position group, but it’s still not going to be more points than what a Kyler or Josh Allen is going to get you because it is a super flex league. And quarterbacks are always so valuable in Super flex leagues. So I was I was very quick when it comes to in this league. When it comes to positional value versus points. I’m always going to chase points. That’s what I that’s how I approach fantasy football, I’m chasing points because I want the most points. And it may not be on a week by week basis. But over the course of a season, the most points are generally going to lead to success. So that’s where I’m at with it. Now when it comes to draft penalties, those are definitely conversations that you’re going to need to have just with yourself, bounce off ideas with other people because if you’re talking about a guy who is you know, guaranteed no doubt or first rounder and your draft penalty is you know, the first round well then that’s a one for one. But if you’re talking about a guy who maybe you drafted late and then the draft penalty is where you got him. For instance, if we would have been playing in our home league and we would have had draft penalties. I would have had Carson Wentz his rookie year and I got him in the very I he was the very last pick of the draft or my very last pick of the draft. So that draft penalty wouldn’t have hurt at all. If I if that was what the draft penalty was was you lose the pic that you the the round Pick that you took the guy with. So those are definitely things that you’ll have to weigh in consider. But for me personally, if it’s points versus positional value and for this super flexibly, it was points. I’m going to go points.
Billy Whitt 25:21
Yeah, I’m been pondering this since we talked about a pre show here and kind of went back and just looked at like what Christian McCaffrey his numbers really were like, you know, a couple years out now, after missing him for most of last year. So kind of some of that’s worn off a little bit, that high foot and 2019 and here’s the RB one, he was like 480 Fantasy points a little over 480 basis points, which would have been RB one by 160 Fantasy points. Last season over 10 points per game over Alvin Kamara season long, which is crazy numbers. Josh Allen, To put that in perspective was QB won last year and had just over 500 points you’re talking about within 20 points of the number one quarterback so really that positional value sets CMC apart so for me, I’d be flipping the coin between Josh Allen and Kyler Murray as it both right up there and especially dynasty quarterback, similar upside somewhat guys, it’s really preference splitting some hairs lotor town around them the works that not a lot of negatives about those guys. So flipping a coin between them. Maybe you get lucky in one lands back in the draft. But for me CMC was one of those quarterbacks puts you in a boat where no one can match your running back production. And you can you can supplement a lesser quarterback with Josh out later and I think being a really really good spot and always have a week to week advantage at that RB one position.
Kevin 26:47
I tend to lean with the direction that Billy’s looking at too. I just in a keeper league. I’m points obviously you need points to win. But I do like that positional difference and having Christian McCaffrey on your team gives you that difference from the rest of the position because while we all have an idea of what you know, the top 10 for running backs is going to be as we saw last year, it doesn’t always shake out like that. And in a season where now we have an extra game. There’s guys doing some extra things. We’re going to more running back by committee type looks by these NFL teams at least at least to some extent. Christian McCaffrey still owns that backfield, really all to himself? Yes, they drafted Chuba Hubbard but there’s nothing saying that he’s going to be anything more at least this first season, then, you know, come in for 10 snaps a game as a guy just to speld McCaffrey and give them that extra bit of rest. So I liked the McCaffrey pick. And really for the second keeper, I think a lot of that’s your, your, the way this team is constructed, especially because you’re able to poach so many guys, it’s how you want to set it up, Derek honestly, or anybody would want to set it up in this situation. There’s, I don’t fault anybody for wanting to go one of the two quarterbacks. I don’t fault anybody for wanting to go Travis Kelsey, because I think in this league, specifically, there’s a tight end premium attached to it. If I remember correctly, so having that tight end premium attached to it does elevate Travis Kelsey, because he’s guaranteed to have 1000 yards and six or seven touchdowns. I mean, even without the Titan premium last year, he finished his essentially wide receiver number four. That was Travis Kelsey. And so to get that production out of your tight end, set you above in that mark, so I don’t see anything wrong in that. And then you still have a Tyree kill type to be able to trot out there. If you wanted to number one receiver. I wouldn’t fault anybody for that. I might scratch my head a little bit. I don’t know if that’d be my first go to but if you want to take one of the two quarterbacks or Kelsey, or tyreke i don’t know that i or Jonathan Taylor. He’s also on this roster. Right so if you wanted to top five running backs to start and then just worry about your quarterbacks and start picking quarterbacks up throughout the season. I’m fine with that one too, because no one will have a better backfield than a team that starts the season with CMC and Jonathan Taylor and that positional group will set you so far above everybody else you can deal with early season deficiencies and other areas. And then, as you’re able to pick players off due to winning Right, then you can just, oh, I need another receiver or I need this tight end or whatever. Because with only being able to save to every single week, there’s a lot of guys who are out there that are going to be changing rosters. So there’s a lot of different ways you could go, but CMC is my base one.
