Cincinnati Bengals and QB Carousel
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
joe mixon, draft, quarterback, joe, carson wentz, season, higgins, play, hire, burrow, cincinnati, yards, year, tyler boyd, touchdowns, rehire, retire, bit, wide receiver, rookie
SPEAKERS
Alex, Intro, Derek, Kevin
Intro 00:05
You’re listening to the good old boys fantasy football podcast. Now here’s your host, Kevin, Derek and Alex.
Derek 00:13
Alrighty. Welcome in ladies and gentlemen to another episode of the good old boys fantasy football Podcast. I am Derek and I am joined as always by your co host, Kevin and Alex. Go ahead and follow us on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, if you haven’t already done so at @GoodOldBoys,FF. Do us a favor, log on to the website. Check it out. We’ve got lots of really good stuff there and even more to come over the next couple of weeks and months. Guys, we do have a team of the week to break down. Let’s go ahead and hop on over we got the Cincinnati Bengals and we’re gonna start where we always do that’s in the running back room and a little bit of a disappointing starting guy there. Joe Mixon who finishes running back 49. Last year he was drafted as the RB seven 10th overall type of pick and really just kind of an injury plague season for him. He did have 119 yards or 119 rushes 428 yards, three rushing touchdowns, 21 receptions, 26 targets for an additional 138 through the air and one touchdown guys your thoughts on Joe Mixon
Alex 01:16
Derek before before we get into it did this one hurt because you had lots of shares of Joe Mixon or because it was a sooner that just didn’t didn’t pan out for you.
Derek 01:25
Maybe a lot of column A and maybe a lot of column B.
Alex 01:29
There was a lot of disdain as you were describing Joe Mixon season here
Derek 01:35
now Joe makes sense a guy that I watched it Oklahoma and watched his entire time there, you really have some ability there and for him to not deliver on that, that draft capital and for him to really just have that that shortened down by the kind of that injury thing and Cincinnati did, I think really did a disservice to the fantasy community on that one because it was always kind of that well, he’ll he’ll be back. He’ll be back. He’ll be back. He’ll be back. And oh, now we’re gonna put them on the IR Oh, but he’ll be back and then finishes the season. You’re not playing after week six. And it would have it would have been really interesting to see and this is what I’m excited to see this coming year is what that looks like with Joe Mixon who can both run and catch the ball out of the backfield with Joe burrow when he’s back like that should be an exciting combination to watch and see along with some of these other tools that are in that Cincinnati offense and, and how that that kind of comes to play. But I’m gonna kick that back to you on what’s your thoughts on Joe Mixon are
Kevin 02:37
My initial thought is in 2020. We had a lot of running backs who we drafted very highly in the first round Round and a half who severely underperformed right. And a lot of it due to injury. CMC injured, Barkley injured Zeke, everyone around him got injured. Joe Mixon injured? Just j Jacobs. Question mark like he had a couple nagging little injuries but not anything as significant as CMC or say quantum. Now, out of all those guys who disappointed I don’t know that anyone’s draft stock is going to fall as far as Joe Mixon. I think Joe Mixon and partially because of how the Bengals handle it is going to be one of those guys that people just get scorned from and his fantasy draft stock will suffer. Now, depending on how reports Look how it looks in camp, the rapport with with Joe burrow the offense as they continue another year under Zach Taylor. There’s still a ton of opportunity for this guy like he’s still a lead back for the Bengals. And really a workhorse back he’s a three down guy. He like you said Derek, he receives very well out of the backfield. He showed in 2019 that he can handle big workloads. As as the Bengals kind of gave him from boy about week six or seven and 2019 through the end of the year. That’s why we all drafted him. So high the volume, Volume Volume Volume is what we kept cramming down everyone’s throats. Obviously, it didn’t quite happen. But when you miss the last 10 weeks of the season, that’s kind of where it’s where it settles out. So I do think because of some other players in those positions, I do think Joe mixins final draft stock for 2021 will land right in that upper end of our v2 levels. I don’t think he’s going to crack the top 12 there’s just so much talent at the position right now. I don’t know if he’s gonna quite get there. A lot of that’s going to because a game script was Cincinnati expecting them to still be trailing in a lot of games in 2021. But Joe Mixon is more than capable. But I am not going to be the least bit surprised to see him, like rb, I don’t know 17 1819 off the board, when we come into draft season because the player, the fantasy football player, being us is going to remember that in large part of how they got absolutely ramrodded by him. And that’s typically how that happens, right, you get scorned by a guy, you let him sit, you see bad stats on the guy, you let him sit like all these things. with the caveat, the opportunity is still there, there’s still tremendous upside But Joe Mixon he’s never going to be a top five running back. Like that’s not going to be his game. But he does have top, you know, back end of but he still has top 10 talent, and definitely has top 10 opportunity, it’s just a matter if Cincinnati can find the right mix to use him and not just fall in love with Joe Burrows, right arm
Alex 06:08
It’s going to be kind of a buyer beware situation with Joe Mixon in that I think you can take the risk on this guy still, you’re not going to draft him where you were drafting him, you know, this year, but the recency bias is going to play into that. But I still think that to your point, Kevin, that if you take him, you know, in that second round, you’re still going to be pretty, I think if he plays a full season, you’re going to be pretty happy with the production that he gives you. Because we’ve seen that obviously they can run the football in Cincinnati, we’ve seen that with their other backs that they have. So you throw in the talent level of Joe Mixon that I think that that that bodes well for you. So it is a buyer beware situation and I think there’s going to be a lot of Joe Mixon owners from this year that are going to be you know, in that same camp where I was with will Fuller, you know, that it’s the i’m not i’m done with this guy, I’m done with being hurt by him. You know, I’m not going back to that. So, but I think that it will still pay dividends for the person that does end up you know, if if he’s healthy, and it sounds like you know, all intents and purposes, it’s a foot injury, so you never know, but he’s had a long time to recover from it. So that’s where I think you kind of are gonna have to temper your draft expectations when it comes to genomics. And if you can be patient enough to pull the trigger at the right time, you’re going to be okay with it. But if you go if you’re drafting them where you were drafting them last year, it’s not gonna work out for you.
Kevin 07:42
Do you like Joe Mixon or Aaron Jones?
Derek 07:44
Joe Mixon I know where he’s gonna be next year?
