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2021 NFL Coaching Changes & Fantasy Football Impact
By Derek Dennington 3/15/2021
As the NFL coaching carousel stops turning for another year, we are left to wonder not only the fates of the NFL teams that these new hires will now lead, but the fates of the players on the rosters of these teams. New leadership within an organization means changes. These changes have the ability to enhance or detract the fantasy prospects of players. Are these coaches a system coach or will they adapt their system to fit the players and the question that is left to be answered with these changes is how are the players impacted for your fantasy roster. We will answer these questions of System or Fit. With System being that the new coaches will likely put their system into place and have players run the system and Fit is the coach will adapt the system to best fit their personal.
Atlanta Falcons 2020 (4-12) Pass 60% Run 40%
The Falcons have been a traditionally pass heavy team. In the last ten seasons, the closest the Falcons have come to a balanced attack is 55% pass 45% run. Arthur Smith comes into Atlanta as the new head coach from the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans. While with the Titans, Smith led an offensive attack headlined by Derrick Henry and a run heavy offense. The Falcons have also hired Dave Ragone as their new offensive coordinator. Ragone is a former NFL quarterback and has previous coaching experience as the passing coordinator, wide receiver coach, and quarterback coach.
Verdict: Fit
The saying goes when in Rome. As a coach, if you have a playmaker like Derrick Henry, you get him the ball as often as possible. The Falcons have playmakers at the wide receiver position and a quarterback that is efficient in getting them the ball. The Falcons also need to find running back help to set this offense up success in 2021. Arthur Smith’s passing attack as the offensive coordinator of the Titans relied on play action; this could be a carry over to the Falcons offense in 2021.
For play action to be effective, the Falcons will need to establish the run. For 2021, I see the Falcons finding a 55% pass to 45% run ratio. While this will decrease the pass volume for the Falcons from 2020, the fantasy impact on players such as Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley will be minimal. The Falcons establishing a run game will allow the passing game to be more efficient which will make up for the decrease in the volume.
Detroit Lions 2020 (5-11) Pass 61% Run 39%
The Lions are moving on from the Matt Patricia era and looking to Dan Campbell to bring success to the Lions organization. Dan Campbell is coming to the Lions from the Saints organization where he was the Assistant Head Coach and TE coach and a previous tenure with the Dolphins where he was an interim head coach for 12 games. Anthony Lynn is the new offensive coordinator for the Lions. Lynn is a former head coach for the Chargers with several stops as a running backs coach for several NFL teams, and he played running back as a player in the NFL.
Verdict: Fit
The Lions have a lot of question marks with the roster as it currently sits. Jared Goff is newly acquired in a trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the Rams. D’Andre Swift showed flashes of brilliance in 2020 but there are several question marks in the wide receiver room with primary starters Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. heading into the offseason as free agents. Both Campbell and Lynn come from teams that are pass heavy. I expect this to continue; however, with the questions the Lions have at wide receiver, it will force the team to involve other options in the passing game such as TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift. The Lions will lean towards being pass heavy but more balanced than last year.
Houston Texans 2020 (4-12) 61% pass 39% run
The Texans have moved on from Bill O’Brien and have brought in David Culley as the new head coach. Culley has been a coach in the NFL since 1994 and been with several organizations. Culley spent time as a coach on Andy Reid’s staff with both the Eagles and the Chiefs. This is an interesting dilemma. Culley is coming from several years in the Andy Reid system which is incredibly pass heavy but has spent the last two seasons with the Ravens who have led the league in rushing attempts in 2019 and 2020.
Verdict: System
The Texans are keeping current offensive coordinator Tim Kelly. The biggest question mark surrounding the Texans for 2021 is what will happen with Deshaun Watson who has requested a trade. Culley having spent as much time on Reid’s staffs in the past and the Texans keeping Tim Kelly as OC will have the Texans continue to be pass heavy. The Texans also have several questions regarding their defense. They will be playing from a negative game script most of the season. I see the Texans being around a 64% pass to a 36% run for 2021.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2020 (1-15) 65% pass 35% run
The Jaguars are in full rebuild mode and expected to have a lot of moves in free agency. They have a lot of room with the salary cap and several draft picks. The Jaguars brought Urban Meyer out of retirement to debut as an NFL head coach. Darrell Bevell was hired as the offensive coordinator after stints with the Seahawks and Lions offensive coordinator. The Jaguars also have a hidden gem in undrafted free agent James Robinson. Urban Meyer utilized a Run Pass Option attack in his several stops as a college head coach with much success using this system.