Derek 30:19
Okay, so that’s, that’s one of those two, that this roster, right? A lot of times when you’re looking at keepers, and that kind of stuff, you really got maybe three or four guys tops that you’re really going to be looking at. And then some other things factor into it. I like this team for this discussion, because of the fact that you have, you know, an elite tier player at every position, and you get a positional difference maker across the board. And only being able to keep two of them kind of highlights the, the strategy and play here instead of more, so I’m taking this guy because of the fact that he’s going to be better, or so on so forth. In this one, you’re really going to be giving up a an elite tier position difference maker at every level dependent no matter which way you go. So there’s not a singular route to go there. And so that’s one of those I find, you tend to get some of the best discussion and some of the best questions and thought processes going on things that aren’t just, you know, kind of a gimme kind of answer a slam dunk answer. But looking at all of that, right, like when there’s not a draft penalty for it. Polar Knights love it. We’ve got the evolution of beards. So this is awesome. I really like that comment. that’s a that’s a fun one right there.
Alex 31:41
This was supposed to go away today, but I got busy. So
Derek 31:45
I’m glad you know, now it highlights this so that you polar nights. that’s a that’s a fun question. They’re fun comment there. But yeah, when you start looking at that, right, the other thing that comes into play is how much does somebody ADP kind of come into the conversation there as well. So for instance, in a league where you don’t have a draft penalty in account there, how much is what somebody ADP come into the decision making of who you’re gonna keep?
Kevin 32:18
I think it has to play some right, because there’s guys where you can gamble more on right like you have, you have Diggs Robinson and tyreke, where you’re starting wide receivers to end the season, right, like so you can sit back and go, Okay, I can, I can say that if I really want to go wide receiver in my first two rounds of picks, since there’s no penalty, you’ll end up with one or two of those three guys, depending on what you want to do. Same thing with the quarterback right, like there’s a run of quarterbacks that might go but for your first two, if you’re already set at running back, and then you’re looking at quarterback, you can still get a top 10 quarterback in, in all likelihood there at the back end of the first round. And then follow that up with the receiver. Maybe it is a Travis Kelsey that you can turn around and pick back up there for you know, a third technical round evaluation and and still set yourself apart. So for me, I think ATP does have something to do with it. Because you know, CMC won’t be there, you know, Kyler Murray won’t be there in a super flex, Josh Allen probably won’t be there in a super flex. But after that. Kelsey might be there depending on what guys want to do. That’s possible if they want to try and get quarterback early as most superflex leagues do, right? quarterback quarterback quarterback. So Kelsey might fall to you back there. Tyree kill might fall to you back there. So there’s guys that you don’t necessarily have to keep. Because you know where you’re drafting and you can take an educated gamble. It’s not a certainty but an educated gamble that if I really liked this guy, there’s a much better chance that he will fall to me where I’m drafting. Then Christian McCaffrey, who will go in the top four, no matter your draft format.
Billy Whitt 34:21
I think another thing too, is kind of knowing your league and what guys are being thrown back in the pool. So you kind of tell like if there’s a lot of running backs available, you keep a couple running backs and now all of a sudden, you’re able to kind of take those receivers that are going to end up last in there and able to build that roster kind of a round ahead, knowing what you want to do and as everybody started with super receivers, that’s when you go ahead and start sniping the running backs that are getting left behind as guys try to put their roster together so I think that’s a big advantage if you know what guys like to do how they like to build the rosters, guys, you play home leagues when you you know you know at the sixth pick what this guy does every single year. He It kind of helps you make that decision, who you might be willing to throw back and not. And to Kevin’s point, then you can kind of make an educated guess on what’s going to land you at the end of that first round. And you might end up getting like you said, A Kelsey or Tyree kill right back, you know, Alan Robinson, he might be there in the second round for even with if someone’s down on the quarterback situation, they’re so really good chance you end up with most of this team back without really pushing too hard to draft if you know your draft.