Alex 07:47
Yeah, that’s fair.
Derek 07:48
I don’t I like Aaron Jones’s landing spot next year back in back in Green Bay. There’s some good things there but I think they’re ready to move on from him and I’m thinking he’s gonna be looking to get paid so I don’t think he’s gonna be back in Green Bay. And the teams that are going to spend up on him I don’t know that there. He’s gonna have the supporting pieces around him to really flourish on what he’s good at.
Kevin 08:11
And that’s fair. And I said that
Alex 08:13
How about a like for like, how about a Joe Mixon or a Josh Jacobs?
Derek 08:16
Um, how that’s tough because Josh Jacobs you know, is he’s got 300 plus carries baked in. However, Josh Jacobs really wasn’t that efficient with all those touches and over the last two seasons, you’ve seen him get banged up as well. We’ve seen Joe Mixon go for a full season and play out most backs You know, they’re good for maybe 15 carries and then there that’s where they kind of start hitting that wall in that 15 to 20 carry range. Joe mixins a interesting guy where he actually will get stronger the more he runs and will really that’s why you see him typically during the seasons, he’s been healthy, he gets better as the season goes along. And as the game goes along, he’s a stronger runner. So as people start kind of wearing out slowing down a little bit, he’s still going full speed and really has another level and another gear that that a lot of running backs don’t so I Kevin you threw out there drafted at running back 17 I think that’s a huge value for him next year, if you’re able to get him as the running back 17 I think that you’ll easily see him perform up there at about you know, probably running back 10 1112 somewhere right in there. And that’s a tremendous value if you’re able to take a guy which running back 17 will typically put you back in the second earlier the third so if you can get Joe Mixon there that’s that’s some tremendous value for a guy that that has the potential to be a three down back and has the potential to be a workhorse back in the league.
Kevin 09:52
I would agree and and all things all answer both questions one Jacobs for me. Side note on that is in a work in werkelijk I got mixing and Jacobs, my first two picks and I thought I was I was like, Alright, this is pretty good. I was drafted at the back half. I was thinking, all right, this is gonna be pretty good. Oh my gosh, man, what a season that pain that was I disliked that team from like week four all the way through the rest of the season. Back there in Johnston, Aaron Jones in 2020 was going at the back end of the second beginning of the third year, that’s where you were consistently getting Aaron Jones. So that’s why I kind of threw that one out off the top of my head. I was just thinking of guys that you were getting at that same level that I see mixing going in with the emergence of Gibson with the emergence of Jonathan Taylor, obviously, you have DeAndre swift thrown in there. You have the kid in Jacksonville, whose name now I can’t remember a job and James Robinson, thank you very much. I appreciate that. So you do kind of have these guy and so that’s why I was thinking somewhere around 17 because you have these guys pushing up, I see all those guys based off the seasons that they had pushed their way in front of him. He is better than a tie or than a mandatory Montgomery, right? Like I’m taking Joe Mixon over Montgomery, but, you know, I’m taking kingmakers over Joe Mixon to so we can we can argue that right, and we’ll get into rankings and everything else. But as I’m, again going through this in my head, I’m thinking of a lot of running backs that damn I don’t take a chance on him over over Joe mix. And I like what they showed and just see kind of how it goes. But you’re right, where you’re getting mixing his ceiling is higher than that there is value that can be built into that. So when you get around to draft day back in August or this coming August, that’s something to remember that there’s value built in
Alex 11:50
So if we take a look fast forward, you know, eight months to August, six, six months, six months alright guys only six months till August, six months to August. Who do you think ADP? is better? Jacobs are mixing Jacobs? Jacobs ADP, right? Because mixing, mixing people are going to be a little down on right.
Kevin 12:10
So I think they’re gonna be within like three spots. Honestly, like I don’t Yeah, I don’t think there’s gonna be a huge gap. I think it’s gonna be much like how the season in 2020 was there wasn’t a huge gap in ADP between mixing and Jacobs. Most boards had mixed in slightly ahead of Jacobs. I think that gets flipped coming into 2020. Now, Jacobs is slightly ahead of mixing but we’re not talking even a half round worth a difference. I think when it’s all said and done with we’re talking like three spots, they will they will go in the same round.
Derek 12:43
I will offer a dissenting viewpoint on that one, just simply from the standpoint that Josh Jacobs finished his running back eight. He’ll be overdrafted next year. I think you’ll see him again kind of that back very back of the first early The second type of thing. And so kind of put that a little bit in perspective. You saw Aaron Jones, you know, we’ve said that name a lot here, but Aaron Jones was taken as the 12th runningback off the board right about ADP 20. So if we’re thinking that he’s that Joe Mixon is going to be a you know, right about that 15 1617 type of Mark, you’re talking third round type of guy and I think that you’ll see about around a difference when that comes to play just because of the fact that you saw everybody get burned by Joe Mixon. But the guys that didn’t have Josh Jacobson didn’t live with that inconsistency that you saw there. When it comes time to be draft season, they’re going to see the guy that finished number eight overall, and they’re going to draft him as a top 10 running back. So I think you’re I think you’re gonna see you’re really close to about a round worth of difference when it’s all said and told come August, but it’ll be interesting to see how things start stacking up when reports start coming out training camp, and otas and all of that sort start coming to play. Giovanni Bernard, my guy, that’s, that’s your dude right there.
