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Los Angeles Chargers 2021 Fantasy Football Analysis
Intro 00:05
You’re listening to the good old boys fantasy football podcast. Now here’s your host, Kevin, Derek and Alex.
Derek 00:13
Alrighy! Welcome in ladies and gentlemen to another episode of the good ol boys fantasy football Podcast. I am Derek and I am joined as always by your co host, Kevin Alex, guys, how are we doing tonight?
Kevin 00:22
Good, good man, waiting to break down the LA Chargers for everybody. Looking forward to it as we hit up our team of the week here so I’m ready to get on it. How are you guys?
Alex 00:33
This is a pretty exciting team this last year I mean, yeah, they weren’t you know, great. But they had some surprises some some nice fantasy pieces. And obviously the the biggest was the quarterback they got thrust into playing remember when we all thought Tyrod Taylor was going to be the weak one starter and then the doctor tried to kill him with the needle. So yeah, that’s a that’s, that’s been kind of a fun team to analyze and, and a good team fantasy wise as well, with some interesting pieces on it.
Derek 01:03
Absolutely. And the Chargers are a like you said a fun team to analyze with lots of great pieces. They are changing over some some coaching, though. So new head coach, new offensive coordinator. Lots of changes happening here. So it’ll be interesting to see how that comes to play. But let’s go ahead and hop on into it. And we’ll start where we always do. That’s the running back room. And they’ve got Austin Ekeler coming back right miss a lot of time last week due to some injury. He finished running back 29 last year, had 116 rushes 530 yards rushing, one rushing touchdown, 54 receptions on 65 targets for initial 403 and two through the air. Guys, your thoughts on Austin Ekeler.
Austin Ekeler RB Los Angeles Chargers 2021
Kevin 01:50
I think Austin Ekeler is a guy that you are very confident in as you’re running back to specifically in PPR formats. If you are still playing a standard format, Austin Ekeler is not a guy that I’m wowed by some better pieces that you’re going to be able to pick up in the first two to three rounds. Sorry, I just dropped my case in the first two to three rounds, that is not an Austin Ekeler. But if it’s PPR format, if it’s anything like his 2019 season, you figure those receptions are going to come they’re going to be there. And that does help lift his floor and elevate his see his ceiling all in that same regard as far as volume goes. So solid RB two, I’m thinking probably around running back 15 in redraft formats, with some potential low in RB one upside depending on how the Chargers play out the 2020 season.
Alex 02:51
Yeah, I think the big thing that a lot of fantasy football fans are going to keep their eye on is kind of how this offseason works with the Chargers, the new coaching staff, and how they might want to implement some of these running backs because they’ve got options. Clear i think is obviously the best of the options. But that doesn’t take away from the other ones as well. I think with Ekeler. Last year, I think a lot of people thought he was going to be in that RB one category, I think I think I was in that camp where I was pretty high on Austin Ekeler. And I thought that he could be a guy that you could rely on in that RB one situation. And it just didn’t pan out the way that I think we would have hoped. And we didn’t really realize at the time that the Chargers had a really good passing quarterback with Justin Herbert. When it was going to be the Tyrod Taylor show, I thought I think we all kind of thought that it was going to be a little bit more run heavy. Check down passes would be a lot more of a thing, the easiest option path of least resistance, which is what Tyrod Taylor quarterback team looks like. So I think there was a little bit high expectations, but don’t let that be. Don’t let that recency bias get into your head because I still think as you said, Kevin, he’s he’s very serviceable. And he’s got good upside with a low or a high floor. So Austin Ekeler is somebody that I will keep my eye on. And he plays in a pretty, I guess I wouldn’t say favorable in terms of defensive division, but there’s a chance that he can get involved because there could be some shootouts and some necessary, you know, some needs to get him more involved as games progress on with some pretty good offenses in that division.