Verdict: System
The Jaguars will have the 1.01 draft pick in the NFL draft and will presumably be drafting a quarterback. This will be a case with the draft picks and salary cap availability, the Jaguars will be remodeling the team with the system in mind and bringing in players to fit that system. I see the Jaguars being more balanced and running a 55% pass to 45% run ratio heading into 2021 which should have big upside for James Robinson in fantasy; but if this comes to fruition, look for the Jaguars to add an additional running back to make this a reality.
Los Angeles Chargers 2020 (7-9) 57% pass 43% run
The Chargers look to have their quarterback of the future in Justin Herbert and the team brings in several options at wide receivers and running backs. The Chargers hired a defensive minded head coach in Brandon Staley from the Rams. Brandon Staley’s hire should do some good things for this Charger’s Defense which is loaded with talent so this could have some huge impacts for IDP. Joe Lombardi comes over as the new offensive coordinator from the New Orleans Saints, where he was the quarterback’s coach.
Verdict: Fit
This is a fit, but this Chargers offense and the way that it is designed will fit the system as well. The Chargers have a running back that is an exceptional pass catcher in Austin Eckler, an elite pass catcher in Keenan Allen, and a quarterback that is coming off setting the record for rookie quarterbacks’ touchdowns. This Chargers team will be an interesting watch in 2021. I see the Chargers falling into a 58% pass 42% run ratio and seeing similar production on the offensive side of the ball with better production on the defensive side of the ball and they should not be in as much of a negative game script in 2021.
New York Jets 2020 (2-14) 55% pass 45% run
The Jets have moved off Adam Gase and brought in Robert Saleh to coach the Jets. Robert Saleh is a defensive minded head coach and coming off of several successful seasons as the 49ers defensive coordinator. Mike LaFleur follows Saleh from the 49ers to the Jets to become their offensive coordinator. A big question mark heading into the 2021 season for fantasy players is will the Jets players have an Adam Gase rebound like we’ve seen with players in the past fresh out of the Gase system.
Verdict: System
Mike Lafleur is the brother of Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur and has spent several seasons in the Kyle Shanahan system. I see LaFleur implementing his version of the Shanahan system. In the future, I expect the Jets to get to a balanced attack of close to 50/50 split but that will not happen this season as the Jets will likely be playing in a negative game script with needs on the offensive line, running back, and wide receiver corp. I see the Jets having a 56% pass to 44% run ratio in 2021.
Philadelphia Eagles 2020 (4-11-1) 60% pass 40% run
The Eagles have several holes to fill this offseason. The divorce between Carson Wentz, Doug Pederson, and the Eagles ended with Carson Wentz being traded to the Colts, Doug Pederson fired, and the Eagles bringing Nick Sirianni to be the head coach. Shane Steichen was brought in as the new offensive coordinator from the Los Angeles Chargers. Both Sirianni and Steichen have spent several years in the Frank Reich system. This tandem will bring a system that fits their player’s skill set
Verdict: Fit
Jalen Hurts will presumably be the starting quarterback for the Eagles in 2021. There are several question marks on the offensive line and wide receiver corps. Hurts strength comes from his ability to apply stressors to the opposing defense with his run ability. I look for the Eagles to adapt an RPO offensive attack for 2021. I expect the Eagles to be playing in a negative game script in the majority of their games this year and need to throw the ball to stay in games or try to come back. In my opinion, the Eagles will see a 59% pass to 41% run ratio.
Offensive Coordinator Changes
There have been several coaching changes coming at offensive coordinator for teams. The Colts, Dolphins, Vikings, Steelers, Seahawks, 49ers, and Titans all have new offensive coordinators coming in. While there are several changes at the offensive coordinator, I do not see any major changes happening for fantasy with the Colts, Vikings, Seahawks, 49ers, and Titans. These teams either have head coaches or predominate players in place that will keep the offensive play calling status quo. Wild cards for play calling are the Dolphins and Steelers
The Dolphins have a co-coordinator situation going on and a lot of questions going into the offseason. The Dolphins will be looking to determine if Tua is their long-term solution at quarterback and they have several draft picks. I look for the Dolphins to have a 53% pass to 47% run in 2021.
The Steelers would like to have a more balanced attack in 2021. In 2020, the Steelers were a 64% pass and 36% run ratio. After restricting Ben Roethlisberger‘s contract, the Steelers look to compete in 2021, but they will need to establish a running game. I look for the Steelers to add a running back in the draft and address the offensive line in the draft. The Steelers should look to utilize the 2015 Denver Broncos playbook to win in 2021.