Alex 14:05
My man Gio,
Derek 14:07
Gio Bernard. He was running back 31 last year 124 rushes 416 yards, three rushing touchdowns, 47 receptions, 59 targets 355 yards to the air and three receiving touchdowns. He was drafted as the 74th running back at 229. Overall, guys, your thoughts on Gio Bernard,
Kevin 14:29
he had 10 weeks as the starting running back in Oh, probably about seven and a half of those weeks. He let you down. Like part of that was how the bangle script was like Gio was serviceable as a flex play. But he didn’t fill that gap. Gio is not a bell callback. He is a he’s a handcuff, right. He is a quintessential handcuff. And quite frankly, I might take a late late round flier on him but he’s not an I’m targeting on my draft boards. I’m not putting circles and stars next to his name. Honestly, most leagues, most leagues don’t play the deep bench like we do in our home league. So I’m betting that mostly Gio goes undrafted, right, the new rookie class comes in. There’s other new shiny toys like yada yada. So, I’m perfectly happy with passing on geo, depending on how everything looks coming out of camp and you know, again, all the news that we’re going to be getting here in the next six months before we start drafting. But Gio is not a guy that I’m going to be salivating over I think I’m going to find some other areas of opportunity that I’m going to look to cash in on besides Giovanni Bernard. Alright, so
Alex 15:43
when Joe Mixon was in the lineup, the first six weeks of the season, Giovanni Bernard had 12 carries for I don’t feel like doing that math, but not a lot of yards. He was not very effective. More in the past game, you know, he got he got some yardage in the pass game. And then in special teams as well. But week 15 and 16 Gio showed up showed out, thank you. And he was very quintessential to a lot of folks who were working the waiver wire or had him and needed him to come up clutch for a fantasy football semifinal or a championship round. And the warning that I’m going to put out to everybody is you owe him nothing. If he helped you win a championship last year, you owe him nothing. You do not need to take Gio Bernard, at any given point in this draft. He is best left as a waiver wire or if you want to have the handcuff for Joe Mixon early on but you do not owe Gio Bernard, anything. You thank him for his service for winning you a fantasy football championship. And then you pay attention to what he’s doing from afar.
Derek 17:03
Yeah, he had some passing work early on, it was really kind of a passing down change of pace kind of guy and I see that that being his role going forward. Short of Joe Mixon not playing this next year or missing time Gio is going to be a guy that really just probably needs to stay on the waiver wire. He may have some value, you know, on a pickup every once in a while should something happen. But that’s that’s where I see him at this coming here and he’s not a guy I’m looking at draft, any desire to talk about treyvion Williams or somehow JP Ryan,
Kevin 17:35
in any detail. You’re not drafting either one of these guys both got a little bit of run when Gio was the guy geos ability to play special teams keeps him on the roster. So it’s not like the Bengals are just going to dump him. He’s a willing contributor on kickoff and punt returns. So do one of those guys step up is the primary backup. Oh, that’s quite possible. Neither one of them are going to get drafted. So pay attention but don’t be in on.
Alex 18:05
Yeah, I’ll tell you this pay attention if you’re if you’re if you’re targeting Joe Mixon pay attention to what’s going on in Cincinnati. Pay attention to the reports and training camp about who’s looking to be that to fill that backup role because you probably will want to get your hands on a handcuff. If if you have the opportunity if you need to have that opportunity, I should say because that that’s really what all those guys roll should be on your team is as a handcuff for Joe Mixon
Derek 18:35
I’m pretty sure that backups can be geo he’s still signed through this season and I believe the contracts for about 5 million so if you’re going to carry a guy on the roster like that, he’s going to be the backup because you’re not going to pay somebody 5 million to be the special teams guy.
Alex 18:51
And truth be told when it comes to the handcuffs situation. And now I’m still trying to think about the value that is there in the handcuffs situation. But really, you know, maybe look elsewhere, you know, handcuffed you know, Joe Mixon is special, and the rest of these guys are are serviceable. Right, like there’s nothing wrong with being serviceable. But you know, in terms of like a handcuff situation it Cincinnati’s offense, you know, if mixing goes down, then well, it’s probably going to be the Joe burrow show, you know, so So probably don’t you don’t need to worry about getting another running back because they’re that just that good of a run offense. You know what I mean? So so that’s that’s how I would and really, there’s not much in terms of of NFL teams that I’d be like, maybe Indianapolis, you know, a good run offense, but you know, that can all change heading into next year to where, you know, I just want a piece of that running back room. There’s not many NFL teams out there like that. Probably a discussion for another time.
Derek 19:51
Okay, let’s go ahead and move on over to the wide receiver room then. And t Higgins emerged last year the rookie coming in having a pretty deep season he finished his wide receiver 30 last year 67 receptions 108 targets 908 yards, six touchdowns, five rushes for an additional 28 yards on the ground. He was drafted as the wide receiver 73 off the board. 188 is the average draft position. Guys, your thoughts on T Higgins.
Alex 20:24
I won’t hold the draft position against him. Because as you all know, on this show, we were very gun shy when it came to rookies and just the impact that they were able to make. So I’m not surprised that he overachieved I think that that’s probably pretty common for rookie wide receiver with a rookie quarterback and probably gonna do a little bit better than you think that they’re going to do. I think that’s probably just natural, you know, kind of the rule as it were, this offense is so different without Joe burrow. And so I’m a little hesitant I, from what I’ve seen the video I saw of Joe burrow, recovering, which he’s slowly becoming one of my favorite players just because of how cool he is. It’s weird for a 32 year old man to say about a 22 year old guy or whatever it is, but he’s slowly becoming one of my favorite players. And yeah, you’re just gonna want to pay attention but I think there is something special brewing there with with Tee Higgins and Joe Burrow and it’s you know, it’s something that you you got to pay attention to its term in terms of you know, I probably see him kind of in that you know, wide receiver 30 range again, maybe a little bit better if if Burro plays a whole season, but I don’t you know, there’s a handful of dudes I would take before t Higgins and like two or three or four handfuls of dudes,
Kevin 21:49
I think we’re gonna see t Higgins cracked the top 24 here in 2021. I like t Higgins. I think he is a he’s a good route runner. He’s not a blazing speedster. But he’s got some decent size he has a way to get some separation. He has sure hands so he’s not dropping a lot of passes. And and overall as a rookie, he was showing very very well up until Joe burrow got hurt and then it was a little bit more inconsistent but he’s the guy that bro looked for in the red zone, which is always something to key in on if you’re looking for that wide receiver. Three is kind of where he’ll he’ll be drafted as a wide receiver three, he’ll go he’ll go. Probably wide receiver 35 or so in the draft I’m assuming. But I like t Higgins I think that he is in a good position to have kind of that sophomore breakout year that you see some wide receivers have and and he’s a guy that I am going to be looking for. He is a guy that I will absolutely kind of key in on hope to use to add depth to my roster construction. So thumbs up on T Hagen’s I think you will be a solid performer for your 2021 Fantasy 10.