Derek 04:45
Yeah, I would agree with you. I think that Yeah, he’s a guy that that a lot of people aren’t going to necessarily be super high on looking at the straps and as a guy that you’re going to be able to get a little bit of a value when it comes to This season, I think he’s a guy that you’re going to be able to put on. Definitely as a running back to potentially even a running back three. And a lot of cases, you look at last year, right, he was taken as the 13th running back overall off the board, which put him in that kind of, you know, early to mid second round type of position. And the folks that took him and him missing time. Definitely kind of hurt some of that. And for the folks that just tend to look at what the last season tailed. And don’t capture the full narrative on that one. You’ll also see this is draft beat his draft stock being driven down in his ADP, I think you’ll probably see him closer to probably running back 20 to 24, somewhere in that range off the board. So moving back a full half to maybe even another full round on that one. So if he’s a guy that you can pick up, you know, tail end of the second somewhere into the third, that’s probably going to be some pretty good value for you. Because if you’re playing in that PPR Sal format, he will outperform that ADP for you. Definitely guy that has some explosive playability and is one that Justin Herbert does like looking to it, and in that check down roll, especially when he came back off of the injury. He saw a couple of different games on where he was seeing 799 16 targets in a six game stretch. So he’s got the ability to really put points on the board, especially in a PPR style. Let’s go ahead and move on over to Justin Jackson. Justin Jackson had some fill in work this last year finished as running back 68 before getting a little banged up himself there 59 rushes 270 yards, zero rushing touchdowns, 19 receptions on 24 targets for an additional 173 through the air. Any thoughts on Justin Jackson?
Justin Jackson RB Los Angeles Chargers 2021
Kevin 06:52
I think Justin Jackson provides a a decent relief valve. I’m not blown away by Justin Jackson, I think the running back which we haven’t talked about yet is probably going to serve him as the clear number two. So for me, Justin Jackson doesn’t hold much value in any redraft format, because I think Josh Kelly’s gonna, like I said, Take that roll over. So in case of injury, you know, keep him keep an eye on him as far as a waiver wire pickup, but he’s not being put on my draft board the way it sits.
Alex 07:29
So I would say if you’re drafting him, you’re doing something wrong, even in like a super, super deep league. Maybe look elsewhere, the guy’s got 29 games in three seasons. He hasn’t proven that he can be that he can play a full season yet. And he’s got 13, seven and nine over the course of those three seasons, so that that’s concerning to me. And we just, he hasn’t done enough to show me that he’s worth spending a draft pick on. But that being said, if you do have shares of Ekeler or Joshua Kelly that we’ll talk about somebody that you will want to keep your eye on because he will be that backup that handcuff you know in the in the least sense of of the word, but he will be a guy that if you want to maintain some of that Chargers running game, then he’s a guy that you’ll want to have your eye on on the waiver wire.
Derek 08:27
He’s a guy too, that could be an interesting DFS type of look for in a waiver wire kind of guy for next year. He inevitably typically has one game a year in which he kind of pops a little bit and you know, we saw that this last year and week eight where he really kind of got the bulk of the work there. But he’s a guy that you know, you’re not you’re not going to be really having to fight for in any of your leagues to pick up through the draft but is a guy that you know, worth keeping an eye on from a waiver wire standpoint, should something happen to an Austin Ekeler or Joshua Kelly. But I think you guys are right to hitting the nail on the head that Joshua Kelly is probably the better guy to look at here. Let’s go ahead and move on to him. He finished his running back 62 last year 111 rushes 354 yards, two rushing touchdowns, 2023 receptions on 23 targets for an additional 148 through the air. Your thoughts on Joshua Kelly,
Joshua Kelley RB Los Angeles Chargers 2021
Alex 09:26
like that 100% catch rating. That’s nice.
Kevin 09:31
I think we’re Kelly is going to frustrate some Ekeler owners is around the goal line. I think that when they’re going to be inside the five and it’s not going to be just a dump off from equity, run it in off a screen or something like that. So they showed that they were trying to get pieces of that put together around Joshua Kelly last year. It didn’t quite work out the way they hoped for to begin with but they still gave him the opportunities. And I expect that to continue. So that’s where the buyers of Austin Ekeler are going to become frustrated. Yes, he will get you those PPR stats. He will be kind of that you know that point. You know the point monster in the backfield, if you will. But Joshua Kelly, I do think is going to find himself into the end zone enough times to really stick in the craw of Ekeler owners, and limits some of that ceiling with all the receptions to equity.