Derek 35:29
Absolutely. So, you know, we hinted at it a little bit and not really believe you’re the point here, but I do want to get to get some thoughts on. So say, say when the draft penalty comes into play there and for everybody just kind of set the set the terms on draft penalty, right, in this conversation will be a draft penalty would give you that person back on your roster at the draft pick, you drafted him at the previous year. So for instance, if you took you know, Jonathan Taylor in a in a redraft last year in the fourth round, right, you would get them in the fourth round type of thing. And that that’s how we’ll kind of set the stage for this conversation. But that’s where I’m asking the question is, how does that draft penalty really change? Where you where you look at for keepers? Or is it? Is it one that you’re going with best players knowing that that might be a first round type of guy? Or is it one that you’re going to build the value further on? And then try and make that up with what’s left? out there?
Kevin 36:34
For me, that’s roster dependent. And again, situational to each individual team. Now, if we take this team that you’ve kind of shown us in this pirate league that that you did last year, you know, yeah, cuz you probably got digs in the seventh.
Derek 36:57
Maybe I was late
Kevin 36:58
last year, but you got digs pretty late. Well, you know, he showed with Alan, heck, he’s contending top five receivers. So there’s a lot of value there in the seventh round. So that’s not a bad deal to get a top five player in any position in the seventh round. So that’s, that’s a spot where then yeah, that makes sense. You just saved your seventh round pick. And so yeah, you might take McCaffrey, because he’s your first round pick, you have digs locked up, he’s your seventh round pick. And then you can build the team within and, and really see where it’s gonna go. Because a lot of guys won’t. Maybe they didn’t have the value, or they don’t care about the value as much they know that they want, you know, Player A and B, and they don’t care if that’s their second, third or fourth, you know, first and second, or whatever that breakdown is for him. They just, they like this guy they think he’s going to produce and they don’t weigh the value side of things. So that’s absolutely a way to gain a strategic advantage is Carrie Diggs over if you got him in the seventh hell, you’re not picking up any anything else remotely close to that production level, in the seventh round. By the time you get down there anyway, so you’ve essentially won that round of the draft. You know, if you feel like Christian McCaffrey is the best overall player, then you won the first round. So that’s how you kind of set yourselves apart when you’re looking at round penalties for these draft picks. If I keep this guy here, do I win that round? No matter who else is taken there?
Alex 38:35
Yeah, I think that’s, that’s a great way to look at it. And I think what what this really boils down to is doing your homework beforehand. And and really, I mean, honestly, if we’re talking about is it’s Billy’s Point of No, your draft room? No, the guys No, no, the teams that are in the league, know what they are looking at what they might value over other other things. I mean, here’s, here’s a great, great example, in our home league. I was going to get Carson Wentz at all costs. You know, I drafted Carson Wentz his rookie year in our home league up until this year, there was no draft penalty for that. But you know, that would have been the draft penalty for that would have been the last pick you know, the last round pick right as I said, but I was going to hang on to Carson Wentz for as long as I possibly could for no matter what so that was that was just something he was my guy right that’s my guy and and we all have it we all have our guy right? And we’re gonna do whatever we can we might reach a little bit we might, you know, hang on to somebody that we probably shouldn’t because he’s our guy. But I think when it when it comes down to is everybody else in the league kind of knew that right? So they knew like oh, I might be able to snipe Carson Wentz off And then I might be able to fleece Alex for a trade later on, you know like that that might be that the case and I made it known it was my own doing I made it known that Carson Wentz was going to be my guy, but but really know the room that you’re in, take a look at what the position positional value is. And to Kevin’s point, you know, you’re not going to make sure that you make sure that you win the round, right, like make sure that you win the round of the draft. And if you get a Stefon Diggs in the seventh round, like that’s not going to happen this year Stefon Diggs is not going to fall to the seventh round in any draft this year. So if you have him as a seventh round, or even a fourth or fifth round, really. Yeah, that’s not gonna, you’re not gonna get him at that value. And I always go back and think about guys, like, you know, those free agents that you picked up, right, that turned into dude’s classic example, last year, James Robinson, right. Nobody drafted James Robertson. And nobody even knew who he was until after week one, unless you listen to this show. And so nobody knew about James Robinson. That’s a freebie. That’s a free agent, that’s not going to cost you a draft pick anywhere. Now, that’s not going to work this year, because obviously, it’s a new regime down there. And they’ve got new talent down there. James Robinson, it doesn’t look like he’s going to have the same role that he had last year. But those are also things that you’ll have to consider is it you know, free agents that turned into, you know, rb one or wide receiver one or whatever, you know, these dudes that exploded onto the scene last year? Another classic case from a few years back, Adam feeling, you know, people weren’t taking Adam Thielen, you know, and then he explodes onto the scene. And his 1000 yard receiver leads the league and touchdowns, whatever it was. But that’s a freebie. Right? And that’s, that’s a wide receiver one. And most people got him as a free agent in the first couple weeks of the draft or of the of the season, excuse me. So those are always you know, bonus players that you know, hey, it’s not going to cost me a draft pick. I’ve already got a guy that’s top top player, top positional player. Those are things that you’ll have to consider as well.