Derek 23:06
Yeah, I see him being drafted going into this year, very similar to what we saw. Now, Tyler Boyd kind of drafted at last year, which would put him you know, drafted in the late 20s type of thing, but I’m agreeing with Kevin, I think that he’s absolutely going to be a top 24 guy. Most likely you will not see AJ green back in there. So that, you know, provide some a little bit more opportunity. But t Higgins is a very tall receiver six, four. And when you look at down to as far as the redzone kind of capital, you know, putting a cherry on top of that thing. So I have four targets inside the five zone with three of those being touchdown. So when they get in there and they’re throwing the ball, they’re looking his way and they’re looking to score touchdowns, having almost 40% of the target share inside those five zone targets. And Joe burrow coming back I think only is going to amplify that. And so it’s a guy that I’m absolutely going to be looking to put on my roster is kind of that third wide receiver, a guy that I do think that you’re going to see him probably finished right around wide receiver 20 in his sophomore season, so could be some very interesting things coming down there. Let’s go ahead and move on over to Tyler Boyd, who was the 35th wide receiver on the season 79 receptions 110 targets 841 yards, four touchdowns through the air, and he was drafted as the wide receiver 30 with an ADP of 77. So guys, your thoughts on Tyler Boyd.
Kevin 24:42
I expect his numbers to improve slightly with the anticipation that Joe Burrell is playing the whole season. Tyler Boyd is a guy that I was he was on my radar for 2020 and it didn’t quite pan out just due to the loss of Joe burrow but Tyler Boyd provides layer of depth the layer of consistency, much like t Higgins I think Hagen’s in my estimates will be a more popular redzone target. But Tyler Boyd is no slouch, he has proved that he can work well, especially with another receiver alongside of him. And he’s not seeing kind of that double coverage and lock down corner on every single play. And with the way these two guys are, teams are not going to stick one guy on Higgins or Boyd and have them follow or follow him around all game, you’re going to get some off coverage, you’re going to get some some, you know, second and third quarterbacks on each one of these guys throughout a game. So opportunities will be there. I don’t see either one of them having a game where they’re completely shut down unless teams are specifically geared into them. And that would mean that they started out on a tear and provided good returns for your fantasy football team. So I find him to be very much the same realm as T Higgins, I think I’d lean Higgens in that direction. But I think around 30s, that that sweet spot, I think you’re gonna see a pretty identical draft position for Tyler Boyd.
Alex 26:12
So Tyler Boyd is very much a feast, or I don’t want to say famine, but like feast or consistent, like, that’s what Tyler Boyd season was. And you know, I mean, he had a couple weeks where he popped off and had, you know, over 100 yards receiving. And you had where he had double digit targets and double digit catches on just just twice, he had double digit catches. And those were obviously his two best games. But then, you know, the rest of the games, you’re looking at, you know, four catches and anywhere in between, you know, four and six or seven catches. That’s kind of where Tyler Boyd was. So it’s, it’s what kind of roll do you have? For a Tyler Boyd? You know, is he going to be a wide receiver three or a flex option? You know, on your roster? That’s kind of where you need to view him, I think going into 221 is that he will, he will get pretty consistent point outages for you. He will put up pretty pretty consistent point totals for you. But it’s not going to be Game Changer type stuff, maybe, you know, a week here and there. But that’s the risk that you run, you know, plugging them into your
Derek 27:28
Yeah, no, I did. I’d agree with you. But Tyler Boyd working out of that slot is really just a consistent guy and has been for several years. And to kind of, you know, a point that you like to bring up here, Alex. Cincinnati really hasn’t had great tight end play. And for several years there. And in the absence of a solid tight end, a quarterbacks best friend becomes kind of that slot receiver, that checkout and kind of guy who necessarily isn’t going to set the world on fire, as far as you know, a burner running routes there, but he has very short hands will catch the ball when thrown there. And it’s really kind of that quintessential possession type of wide receiver in the NFL. So I think you’re going to see him be very good. So you’ll see, I do think you’ll see t Hagen split to the outside and be the outside threat and the deep ball kind of guy. You’ll see Tyler Boyd very much in that slot position and be the possession guy going down the field. And I do think that you’re going to see both of them finished with about 1000 yards. Receiving when it’s all said and done. You’ll see t Higgins be the better touchdown guy. And that’s why I would also be drafting it a little bit higher, but I do see Tyler Boyd probably around that. Right at that fringe wide receiver to spot 2425 somewhere right in there. AJ green most likely will not be on the roster next year for them any desire to talk about AJ green.
Kevin 28:54
I don’t think so. I think AJ green. Thank you for your service and the great fantasy seasons. But AJ green is is very much irrelevant. In fantasy realms. At this point, you can go younger options with far more upside, you can go guys that are about the same age that provide more consistency. As sad as it is to say, you know, one of my Bulldogs but AJ green for 2021 fantasies not even close to being on my radar,
Derek 29:26
john Ross. Any desire to spend any time there.
Kevin 29:30
Is he a free Isn’t he a free agent.
Derek 29:32
I believe he’s also a free agent. Both AJ green and john Ross are because Cincinnati did not pick up the fifth year option.
Kevin 29:39
So so I think john Ross could be interesting depends depending on where he goes. He wants to play football. He got buried on the depth chart. Cincinnati had kind of seen everything that they want to see out of him. He was hampered by injuries the first couple years of his career. But I do think that john Ross Depending on where he goes could be a sneaky sleeper play some someone that you’ll be able to get latent drafts, he still has a ton of speed. He’s still a guy that can can take the top off the defense in the right situation. So I do think john Ross has a wait and see for me
Derek 30:20
already. Let’s go ahead and move on over to the tight ends and CJ Uzma had a bit of a shortened season there really only played two games, finish, you know, tight end 71 What are your thoughts on on CJ was my going into 2021
Alex 30:36
pass? I
Kevin 30:37
think he falls into that third fourth tier of tight end in kind of that mixed bag of goods. He’s not a guy that I’m targeting. He’s a guy that Yeah, I’ll keep an eye out for see how this team evolves with Joe broz quarterback but i i think i could find myself being talked into many different options than TJ
Derek 31:02
So question for you this way then it’s the 12th round you’ve punted the position. You CJ was there are you going that route? Are you going a different direction?