Alex 10:33
Yeah, so it, it’s hard to judge a guy as a rookie running back on a pandemic season where there was no offseason program where he was learning through zoom calls and didn’t get a training camp. And, you know, it’s, it’s, it’s really difficult to judge a guy on that. That being said, he played 14 games, he was able to find the end zone a couple times, as you said, Derek, and, and I think that that only continues as he gets more comfortable with the system more comfortable, you know, playing the pro game, he’s good size. I mean, he’s, he’s 511 to 12 is what they have him listed at. And that’s, that’s good enough to get, you know, to be a little bit of a bruiser down there towards the goal line. It’s not, you know, certainly not the 240 or, you know, six two guys that you’d see that that would be almost automatic down that way. But you know, that it’s still a good, good size to be effective in the goal line area. And I think, Kevin, to your point, I think that’s that’s what is going to be an issue for Ekeler fans is that Joshua Kelly will get a majority of those carries when they get down inside the plus 10. And that’s that’s going to be an issue for Ekeler fans. But for those who take Joshua Kelly and I don’t know that you I don’t know that you handcuff yourself Ekeler and Kelly because I think you’re gonna drive yourself mad if you do that. Because I think that they’re gonna have similar point. totals week in and week out.
12:07
I you know, I think
Alex 12:07
Ekeler probably has the edge there. Don’t get me wrong, but I think that you’re gonna drive yourself mad because Kelly might sneak into the end zone a week that Ekeler does it and you’re gonna you’re gonna be upset about that. So I don’t know that you handcuffs that it’s necessarily a handcuff situation. I could be 1,000% wrong on that. But I would I would take Joshua Kelly shares without having Austin Ekeler shares
Derek 12:35
it with Kelly, I don’t know that I’m going to look to handcuff him with an Austin Ekeler simply from the standpoint that typically when it comes to like a handcuff strategy for me anyway, I don’t look at doing a handcuff on a running back unless they’re, you know, an elite tier running back a guy that is a pure Bell cow in the system. You know, a Zeke with a Tony Pollard, a Dalvin Cook with a Alexander Madison. You know, those types of guys where if they go down or something like that you have enough volume, that even the handcuff guy that doesn’t necessarily have the talent up there is still going to get enough run room, where he’s going to be able to point himself pretty well on that one. But I think Joshua Kelly is kind of a sneaky play from a standpoint that he is going to siphon off a lot of those touchdowns down low. Yeah, really kind of see it, where you’re going to see Austin Ekeler is kind of that inside that or you know, the 20 to 20 type of back. And you’ll see Joshua Kelly kind of inside when they start getting in the redzone and need just those few yards to put them in and let them try and power something through there because he is a little bit better built, you know, a little bit a little bit more of that bruiser than what Austin Ekeler is, but I think I think you hit the nail on the head that yet. He is going to frustrate some fantasy players out there from a standpoint of what he’s going to do to Austin Ekeler and fantasy value for next year.
Kevin 14:03
Yeah. So between Ekeler and well, between Ekeler Kelly and Justin Jackson last year, five total touchdowns. That’s it. So I do think that like with all things right, it comes back to the to the meeting like it, they’re not going to just have five touchdowns, only three of which were actually rushing touchdowns the other two are receiving so I expect the running back room to collaborate into falling into the end zone more times than three. probably somewhere in that eight to 10 number is where I have that. So the last thing I’m going to say about Joshua Kelley is now is actually the time to buy him if you’re looking to get in late if you’re doing an early draft even even a late round pick dynasty startup, that type of thing because his current ADP is so freakin low. You can pick this guy up in the 17th 18th 19th round for a guy who’s he’s got zero basically zero tread on his tires. He’s going to see the ball inside the redzone. Does he need Ekeler to kind of trip over himself to be able to have week in and week out usage? Yeah, possibly. But if you’re strapped with injuries, you’re strapped with, you know, things on a by players on a bike, he’s actually not a bad thought if you’re in, you know, a touchdown only league and you’re just kind of scraping for points somewhere. So drafting today is where the value is, I think once the teams get into camp wants to see you know, initial depth chart projections and that kind of come to the surface, you will see his draft stock rise as we get closer to the start of the season. So if you’re waiting to draft and like, like we do with the home League, and you don’t draft until the very end of August, or that first weekend in September, his draft status is going to be very, very much of a premium compared to where you can get them now.
Derek 16:25
Let’s go ahead and move on over to the wide receiver room. And they’ve got some they’ve got some pretty interesting wide receivers over there. We’ll start with Keenan Allen, who finished as wide receiver 14 last year 100 receptions on 147 targets 992 yards, eight touchdowns through the air your thoughts on Keenan Allen.