Billy Whitt 42:15
Yeah, I agree on this on the same point. The first thing I want to do is look at my roster and see Is there any guys that stand out is way bigger value than where you got to like if you’re getting you got Stefon Diggs in the sixth or seventh round last year, that stands out that’s a guy that’s gonna go late first, early second, round wide receiver three last year, the Josh Allen Buffalo Bills hype going on. That’s one of those ones where Okay, so again, you did your homework, like Alex said, that’s gonna pay off for you. Now you get to keep the fun digs forever as a sixth round pick, because you know, you did your homework and knew that the value was there. And also like those undrafted guys you get you know, that’s something that would cost you a draft pick Alex’s point that’s exactly what you want to work the waiver wire especially in some of these leagues, you know, don’t sit back and camp on some of these guys that you are high on, do your research, look at the numbers and see some of these guys opportunities are better than players that might be better than them. This is fantasy football. You know, you got to look at the numbers stats when ships big thing we preach on the fantasy first rounders and guys like James Robinson, or why stats when ships there’s no reason why James Robinson should have been a better running back than Leonard Fournette. But hey, look how it worked out. Leonard Fournette ends up in Tampa Bay, James Robinson, the top 10 back and people are still high on him with Travis etn in that backfield. So, for me, the first thing I’m doing is trying to see if there’s anybody that just stands out is like whoa, you know, takes me back to a cream pot coming out Spencer Ware got hurt while I was at the draft table, I got the notification and I’m like, you know, I’ll go ahead this 12 round pick and pick this kid cream pot that I know nothing about, you know, had that been a keeper League, people would still be pissed at me because I’d still have Kareem Hunt at a 12 round draft pick costs. So, you know, look at that value, because everybody has to throw guys back. Everybody’s looking at value. If you don’t lose your first round pick, you still may end up with a Dalvin Cook or Christian McCaffrey because somebody else may have a Stefon Diggs type in the sixth round, that’s a better value for them. So don’t be afraid to keep guys with lesser values. There was some big dogs back in the pond and and see how things shake out for you next year.
Derek 44:18
Yeah, yeah, no, absolutely. I like the like the takes, and like the discussion there. I think everybody, everybody hit on that very, very well. unless anybody has some other burning thoughts on some keeper strategy.
Alex 44:33
I will say it is a good idea to keep Alvin Kamara that that is a good idea. And to not let him off of your roster. I know a guy who, who made that decision. And it did not work out very well for him in the short term, but he did win the fantasy football championship in that league last year. So I mean, things happen.
Derek 45:00
That took that took a full two seasons. By the way, that guy that Alex is talking about. He’s on the YouTube channel. One of the very first videos that ever went on to the YouTube channel. Go back there watch it while you’re there, click the subscribe button. Absolutely fantastic interview with that guy that Alex knows already guys. Well, I do believe that that’s going to wrap up yet another episode of the good old boys fantasy football podcast. big thank you to Billy wet for coming on and being our guest tonight. If you haven’t done so, give him a follow he’s over there on the Twitter at B wit 24. But guys, that’s gonna wrap up this episode. If you haven’t done so already, make sure you hit us up on our socials Twitter Instagram, Facebook twitch at @GoodOldBoysFF, the website goodoldboysff.com and hit us up with a subscribe on the YouTube channel. The good old boys fantasy football podcast YouTube channel for Kevin and Alex. I’m Derek Have a good one. Be safe.