Kevin 31:12
I’d rather go a different direction I call cocomat showed a lot of promise as a rookie in Chicago. I think that I could look in a direction of trying to think who else is going to be around with that option. I think that realm you’re going to get a Blake jarwin or a Dalton Schultz from Dallas, who you’ll see a lot more passing work out of if that kind of answers your question that’s kind of the realm I’m thinking of players I would pivot to as opposed to him
Derek 31:43
fair enough to sample showed a little bit of pop there was you know a guy sought out on the waiver wire a few weeks last year does drew sample you kind of rate on anything more than a waiver wire potential pickup depending upon a week.
Kevin 31:57
For me it was just a small sample size that didn’t amount to much.
Derek 32:03
I see what you did there. I liked it. Alrighty guys, let’s go ahead and move on over to
Alex 32:08
the quarterbacks are meant to do that.
Kevin 32:10
I absolutely meant to do that.
Derek 32:15
Joe burrow in a an injury shortened season finished as qb 25 and his rookie year 264, completions 404 attempts 2688 yards through the air 13 passing touchdown five interceptions. 37 rush attempts for an additional 142 yards, three rushing touchdowns. Guys, your thoughts on Joe burrow.
Kevin 32:41
Joe burrow will be a top tool quarterback in 2021. I like the prospect he showed enough for me in what was that 12 weeks of play that he got through? I I expect good things. I think him him. I think he is going to have a good career. I think also he and Justin Herbert will be a good measuring point for each other based off of where they were drafted, how their careers kind of line up what they’re able to accomplish. Herbert has a has better weapons at the moment for the LA chargers. But Joe burrow is going to be that. more of that gunslinger mentality I think he’s going to be able to continue to propel the bangles to a little bit more prowess than what we’ve seen in the past couple decades really since Carson Palmer was there.
Alex 33:37
I like your your boldness of saying that he’s going to be a top 12 but I’m just trying to you know off the top of my head think about the 11 quarterbacks that would finish in front of them and I honestly I think that there’s there’s more now I think that like I think he’s in the top half of quarterbacks so top 15 I’m okay with being you know, comfortable saying but that’s tough. I think he’s got the ability to be in that top 12 but I’m not there yet.
34:10
Alright, let’s do a little thought exercise here that
Alex 34:12
Yeah.
Kevin 34:14
60 to one just saying how you loved him and how he was becoming no
Alex 34:17
and I yeah. For all of his other stuff, but I just don’t know that he’s there. Yeah. I said he’s been coming. He hasn’t
Kevin 34:27
Kick us off, Derek. All right. I’ve had enough of the shenanigans.
Derek 34:31
Over under. Do you see Joe burrow having over under 600 Pass attempts? Probably over. Okay. Do you see Joe burrow having over under 3500 passing yards? over?
Alex 34:46
Yeah, probably over. Barely, but over? Yeah, not by much.
Derek 34:51
Over under 26 touchdowns over
Alex 34:56
30 Oh, no, I’m under that.
Derek 34:59
Okay. Over Under, do you see him hitting, let’s say for rushing touchdowns next year?
Alex 35:07
under three under and that’s because of the injury.
Derek 35:11
Okay. I mean a lot of what we just described there was very similar to Matt Ryan type of season this past year. And Joe burrow has a lot more mobility than Matt Ryan does. And so kind of looking at that the reason picking out Matt Ryan here Matt Ryan finished at quarterback 12 this past year, over 600 passing attempts now Matt Ryan did put up quite a few more yards through the air was 4500 but I think 35-3600 is going to be the load mark for Joe burrow there this coming year. He was well on that pace before the injury and I think you’re gonna see him put up probably more touchdowns as well. So
Kevin 35:53
I guess damper ability makes up for that yardage deficit to like what you alluded to like, he’s probably gonna be a little bit more cautious. The Bengals are gonna probably, and again, guess his injury was not from him scrambling. It was a freak injury with him stepping into a throw, as his offensive lineman was pushed back into his plant leg. So it’s not like the Carson Wentz injury where he was scrambling, right. It’s not like even the goofy patella dislocation that Pat mahomes had last year when he was diving at the you know, diving at the end zone. It was a freak play like that could happen to any quarterback It was super unlucky. So I don’t think that makes him gun shy when scrambling out of the pocket as long as he feels comfortable with how his body is going back to your point the gap in passing yardage. I think bro makes up some of that gap. He’s not gonna make up 1000 yards on the ground, but he’ll make up I could see him with 300 350 rushing yards and three and three touchdowns for the season. I think that’s well within what you can get out of a 16 game season from from Joe burrow.
Derek 37:06
And quite frankly, I think 3600 yards, which is you know, you talk about the fact that this last year, he was really about 2700 yards and he missed the last five games of the of the season. So really is a rookie Paddy played that just say he does 200 yards per game, which was on the low mark of any of his games out there. He had several games over 300 bid several games right around 200. But when it’s all said and told there, you’re talking about the rookie, probably putting up about 3700 yards. Yep, over a 16 game span. So I think that you’re probably going to see him probably right around that deal. You probably see him put up three 400 yards on the ground to get over 4000 total yards and the additional, you know, three, four more touchdowns through the air that we’re projecting there easily makes up that gap so I can get on board with what you’re saying Kevin and putting them right around, kind of that that back half fringe QB two type of graphic, sorry, fringe QB one type of territory, and that 1213 marks so I can certainly see what you’re going with in saying that plus the fact that Cincinnati is most likely going to have a game script that would lend itself towards him being able to gunslinger that ball and throw the you know 3540 times a game
Kevin 38:22
is the guy I have big stars around if I’m if I’m waiting on quarterback a little bit longer, right? If he if I’m not gonna bite the bullet and go after a mahomes or a Josh Allen, you have Lamar Jackson Aaron Rodgers with what he just did is going to get drafted highly again. But hell if you’re in a super flex League, you could end up with Joe burrow and Matt Ryan or Joe burrow and Matt Stafford and really walk away from your Jeff feeling okay about that, right? Like you don’t necessarily have that. Absolutely home run hitting quarterback. But you have two guys who are arguably top 12 which is a huge thing if you’re playing in a super flex. And even if you’re not playing this reflects if Joe burrows the 10th 11th 12th quarterback off the board, that means you waited you got through and got value at your other positions before you go ahead and pick him up because I don’t see. I don’t see bro being drafted in the top 10 of quarterbacks. He’ll be just outside that. And and really at that point, I can’t think of any better option besides him without really doing a deep dive. Herbert and Joe burrow might be going around the same spot, potentially. I mean, we’ll have to see how some of this plays out. But hell, I’ll take a team with Joe burrow and Justin Herbert right now if I’m going to start a super flex. Let me wait on quarterback a little bit longer. I take those guys in back to back rounds and build my roster around skill position players. I’ll take my chances with that. I’ll stack it up against anybody.