Keenan Allen WR Los Angeles Chargers 2021
Alex 16:48
I do recall being one of the hosts of this podcast was banging the drum on Keenan Allen last year. Now that was all predicated on thinking that Tyrod Taylor was going to be the quarterback and not just to Herbert. But nevertheless, Keenan Allen delivered on those goods and did all of that while missing two games. I mean, he was on a projection. You know, you project those out, probably finishes with a career high end catches, which I mean, he was only four shy of that anyway, and probably flirting with, you know, touching his career high in yards, which is 1393 back in 2017. So, I still think that there’s no reason to believe that you’re not going to get the same production, if not better if he’s healthy for an entire season. Again, he missed two games last year that you’re going to you can pretty much just automatically count on that he’s going to be in that 1100 range, have about 100 receptions. And oh, what he lacked in touchdowns, or what he lacked in yards and catches last year more than made up for in touchdowns tying his career high with eight, which he said his rookie year in 2013. So I still think that Keenan Allen is a viable receiver in this league. And you can count on 1100 yards around that 100 receptions and six touchdowns, which is what he had put up each of the three previous years going into last year. And you’re going to be happy with that. That’s that’s going to be pretty good for what you’re going to get. Now. I don’t know that that’s that’s fringe wide receiver, one wide receiver two territory. But that’s that’s pretty dang good for probably where you’re gonna draft him because I still think he he hangs under the radar. You know, I just don’t know that people are all that big on Keenan Allenand all he’s been is the model of consistency over the last four years.
Kevin 18:52
I’d agree with that he does fall into the Raider to be fair for carrying out the final two games of the regular season that he missed were COVID related. So it again, it’s not an injury thing that we need to worry about tissue injury that monitor coming in. As he’s 28 years old. Now he’s had eight years in the league. So we’re in tears a real thing. But obviously you didn’t want anybody to get COVID that isn’t the case. But in this situation, I am happier with it being COVID then a soft tissue injury with a player who’s up there as far as years spent in the league and the amount of hits his body has taken over said years. But he’s he’s absolutely a fringe wide receiver one he honestly without missing those two games. He’s in wide receiver one category, but you can constantly draft him as a wide receiver too. So Keenan Allen is the best wide receiver to essentially that you can find on your team for a value because you’re able to pick him up in that fourth tear of wide receivers almost, because he is the last soldier. He’s the guy that people seem to forget about. And and there were a lot of people myself included that early on in his career when he was fighting injuries in those first two seasons, and that kind of wrote him off. And then unless you’ve been paying attention to the last six seasons, you kind of just forget the fact that he’s sitting there. But Alan is a PPR monster. He’s not gonna necessarily break away for big chunk plays. But he has sure Hans Herbert looks for him in the end zone. He proved that last year. So I think Alan is very much a value by wide receiver you can get him as probably the 15th 16th 17th receiver off the board in some cases, and he has a very good chance to finish inside the top 12. Like this isn’t a pipe dream. This is actually possible because of his ability to just create separation and come down with the ball consistently. And he was clearly Justin Herbert‘s security blanket. It wasn’t Hunter Henry, it was Keenan Allen. And I do expect that to continue, as Herbert’s maturity and awareness at the quarterback position continue to grow. He will continue to lean on Keane now.
Alex 21:24
Just Just a bit of housekeeping there, Kevin. It was it was years three and four, which I think are more are more detrimental, right, because he has those first two breakout years where he had, you know, he had eight touchdowns his rookie year and he follows that up, he’s got four touchdowns. And then he’s got four touchdowns again. But he only plays half the season in year three, and then he only plays one game and in year four, and I think that that’s where, you know, a lot of people are like, man, I got burned by this guy. I picked him up and I got burned by him. And over the last, you know, since then years, that was 15 and 16, that those those two years that were rough for him, but since then, he has been the model of consistency. Like I said, He’s played 16 games, the exception last year where he only played 14. And he’s been at the 100 reception mark right at the 100 reception, Mark, give or take, right at 1100 yards, give or take. And he’s had six touchdowns each of the last three years and then put up eight last year.
Derek 22:26
Yeah. And Alex, you definitely called that one right going into last season. Right? You had him ranked 11th. As far as fantasy finished for wide receivers, and quite frankly, heavy played those last two games you would have finished probably right in that 1011 spot. So you definitely nailed it. And you were the highest of the three of us on him. So kudos to you on on that call, sir. And a lot of it had to do with the fact of your reasoning behind that to where he became that that safety blanket for Herbert going through it. And your prognostication skills were very good. That’s that’s what I’m trying to say. So.
Alex 23:02
But that was all predicated on Tyrod Taylor being the quarterback because that’s what we all thought.
Derek 23:07
True. True.
Alex 23:08
So I’ll take credit, but it was flawed logic that ended up working out,
Derek 23:14
right. And Keenan Allen really is is that value type of receiver that you can get in there because there’s a lot of times depending upon how your draft falls, you can even get him as that third wide receiver on your team. Because like you guys already said he is kind of that forgotten guy out there. But there’s few receivers that are going to be taken that late that are going to command you know, 20 plus percent of the target share out there and get close to 150 targets throughout the season. And be that guy’s gonna catch about 100 like there are a few receivers out there that are going to do that. And he has been just very consistent at it year over year over year. And the fact that I think we’re gonna see Herbert progress even more so this next year only solidifies what, what he’s going to do and he’s going to be that fringe wide receiver one that you can pick up in the fourth fifth round type of deal and get tremendous value on. Let’s go ahead and move on over to Mike Williams. Mike Williams last year finishes the 45th wide receiver, 48 receptions. 85 targets, 756 yards, five touchdowns, your thoughts on Mike Williams,
Mike Williams WR Los Angeles Chargers 2021
Alex 24:23
it’s so tough to judge because he is the flyer he’s a boom or bust. You know, there will be those weeks that he has the huge the long touchdown catch that will rake in so many fantasy points and then there will be other weeks where it’s frustrating because he’s not seeing the football as much. He’s not getting the volume. In terms of targets. I mean, he had 85 last year as you said, they’re the that’s not exactly what you what you’d like to see out of a out of a receiver you know, you’d like to be at least at that 100 mark at that century mark for a receiver Because then you’re probably even if he’s at a 75% catch rating, which is awesome, you know, that’s still only 75 receptions. So he’s a frustrating guy. But if you roll the dice with him, and you might get rewarded, I mean, his second year in the league, he had 10 touchdowns. And he’s not been able to get to 10 touchdowns in total over the next two years, so that that’s tough. He kind of burst onto the scene there. And I think a lot of people had high expectations, but he was also planning with Philip Rivers who was no stranger to throw in that, you know, gunslinger mentality. If Herbert gets more comfortable, and we’ll take those risks, and we’ll air it out a little bit, then Mike Williams becomes a bigger factor in in fantasy football, but right now, hopefully that step gets taken. But as far as it goes, you know, wide receiver for range is probably where he’s at. But he’s got the upside, which is very enticing, I think, to a lot of people.
Kevin 26:05
Yeah, I think I think Mike Williams, is probably sitting around that wide receiver for range. And really, he’s another guy that you can generally get at a value you can, you can get him cheaper than that, which is a good thing, because you don’t know when those touchdowns are gonna hit. He’s definitely a guy that I think I I’m much more inclined to take him in a basketball league so I can capture those weeks where, you know, he goes, five for 135, and one or two scores, and then the other weeks where he goes, you know, one for, you know, 19 it doesn’t, it doesn’t hurt me. He’s a guy that you want to like, he’s a great frame, he’s, he’s six for 218 pounds ish. So he’s got a good frame, he’s definitely quick enough to get behind the secondary, which is what the Chargers have been using him for the past few years. So I don’t know that we’re gonna see him ever hit 10 touchdowns again. But I think consistently having him sit in that four to six touchdowns per year is pretty much where he’s gonna sit and for a wide receiver to on a team. That’s not terrible numbers. It’s just not great numbers and things that you’re actively searching for. In the fantasy realm. Now, if he falls in your lap, kudos for, like, if your knee falls through you wrong with taking him you’ll you’ll be able to use him in a situation where maybe he goes out of it and comes off, you know, on a heater and you can flip them. Maybe Keenan Allen does take a step back being you know, going into his ninth season and Mike Williams needs to step up. Maybe him and Justin Herbert are have been working together every day in the offseason I haven’t seen that but it doesn’t mean that they’re not doing it. But he’s a guy that you’re taking in that wide receiver five type range as you know, statistically a wide receiver for so you get some value there. And you just hope he has more boom bust or boom weeks than bust weeks to help you out.