Derek 39:58
I think you’ll see I think You’ll see Justin Herbert taken far ahead of Joe burrow, though I think you’ll probably see eight. Yeah, I would easily see him probably seventh eighth quarterback off the board easily. And I think you’re probably going to see burrow probably closer to that 1314 type of deal there.
Alex 40:17
I’m with you, Derek, I’m with you on that.
Derek 40:20
I just I do think that you’re gonna see a lot of people kind of
Alex 40:24
the recency bias,
Derek 40:26
there’s gonna be a lot of it. But here’s the thing, do you? Do you see Joe burrow coming off the board before or after Matt Stafford. Before? Before by how
Kevin 40:34
much? Round wise or just QB wise? QB wise. Two to three.
Derek 40:40
Okay, because I probably see Matt Stafford probably going off the board and about that 15th spot there. And actually, probably a little bit ahead of that just simply from the standpoint that he did, he just got acquired, and I think a lot of people are gonna blow up this, what his role on the Rams is going to be, but I don’t think you’re gonna see Matt Stafford drastically outperform from a statistical standpoint, what you’re gonna
Alex 41:04
win over there. Not to the end, but not to turn it into a map for discussion, because we will talk about that when we get to LA but I mean, you have to think, though that everybody’s going to see Matt Stafford with all of those weapons that he has in la plus, Sean McVeigh offense like, I think that Stafford is going to have an inflated draft position versus a Joe burrow, but again, we can talk about that another
Kevin 41:30
time. My surfers like Matt Ryan, though, like they’re always the guys you know, you can fall back on and that causes their draft stock to fall. It doesn’t matter what type of season Matt Ryan’s had. He consistently goes.
Alex 41:43
I don’t think that’s gonna be the case this year 12
Kevin 41:45
to 15 Matt Ryan won the MVP in the following season. He was drafted as QB nine. Like, Matt Stafford hasn’t won an MVP. He hasn’t put up I mean, he’s put up decent seasons, I will get into it. You know, yeah, we’ll save it for another day. But that’s just my initial thoughts on it.
Derek 42:05
Alrighty, well, guys, that’ll wrap up the Bengals. Let’s go ahead and take a quick run through here. On the QB carousel. We’ll start with the retire rehire new hire. And really what I’m looking for here is running through on whether, you know these lists of guys, what do you think that they’re going to be? Do you think they’re going to retire? Do you think they’re going to rehire? Or do you think that there’ll be a new hire somewhere else? Go ahead and start with the the biggest name out there. And the biggest question mark on what everybody’s curious about. That’s the Shawn Watson. Do you think that’s a retiree hire new hire?
Kevin 42:42
I’m going to say new hire. I know the Texans have recently made a statement saying that they have no plans on trading deshaun Watson, that doesn’t mean that they’re not accepting phone calls. And they just haven’t seen the right offer yet. Part of it could be a little posturing, right. If they have phone calls, they don’t really love the offers. They’re trying to get the deal. Sweet. And while we don’t want to trade him anyway. We’ll see. I still do not believe deshaun Watson will take a snap for the Houston Texans. So new hire is deshaun Watson for me.
Alex 43:15
I am fully on board with that seconded deshaun Watson has played his last snap for the Texans. Whether or not the Texans actually get the package that they want is a completely different situation. But I don’t think deshaun Watson lines up for Houston in 21.
Derek 43:30
Yeah, I’m right there with you and get us a new hire as well. Let’s go ahead and move on over Carson Wentz. retire, rehire, new hire,
Alex 43:40
he will not play for the Eagles. I just don’t see it happening. I just I just don’t see it happening. I think that that relationship between it wasn’t just Carson and Doug, it was Carson and Howie Roseman. I think that he he saw what they did when it came to drafting Jalen hertz. And that was just, you know, that was the beginning of the end for Carson and Doug for Carson and Howie Roseman and for Carson and Jeffrey Lurie in in Philadelphia, so I don’t see I see the Eagles again asking for the moon. When it comes to it. This is another situation where I don’t think they get what they are asking for. But I don’t see Carson Wentz playing for Philadelphia so I’ll go new hire,
Kevin 44:26
go rehire because the Philadelphia Eagles are stubborn enough that if they don’t get this all star package that they think they deserve for Carson Wentz. They’re gonna sit on him and then just try and figure it out for one more season. So I see Wentz being back in Philadelphia, not because of lack of offers, but just because of sheer arrogance and, and stubbornness out of the Philadelphia Eagles organization.
Derek 44:50
Yeah, I see what you’re saying there with the re hire. And I want I want to agree with you. But I do think that you’re going to see him, move on and be New Hire somewhere else I, I just think that that they’re not going to be able to get on the same page there. And the fact that it sounds like a lot from a lot of the reports kind of reading it sounds like that locker room isn’t necessarily behind him 100% either doesn’t the coaching staff has yet to come out and say Carson’s our guy, which was a new coaching staff, if that was really the case, they would have done so immediately and tried to try to repair that and that hasn’t happened. So I see him moving on.
Kevin 45:27
At what point does he go from a rehire to a new hire? Like once training camp hits? Is he still? Is he rehired? Because he started camp with the Eagles? Like, cuz I could see this happening to like,
Alex 45:40
yeah, that very well.
Kevin 45:41
I’m hedging my bets here a little bit, but I could see them posturing right. And then something happens, you get into otas or something like that. Maybe the draft board doesn’t fall right for a team or something of that nature. And you kind of get into some of these preseason activities. And then the move happens. So we might be splitting hairs at this point. But I could see that happening. So I just need to know if I’d be right or wrong.
Derek 46:08
I’ll put the I’ll put the Cam Newton caveat on it. Right. It was a guy that we did this with last year. It’s where what team is he on? Come week one is how you really know whether he was rehired new hire or retire to it. And that’s, that’s kind of the timeframe we’ll be putting on it. Week One, is he in an Eagles uniform or not?