Derek 28:13
Yep, I think you both have summarized him up perfectly. Let’s go ahead and move on over to the tight ends. They signed Jared Cook over there from New Orleans last year Hunter Henry leaving for the Patriots. Jared Cook finished at Titan 17 last year 37 receptions 60 targets 504 yards with seven touchdowns. Your thoughts on Jared Cook.
Jared Cook TE Los Angeles Chargers 2021
Kevin 28:39
I think we’re gonna see similar usage numbers. I don’t know. I would not be surprised to see the Chargers drafted tight end this coming season helped develop him. I don’t think that Jared Cook is going to be used as an every down tied in. But you get inside that green zone and that’s where you’re going to see Jared Cook make his money. He will be does find the mismatch he can get himself open. But just don’t expect him to come down with six or seven grabs each game that’s just not the player he is anymore. So he provides some upside. Again, more of a basketball type player for me just because you don’t have that weekly output from him that you can consistently stick in your lineup and feel good about. But he’s a wily veteran, he finds ways to get open and the Chargers have a history of using the wily veteran tight end and all of a sudden they you know spring 12 touchdowns on you and you’re going holy crap. Where did that come from?
Alex 29:43
Yeah, Jared Cook‘s usage is going to be wildly wildly predicated on Justin Herbert‘s ability to find him. I think he’s a little bit easier to find than a Hunter Henry. And I think that that is where you’re going to see Maybe an uptick of what we saw from last year’s numbers with the tight end. So to me, yeah, I think similar numbers is probably what we can expect. Again, with tida, as we’ve talked several times, that the tier group is, Jared Cook is not in tier one. And he’s maybe in the fringe tier two, but more likely in tier three. And that’s, again, that’s predicated on how much that Herbert wants to use him and how much he is, finds himself open, and can they fall into the end zone a couple times. So to me, that’s how I evaluate him is in that fringe tier two, more likely tier three in the tight end group.
Derek 30:52
Yeah, for me, he’s definitely kind of that Titan three guy that if I, if I’ve punted to position in tight end, and I can, yeah, I’m looking down the 12th type of round, there’s a lot of, there’s a really good chance that he’s going to be there and is a guy that I’m willing to draft in that location simply because of the fact that he is going to be that tight end that’s touchdown dependent for your fantasy team, the weeks in which he’s going to score well as he’s going to score a touchdown in the weeks that he’s not, or he’s not going to score a touchdown, which kind of relegates him into the majority of tight ends out there, when it comes to fantasy. He’s not going to, you know, set the world on fire from scoring as far as your top tier kind of guys. And there’s going to be some weeks that he’s going to be able to hang with kind of those tier two guys, and you know, finishing their Titan 5678 somewhere in there on a week. But overall on the season, what you just saw is about what you’re going to get on that while the Chargers tend to use the tight end a little bit more, right like they they use Hunter Henry with about 90 targets last year, Jared Cook only saw about 60 on the saints, you’re going to see him probably get somewhere in that 70 to 80 target range. And a lot of those are going to be the kind of that touchdown area where they’re going to use him so I could very easily see him getting that 70 to 80 targets probably put up about eight nine touchdowns. So you know half the weeks you’re going to be happy with and half the weeks that you’re not but that’s going to put him kind of in that same territory as a lot of other tight ends out there and he’s a guy that if that’s what you’re left with between tight independent touchdown type of deal is a guy worth taking a flyer on
Alex 32:37
I do think Kevin’s onto something though with the Chargers taking the tight end getting the tight end through the draft i think that that is very very likely just to give Justin Herbert some more weapons some some like he means any more weapons. The kid was awesome last year but just to give him another choice. And to put stress on the defense. I think that that’s that’s what the Chargers could really use is another stressor and the tight end spots where they need it.
Derek 33:07
Well guys, that’s gonna bring us over to the rookie sensation the quarterback out of Oregon last year. Playing for the Chargers Justin Herbertfinished as QB nine last year set some rookie records through completed 396 passes on a 595 attempts for 4336 yards. 31 touchdowns, only 10 interceptions, ran the ball 55 times for an additional 234 and five touchdowns. Your thoughts on Justin Herbert.
Justin Herbert QB Los Angeles Chargers 2021
Kevin 33:41
I think for Justin Herbert, you’re probably going to see some similar passing numbers. I don’t think he’s going to get five rushing touchdowns. I think they’re going to use the run game a little bit more for that, as we said just with the running back room only having three rushing touchdowns. Obviously he can use his legs a little bit that he’s you know, youthful, if you will, as bit of a spring in his step, but he’s not designed. He’s not. He can scramble he’s not a designed runner. He’s not going to purposely peel off and go. But that being said, I think somewhere around 30 to 35 touchdowns is about right, even with the extra game. I can see him doing that. But I think his interceptions probably tick up a little bit as there’s a little bit more film on him. So unless they completely revamped that offense, I could see him you know, 12 interceptions, you know, it’s not a ton more but it’s it’s just a slight increase here as he kind of goes through his sophomore season. His his biggest his biggest asset will be continuing to get into his second third read when Keenan Allen isn’t open. Can he can can he read through the defense quickly enough to get to your second third read to get to a Jane Guyton or If Joe reads playing forum, out in the widest out in the slot, excuse me, obviously you have Mike Williams. So there’s some weapons around. It’s just a matter of making the use for it, and trying to continue to move the chains like he was able to do so almost easily. For the most part first rookies, his rookie season,
Alex 35:23
Kevin, you said something there that really strikes me. And that is, there’s film on him now. And not that there wasn’t film with him coming out of college. But now there’s NFL film on him. And so I think that, you know, you said that 30 to 35, with the extra game. I’m not quite as bullish on that touchdown output. I think if he I think he’s in the 25 to 30 range, even with the extra game. I just think that he had a sensational year. And I don’t know that he backs that up. Not saying that he doesn’t still have a great year next year. But I don’t know that he backs that up, I think, you know, it’s, I think it’s just human nature, when you tend to get a little bit more comfortable with something. That’s when mistakes get made. And that’s where I see the interceptions number going up. Probably not higher than 15. Your 12 numbers very good, Kevin, I like that. But I see the interceptions number going up the touchdown number coming down the yards, I don’t know that he’s at 4300. The extra game probably does help there. You know, saying that he’s healthy through playing 17 games. But 4300 feels like maybe a touch high as well. But I still think that for dynasty purposes, this kid’s dynamite. And if you got him last year, holy cow, you got him for nothing, because he wasn’t going to be the starter. And now he’s turned out to be one of the great, you know, one of the best assets that you’ve got on a dynasty team for redraft purposes. Yeah, he’s probably he’s a QB one in my eyes. But I think he’s towards the bottom half of QB one territory then then the upper echelon.
Derek 37:14
Right. And when you look at dynasty last year, he was a second round type of rookie pick, and he wasn’t supposed to play,
Alex 37:21
he wasn’t gonna play,
Derek 37:22
the hit rate on those guys is usually not very high, much less, you know, hitting like that right out the gate. What will be very interesting to me. And it’s one of those I think he will finish up there about where you’re kind of talking, Kevin, that 17th game, we’ll add some of that in. But what I’m going to be very interested to see is how he adjust to what’s going to be his third offensive system in three years because of that coaching change what that coaching change is going to look like when it’s all said and done. The thing that’ll be interesting to me is is they brought into defensive minded head coach coming over from the the crosstown rival the Rams right there. And that defense gets a lot of really, really good pieces back on it. So I think the the Chargers will have a little bit of a different philosophy when it comes to play, right. Like some of Justin Herbert‘s numbers were predicated on the fact that the Chargers were having to play from behind quite a bit last year, and he was having to throw the ball to keep them in games. The fact that they’ve got a defense coming back, that defense will be good. I think they’re gonna stay in closer games to it, he’s not going to have to throw the ball as much. But the fact that you’ve got Joe Lombardi coming over as the offensive coordinator on that one, he spent a ton of time in the saints was the quarterback coach for a lot of years there with Drew Brees down there in New Orleans. And, and also spent quite a bit of time up there in Detroit with Matthew Stafford, one of his offensive coordinator up there, I could see them utilizing the past game a little bit as that run game and be some Dink and dunk throughout there. They’ve definitely got the pieces with a Keenan Allen and a Austin Ekeler in which to do that. So I think you’re gonna see those numbers get there. I just hope that they don’t necessarily limit him on throwing the ball down the field, because that was one of the big bright shining spots last year was his ability to throw the ball down the field and throw it accurately down the field for some big playability.