Alex 46:29
And the reason the reason why I think that you know, I could see that scenario playing out Kevin where, you know, they posture and they wait, but the other reason I see that it may not happen is because the roster bonus that he’s owed. So that’s that’s something that I think might weigh into the decision on on moving him. But just an
Kevin 46:49
extra number one pick, right like it’s the fifth first round pick, they think they deserve for Carson Wentz, essentially. But he adds to the lunacy. demand of Carson Wentz like take two thirds and be done.
47:08
I mean, here we go. this funny thing.
Kevin 47:11
Some of these,
Alex 47:12
some of these, I’ve been reading some of these mock drafts that people put out there for for real life, not fantasy. What the one that the most recent one that I saw, had the Philadelphia Eagles taking Justin fields, and I thought to myself, there’s no way that the Eagles would be dumb enough to take
Derek 47:33
I wouldn’t put a pastor
Alex 47:35
I wouldn’t either. And if that happens, I mean obviously that they their reasoning was that Carson was long gone by the draft time but like why why would you think that they would do that? And and then there’s you have every reason to believe that they will do it. So what a Gong Show in Philadelphia right now. All right.
Kevin 47:53
Would you rather have Carson Wentz or drew lock?
Derek 47:56
Carson Wentz?
Alex 47:58
Carson Wentz and that’s not even a question I know that you’re an apologist Kevin but not even
Kevin 48:02
I’m not a drew Locke apologists I’m simply saying once had more fumbles, he had more interceptions. He had a lower
Alex 48:10
receivers to throw to. And now I’m a Carson Wentz apologist.
Kevin 48:15
Yes, I’m just saying but if you’re gonna I would rather have
Alex 48:19
drew lock 1,000%
Kevin 48:23
If nothing else, I’d take drew lock salary and deal with the exact same statistical output over Carson Wentz.
Alex 48:29
But we’ve seen what drew lock is. We’ve seen what Carson
Kevin 48:33
Wentz is you’re willing to
Alex 48:35
write could be
Kevin 48:37
you. Okay, so you’re willing to write the book on drew lock after starting 17 games in the NFL? Yeah, but you’re not willing. 20
Alex 48:49
caliber player.
Kevin 48:51
Look at the last 20 starts for Carson Wentz. And then look at the 17th starts of drew Locke, move on, you can move me on all you want. I’m simply saying what have you done for me lately? On top of the ridiculous salary that you’re paying wins, the argument can be made drew Locke has a more reasonable choice for an NFL franchise.
Alex 49:11
Five and six for five and 11. franchise Sure.
49:14
Yeah. Go ahead. Alex. I’ll at least
Alex 49:17
when Carson Wentz is five and 11 he’s in a playoff race Damn it. Well,
Derek 49:25
the other problem is too is that you know, the NFC lease doesn’t have to deal with Patrick mahomes that’s fair, or Justin Herbert. I rather good quarterbacks
Alex 49:35
but 1,000% Carson Wentz over i
Derek 49:39
i think Carson Wentz the book is the story’s not done being told on that and I think that you’ll see a bounce back coming. I don’t know that he recaptures the year 2017 glory season. I think that was his absolute ceiling. I think this last season was our absolute floor and the truth of Carson Wentz lies somewhere in the middle of that So interesting to see and we’ll see how that comes to play but jameis Winston, retire, rehire new hire a Curious Case of jameis Winston rehire. Yeah,
Kevin 50:12
he is the st starting quarterback come week one taysom Hill will keep his gimmick roll. And jameis Winston will be Sean Payton’s new toy.
Alex 50:23
I’m on the rehire. I don’t know that he’s the starting quarterback but I’m on the rehire page. I like it. I like it. I like it. Kevin. I like it.
Kevin 50:30
I don’t know that he rehires unless he’s the starting quarterback is my only thing like, if you think that he’s coming back to st or to the saints to be a backup, I would strongly challenge that opinion. He will go elsewhere to fight for a starting job as opposed to coming back to the saints and go, we’re gonna let taysom Hill do this and see how it goes. That was ugly football, and Sean Payton did a good job coaching through those Drew Brees, less weeks that he had to but if I’m if I’m jamis Hell, I can’t do any worse than being a backup for the saints. So I might as well go fight for a job somewhere else and stand a chance of at least getting on the field.
Derek 51:13
I would agree with you. I think he’s a rehire as well. I think the reason we saw so much taysom hill there it was the fact that Peyton had to figure out whether or not he could move forward with pace some Hill as being the starting guy or if that all he was going to be was really that kind of gadget player and change of pace quarterback so to speak. So I think that you’ll see Jamie Swinson back and starting as well, let’s go ahead and move on over to Andy Dalton. What’s at Dalton do this year retire rehired new hire,
Alex 51:42
I like rehire. I think he’s still serviceable as a stopgap for when that comes back. And then he takes the role that he was as a backup in Dallas from the area I still think that he can play in the NFL and be serviceable again not great but serviceable until Dak is 100%
Kevin 52:03
let’s say he’s a new hire I don’t think the Cowboys are gonna want to pay up to keep Andy Dalton around and they’re gonna let them test the waters somewhere else.
Derek 52:09
Yeah, I’d agree with you i plus I also think that you’ll probably see him go somewhere that he could potentially compete for a starting job there right like he’s got some talent he’s got some ability is it you know, top half quarterback? No, but it’s not it wouldn’t be the worst starting quarterback in the league kids here
Kevin 52:30
I could see him go to the Jets if the Jets don’t draft a quarterback right so if the Jets pass on Justin fields and they decided to go offensive line or defensive line and address some other needs that they have. I could see Andy Dalton leave Dallas go to the jets and and see if he can beat out Sam Donald for a starting job. You know, I could depending on what the Colts do or don’t do. I could see him possibly go the Colts to with Philip Rivers retiring. I think they like Jacoby percent they don’t love Jacoby percent and they feel like they’re in a window so I think the Colts are gonna feel the need to do something splashy and Andy Dalton is not splashy so please don’t miss misunderstand what I’m saying but he is the in case of emergency Well, shit. We can always bring this guy in
53:23
Dak Prescott retired, we
Kevin 53:24
hired new hire, rehire, it’ll be a boy, we hire,
Alex 53:30
but probably for not as much money as it would have been prior to this last year.