Kevin 39:27
Yes. One thing that I think for the most part is pretty advantageous for them is the Chargers have the NFC north and or excuse me, the AFC North, the NFC East, and their bonus game is a home game against the Minnesota Vikings. So I think the schedule sets up for some of these games are going to be challenging and they’re going to be playing catch up mode. And some of these games are just not great. They’re there. AFC South opponent is the Houston Texans. So I just see the opportunity. We’ll see like you said with with a defensive minded head coach that changes a lot of things, but bringing in a quarterback guru obviously helps with development and we’ve seen how well Drew Brees and Matt Stafford have done being able to chuck the ball all over the yard. So I think that spells good things for Herbert as well.
Derek 40:27
Yeah, it’s for me, that’s gonna be the biggest question mark is what kind of system does Lombardi bring with him for that offensive side of things because Drew Brees was definitely a you know, the Dink and dunk type of passer give us that passing game, a lot of to supplement the run game on a lot of that, where’s Matt Stafford was throwing the ball down the field more. So it’ll be interesting to see how that system is adapted to fit what Justin Herbert is capable of doing. And I hope that we see a little bit more of the Matt Stafford side of that, just from the standpoint that they’ve got the ability to throw the ball down the field. And Herbert has that cannon to deliver the ball accurately down the field as well. I
Kevin 41:05
think we will. Because Drew Brees, you know, things have changed, things changed for him in the last three, four seasons. But before that Drew Brees was a grip and rip it guy. I mean, he was constantly in that 4000 Club when it wasn’t very common to be in and he was being accurate with the football obviously helps Drew Brees, he didn’t turn it over a whole bunch. So maybe that helps and bleeds into Justin Herbert‘s game as well, too. But I do think you’ll still see a very potent and effective vertical attack coming from the LA Chargers.
Derek 41:40
Yeah, I think this team shows can be a lot of fun with a lot of very good fantasy relevant pieces on it. So this is one of those teams that I think we talk a lot about, you want a piece of that offense. I think this is one of those types of teams that you want a piece of this offense, and you could get value, you can find value at any position here. So the only one that I think you would be harder pressed to find value with is going to be in the quarterback room because Justin Herbert coming off of that season, there’s a good chance that he’s going to be a little overdrafted this year. So that’s going to be kind of the one thing I would put out, there’s kind of that caveat and that caution tail. Be mindful of where he’s being taken in the draft. If he’s going to be taken in that top, your top six type of pick from a quarterback off the board. He’s a guy that you don’t want to get in there. Because it because like you said, I think he’s going to fish that back half. Well, guys, any final thoughts on the Chargers?
Kevin 42:41
No, I think we I think we’ve covered it it is you know, even for being a division rival, like we get to see the Chargers a lot being Broncos fans. So it’s a team that has been defensively sound over the years. It is also a team that has just been uncharacteristically hammered by the injury bug even before the 2020 season where it just seemed like everybody was injured. But even before then they’ve had injury, and the injury history across the defensive and offensive lines. So if they’re able to, you know, just finally get on the right side of the odds were players are able to stay healthy and do the right things. This team’s going to be competing for a wildcard spot. I don’t know, I don’t think they’re good enough to be pushing the Chiefs for the division just yet. But I do think you could see the Chargers pushing for a wildcard spot. And in weeks 1516 and 17. or excuse me, 1617 and 18 be pushing down the stretch to try and get in that final spot in the AFC.
Alex 43:49
I think Derek, what you said is right, it’s one of those teams that you want a piece you want a piece of and if you get the right piece, you’re going to be very happy about it. So it’s a team that is definitely going through a an identity change. They’ve obviously now have found their new franchise quarterback now they’re just trying to put all the rest of the pieces together. But finding the franchise quarterback i think is the hardest thing to do. Every team is out there searching for it, you know, a select few have found the guy that they want. And so now that they know that they’ve got Herbert in place, it’s once you can build around that it becomes a lot easier. And I think that that only leads to success, because you don’t have to worry about that one spot. So in terms of fantasy, it’s a team that you want a piece of if you get the right piece of it, you’re going to be very happy. If you end up getting somebody other than Ekeler Kelly in the running back room. It might be a little upset. But yeah, if you get if you get yourself a Keenan Allen on the receiving room. You’re welcome. Because I told you last year you should already had it.
Derek 45:00
All righty guys. Well I do believe that that’s going to wrap up yet another episode of the good old boys fantasy football podcast. Make sure you’re checking out the socials instagram twitter facebook at good old boys FF. You can also check out the website goodoldboysff.com for Kevin and Alex. I’m Derek. Have a good one. Be safe.