Kevin 53:36
I would disagree say more because they saw what happened to that team when he’s not under center.
Derek 53:42
Yep. Mitchell trubisky. retire, we hire new hire.
Alex 53:47
Okay, this is I it’s retired, but I don’t think it’s player’s decision. I just I just don’t think that there’s a team out there that’s willing to try and take that, that on and really like Mitchell trubisky is not a bad quarter. He gets a bad rap. And sure he is a bad quarterback but like he’s not. I mean, would you rather have a Mitch trubisky or a Teddy Bridgewater, you know, like, it’s like that kind of, you know, caliber player like he still has a spot, but I just don’t know that any NFL team takes him on?
Kevin 54:20
Would you put it past Kyle Shanahan and john Lynch to bring in Mitch trubisky because they don’t love Jimmy g. and find a way to make that work just to give this to the bears. And say you gave us all these picks to move up for this guy, and you couldn’t make it work. But hey, check this out. We’re gonna get to the playoffs with him.
Alex 54:46
I mean, yeah, that would be awesome. That would be almost as good as Anton Winfield and given the deuces to Tyree kill in the
Kevin 54:53
No no, that’s gonna happen and yeah, that’s big conspiracy theory and spitballing but it is known that the 40 Niners are not in love with Jimmy G. It also is known that you know what? As good as Mitch trubisky played this past season and he really did play well. He really did play well. He won the first three games of the season, and then he came back in. And yes, the bear sputtered down the stretch. But for the most part, Mitch played very well. For his skill set, he’s never going to be a top five quarterback, the 40 Niners kicking the tires on someone like look, we have a great defense, you don’t have to put up a bunch of points. We have a bunch of, you know, offensive weapons around us, whether it’s Jeff Wilson or moster, or debo or Luke And oh, by the way, you have kittel here as your relief blanket. You know, we’re not going to ask you to put up more than, you know, 2324 points a game and we’ll win 10 games that way. out there,
Derek 55:54
we actually have a running system that we can that we can run. And you get to just be more of a game manager than anything else.
Alex 56:01
You would perfect for that San Francisco team. Yeah,
Derek 56:04
yep. Cam Newton retire. We hire new hire
Alex 56:08
to retire camp. Yeah.
Derek 56:10
I think that’s gonna be more on that Player’s Choice type of thing, though. As far as that goes. I don’t know that that played. He’s gonna get hired somewhere else that I don’t think Yeah,
Alex 56:18
I don’t know. I think the Patriots are obviously going to go younger. But yeah, I just don’t see any NFL team taking taken on cam, at least not initially. I mean, I think he’s, you know, he’ll be out there in case of emergency. But I don’t think that
Derek 56:36
our quarterback went down help kind of Yeah. Ryan Fitzpatrick. New Hire
Alex 56:41
is because it’s Fitzpatrick, right. Like, he just won’t
Kevin 56:45
go away to play right. He said he got kind of rejuvenated with his time in Miami. He kind of understood what’s going on there. He’s another guy I could see go to Indianapolis and have a ton of success. That team is win now. Fitzpatrick is is traditionally the best version of himself in the first year with a new team. I mean, I could see him go to Indianapolis and push for it like that Colts team has a bunch of weapons there defensively sound they’re there. They’re still have a lot of young, inexpensive contracts around them. They’re not cash strapped there. They have their draft picks, like there’s all the things that the Colts can offer. Ryan Fitzpatrick, he gets to play inside. Maybe the turf doesn’t help him out as much but at the same time, he’s not playing in bad weather. You play in Houston and Tennessee in Jacksonville. So you don’t have games where you’re playing outside and Lambo or Chicago or things like that. So these are new hire somewhere. Fitzpatrick is going to keep playing the beard will go on.
Alex 57:50
Yes, I’m on board with that.
Derek 57:53
Absolutely. One Ryan Fitzpatrick typically takes deals around that like eight to $10 million dollar range. So even quarterback friendly cons are team friendly contract for a QB that can start for you. Jacoby brissette retire, we hire new hire rehire,
Alex 58:09
but I don’t think he’s a starting quarterback.
Derek 58:12
I’m saying new hire,
Kevin 58:14
I think, I think new hires well, and not because the Colts don’t want him back. I think the Colts like him as that security blanket. I think Jacoby has kind of seen how that path has gone. And who knows. I mean, the Patriots might want to take a flyer on him just to kind of have a stopgap he’s familiar with the organization at least. And he’s the guy that Bella check did like, again, not saying it will happen. I’m just saying that the dots are there for him to have a landing spot and be able to fight for a starting job. So it’s not lack of the Colts wanting him but I think Jacoby will receive at least one offer that’s probably better than knowing he’s gonna play second fiddle to someone in Indianapolis.
Derek 58:58
Agreed. I think he’s also going somewhere else. Drew Brees
Kevin 59:02
retire, say lavi. Congratulations. Thank you, heckuva appreciate. Yeah. Great job, man. You left us with a lot of memories. first ballot Hall of Famer. Yep.
Alex 59:14
taysom Hill, rehired Trump. Hayden’s not gonna move off of that the only reason that that taysom Hill isn’t playing in New Orleans is because Sean Payton is no longer the head coach.
Kevin 59:23
I completely agree with that.
Derek 59:26
The question is because he just got a $20 million dollar tender this past year. Does that continue? Or does he do they make him sign for less this year?
Alex 59:35
I don’t know what New Orleans cap situation is but I can tight? Yeah. But they’ll probably free up some money with Brees retiring, right, like that’ll free up some money. So yeah, I think they’re okay.
Derek 59:47
Okay, guys, that’ll wrap up the retire rehired new hire. Make sure that you’re gonna join us next week when we really start kind of setting the stage as far as some of the NFL prospects and some of these incoming rookies are concern we’re going to start looking at that. Alright guys, I do believe that that’s going to wrap up yet another episode of the good old boys fantasy football podcast. Do us a favor, hop onto wherever you’re listening to this rate the show five star review, leave us. Leave us some comments there. We do read every one of those that comes in and we very much appreciate the feedback. So make sure you’re also following us on the socials twitter instagram facebook at good old boys FF. We’ve got the website for your enjoyment as well. Good old boys ff.com for Kevin and Alex. I’m Derek Have a good one. Be safe.